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About Adam Jones' Defense:


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affect these metrics at all??

I mean most runners (not Wieters) go from first to third on any ball hit to the gap against Jacoby Ellsbury, but not against Adam Jones. Do the metrics include how a CF'er controls the running game???

Yes and Jones makes up for much of his range deficiency with his arm according to the metrics. They still show him below average overall.

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The graphs here only show range. Both DRS (Bref) and UZR (Fangraphs) break down the range and arm components of outfielders.

Okay yeah that is where I was getting confused. My biggest issue has always been with the range metrics with outfielders. Look at Jones in 2012, baseball projections.com and BIS look as if they are looking at two completely different players. BP had him as significantly above average, BIS significantly below.

2013, BP has him significantly below average BIS essentially average (-2). I don't get how two groups can look at a supposedly objective thing and get two wildly different results.

Is it something about Jones in particular? The way he plays the game? or is it something about the stats?

interesting, according to BIS Jones had a better year in CF than Trout (Jones Rdrs -2, Trout Rdrs -9)

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Okay yeah that is where I was getting confused. My biggest issue has always been with the range metrics with outfielders. Look at Jones in 2012, baseball projections.com and BIS look as if they are looking at two completely different players. BP had him as significantly above average, BIS significantly below.

2013, BP has him significantly below average BIS essentially average (-2). I don't get how two groups can look at a supposedly objective thing and get two wildly different results.

Is it something about Jones in particular? The way he plays the game? or is it something about the stats?

There are rumblings that something about OPACY negatively impacts both Jones and Markakis. A couple posters have tried to get to the bottom of it in the past.

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There are rumblings that something about OPACY negatively impacts both Jones and Markakis. A couple posters have tried to get to the bottom of it in the past.

I remember Fangraphs or some site looked into it and basically said that there seems to be something there, but we don't know what it is - so, oh well.

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Okay yeah that is where I was getting confused. My biggest issue has always been with the range metrics with outfielders. Look at Jones in 2012, baseball projections.com and BIS look as if they are looking at two completely different players. BP had him as significantly above average, BIS significantly below.

2013, BP has him significantly below average BIS essentially average (-2). I don't get how two groups can look at a supposedly objective thing and get two wildly different results.

Is it something about Jones in particular? The way he plays the game? or is it something about the stats?)

BP's fielding system (FRAA) is relatively new and everything I've read about it is that it's trash. Maybe it has some historical context like TZ, I don't know. I know it considers Cal Ripken as being a below average defender. Also, they don't provide much (if anything) about it's methodology. I tried to research it and didn't find much. The knowledgabe stat guys don't pay much attention to it and neither do I.

FYI, BIS isn't a fielding system, it's a company that provides data. DRS, UZR and TZ as well as other systems use BIS data in addition to other data. In each case, different levels, enhancements and manipulations of BIS data. As far as I know, DRS gets the most enhanced data and makes the more accurate hit classifications. It's my understanding that they started to incorporate hit FX data two years ago. The others have not. For these reasons, I'd be more inclined to believe DRS (particularly for outfielders) over UZR.

Last year DRS had Jones at -2 overall (plus 7 for arm and -9 for range). UZR had Jones at -7.9 overall (-13.2 range,+6.0 arm, +0.3 error rate). It looks like DRS has liked Jones a little better overall for his career but the career rates of efficiency are actually pretty close with Jones doing better in his first couple of years and generally trending more negative overall.

interesting, according to BIS Jones had a better year in CF than Trout (Jones Rdrs -2, Trout Rdrs -9

Yeah, Trout did not rate well last year. We'll probably need a couple more years of data to get a better gauge on where he is. Assuming he wasn't affected by injury last year I'd guess his true level is somewhere in between 2012 and 2013. Still, you need 3-4 years of averaged data for a more accurate analysis. Even with Field FX and the most enhanced technology, defensive stats will never be as stable as offense.

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Jones stepped up his center field play last year by dropping fewer fly balls. I'm a huge stat geek, but I believe *gasp* errors (2010-7, 2011-8, 2012-8) best tell his struggles in the field from 2010 to 2012. They weren't Kenny Lofton Errors; they were errors in the web of his mitt, usually retreating. Glad to see them go down, however. But the one against the Yankees last year should be a -1.0 WAR.

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There are rumblings that something about OPACY negatively impacts both Jones and Markakis. A couple posters have tried to get to the bottom of it in the past.

There used to be published home/away splits indicating this. They don't publish them anymore. The case was stronger for Markakis. Not so much for Jones.

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Jones stepped up his center field play last year by dropping fewer fly balls. I'm a huge stat geek, but I believe *gasp* errors (2010-7, 2011-8, 2012-8) best tell his struggles in the field from 2010 to 2012. They weren't Kenny Lofton Errors; they were errors in the web of his mitt, usually retreating. Glad to see them go down, however. But the one against the Yankees last year should be a -1.0 WAR.

On that note, I'm still really, really curious as to how that ITP home run that Jones allowed last year graded out as. On one hand that ball had some weird side spin and it was really hard to track. On the other hand, it was a freaking ITP home run.

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On that note, I'm still really, really curious as to how that ITP home run that Jones allowed last year graded out as. On one hand that ball had some weird side spin and it was really hard to track. On the other hand, it was a freaking ITP home run.

Probably somewhere close to the value of a double would be my guess.

The game saving HR grabs at the fence are really the ones that can separate DRS and UZR some years. One year I think Jones had six of them. Torrii Hunter used to specialize in those too.

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BP's fielding system (FRA) is relatively new and everything I've read about it is that it's trash. Maybe it has some historical context like TZ. Also, they don't provide much (if anything) about it's methodology. I tried to research it and didn't find much. The knowledgabe stat guys don't pay much attention to it and neither do I.

FYI, BIS isn't a fielding system, it's a company that provides data. DRS, UZR and TZ as well as other systems use BIS data in addition to other data. In each case, different levels, enhancements and manipulations of BIS data. As far as I know, DRS gets the most enhanced data and makes the more accurate hit classifications. It's my understanding that they started to incorporate hit FX data two year ago. The others have not.

Last year DRS had Jones at -2 overall (plus 7 for arm and -9 for range). UZR had Jones at -7.9 overall (-13.2 range,+6.0 arm, +0.3 error rate). It looks like DRS has liked Jones a little better overall for his career but the career rates of efficiency are actually pretty close with Jones doing better in his first couple of years and generally trending more negative overall.

Yeah, Trout did not rate well last year. We'll probably need a couple more years of data to get a better gauge on where he is. Assuming he wasn't affected be injury last year I'd guess his true level is somewhere in between 2012 and 2013. Still, you need 3-4 years of averaged data for a more accurate analysis. Even with Field FX and the most enhanced technology, defensive stats will never be as stable as offense.

Hard to track fly balls without a neck.

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