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Jen Royle: Orioles open to trading Valencia ( Traded to KC for OF David Lough)


Barnaby Graves

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2.4 WAR in 96 games and he's making close to the minimum. This is a very good deal (and the type of deal the A's and Rays consistently make). Savvy.

And, on the other side of the coin, he's had a whopping 374 career at bats. So he could improve - or he could fall off the map.

I'm happy to let the guy compete for playing time, and I'm fine with dumping Valencia for him. I just get the vibe that the O's might consider this the left-handed bat they came into the off-season seeking, and that worries me. Too much of a question mark.

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"David Lough had really good year last year and he's a excellent defensive outfielder," said executive vice president Dan Duquette. "He's a good baserunner, has a good arm and is a solid offensive player. He'll provide us with a replacement for McLouth and also be a backup in center field.

"He's a good hitter, a good baserunner and he has decent power. But he's a terrific defensive outfielder with a good arm. He's a plus-outfielder in left and right, and he can play center, it looks like, about average.

Valencia, 29, batted .304/.335/.553 in 170 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2013. He was considered insurance at third base in case Manny Machado wasn't ready on opening day following knee surgery, as well as the right-handed half of a platoon at designated hitter, but he became expendable after the Orioles selected Michael Almanzar in the Rule 5 draft.

"He had a good year, but it makes sense for us because we picked up Almanzar last week," Duquette said. "Almanzar has a very similar skill set to Valencia, though he' younger. He plays first and third and he's a right-handed hitter who's very good against left-handed pitching."

So, the Orioles found their closer and their left-handed hitting left fielder. They're still in the market for a starting pitcher and perhaps another left-handed bat, and they must decide on a second baseman.

"We're continuing to build our team so we can be a competitor," Duquette said. "Lough gives us a solid left-handed outfielder, a really good defender. He's got a chance to be an everyday ballplayer for us."

source - Roch Kubatko
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And, on the other side of the coin, he's had a whopping 374 career at bats. So he could improve - or he could fall off the map.

I'm happy to let the guy compete for playing time, and I'm fine with dumping Valencia for him. I just get the vibe that the O's might consider this the left-handed bat they came into the off-season seeking, and that worries me. Too much of a question mark.

When you have 100 marbles, you're going to have question marks. Sometimes you have to build enough inventory to offset the risk.

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I'm warming up to the move is this guy really is an all world defender out there in leftfield. And, considering McLouth's batting line for the season was .258/.319/.399, I think Lough can match that (if not better it) for a fraction of the cost. I guess I'm just disappointed in the sense that I wanted an upgrade over McLouth, not a guy who could be a cheaper version of McLouth.

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I'm warming up to the move is this guy really is an all world defender out there in leftfield. And, considering McLouth's batting line for the season was .258/.319/.399, I think Lough can match that (if not better it) for a fraction of the cost. I guess I'm just disappointed in the sense that I wanted an upgrade over McLouth, not a guy who could be a cheaper version of McLouth.

He really is McClouth with an arm less base stealing.

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"He had a good year, but it makes sense for us because we picked up Almanzar last week," Duquette said. "Almanzar has a very similar skill set to Valencia, though he' younger. He plays first and third and he's a right-handed hitter who's very good against left-handed pitching."

Duquette's thoughts (as posted by the Don, above) all make sense except for this... Almanzar has a career .721 minor league OPS vs LHP (.700 vs RHP). It was .822 last season, so that's something I guess. But we're talking about AA pitching. Valencia's a career .879 hitter vs MLB LHP. Almanzar is simply not going to replace Valencia's production next season. No way.

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Valencia was a DH who could only hit left-handed pitching. Not much of a loss if you ask me. This guy at least hits both righties and lefties and is strong defensively. We won this trade.

If he's basically Mclouth with an arm, I'm on board. I loved how strong our OF defense was last year, and if he can go get 'em as good or better than Nate and has an arm to boot, I'm excited. That's not exactly the bat you want from a corner OFer, but we make up for it from other positions.

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Duquette's thoughts (as posted by the Don, above) all make sense except for this... Almanzar has a career .721 minor league OPS vs LHP (.700 vs RHP). It was .822 last season, so that's something I guess. But we're talking about AA pitching. Valencia's a career .879 hitter vs MLB LHP. Almanzar is simply not going to replace Valencia's production next season. No way.

If they find someone better for the job, they send Almanzar back and it only costs them 25K. Until then, they have Almanzar.

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So, your saying Peguero is an atrocious hitter? He's hardly had an opportunity to prove himself at the big league level and has the tools in my opinion to hit .280+ in the majors with even a slight improvement in his pitch selection

Peguero is a below average AAA hitter. Lough is an above average AAA hitter. Look up their numbers, it's a clear distinction between horrible and not good.

At Peguero's age 24 season he put up a .696 OPS in the PCL. Lough put up .783 at age 24. Lough isn't going to be a great hitter, but he's much, much better than Peguero.

Overall, Lough is at .295/.348/.448 career in the PCL to Peguero's .288/.318/.399

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When you have 100 marbles, you're going to have question marks. Sometimes you have to build enough inventory to offset the risk.

Which is understandable. But the O's still have question marks at all the same spots that they came into the offseason with. Want to roll the dice in left? OK, cool - get a safe bet at DH. Or second. Or in the starting rotation.

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