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DD on the O's CURRENT postseason potential


MrOrange82

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I also look at them play.

Do you think Wieters played to his normal level on defense?

Do you think Jones gets to as many balls as the top CFs do?

Do you think Davis is actually better then average at first?

That isn't what I see, maybe I need a bigger monitor, or glasses.

To me Jones and Davis were about average with Wieters being a tick above.

Did you see runners starting at second being held at third on singles to center? Did you see runners starting at first holding second on singles to center? Those plays show up nowhere on the stat sheet, but they are very important.

Yes, I watched Adam Jones, and he does occasionally misplay a ball, but his day-in, day-out defense in center-field is definitely above average, IMO. My opinion seems to be shared by most people that make their living playing, coaching, managing, or administrating major league baseball.

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Did you see runners starting at second being held at third on singles to center? Did you see runners starting at first holding second on singles to center? Those plays show up nowhere on the stat sheet, but they are very important.

Yes, I watched Adam Jones, and he does occasionally misplay a ball, but his day-in, day-out defense in center-field is definitely above average, IMO. My opinion seems to be shared by most people that make their living playing, coaching, managing, or administrating major league baseball.

Yes they do. All of that gets tracked.

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I also look at them play.

Do you think Wieters played to his normal level on defense?

Do you think Jones gets to as many balls as the top CFs do?

Do you think Davis is actually better then average at first?

That isn't what I see, maybe I need a bigger monitor, or glasses.

To me Jones and Davis were about average with Wieters being a tick above.

I think Jones is top shelf. Davis was fine. And I know you watch.

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We scored more runs on the road than Tampa did, so I question whether their offense was better than ours in any real sense. OPS, wRC+ and other advanced stats are nice, but at the end of the day, actual runs scored are what matters.

I'll grant you that the Orioles' offense is a little overrated due to our home ballpark.

This is actually a really interesting issue with advanced stats.

If OPS correlates to runs scored better then OPS+, then doesn't this suggest OPS is more useful as an indicator of overall offensive production.

Sorted by R. This shows OPS was a better predictor of runs scored in 2013.

Maybe OPS+ is appropriate is other situations, maybe comparing players, but in 2013, OPS was a better measure.

<PRE>

Tm R OBP SLG OPS OPS+

BOS 853 .349 .446 .795 117

DET 796 .346 .434 .780 110

OAK 767 .327 .419 .745 110

BAL 745 .313 .431 .744 99

CLE 745 .327 .410 .737 109

LAA 733 .329 .414 .743 110

TEX 730 .323 .412 .735 99

TOR 712 .318 .411 .729 99

LgAvg 702 .320 .404 .725 100

TBR 700 .329 .408 .737 107

NYY 650 .307 .376 .683 87

KCR 648 .315 .379 .694 89

SEA 624 .306 .390 .695 98

MIN 614 .312 .380 .692 92

HOU 610 .299 .375 .674 86

CHW 598 .302 .378 .680 82

10525 .320 .404 .725 100

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#teams_standard_batting">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 1/5/2014.

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The defense wasn't historically good, it was historically error free.

There is a difference.

The Orioles infield play was very good IMO.

Hpwever, I think that there is a tendency among official scorers to give hits on tough plays that some infielders are unable to make.

It's a pretty subjective observation, but I bet a team breaks the Orioles record in a couple of years based on this trend.

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This is actually a really interesting issue with advanced stats.

If OPS correlates to runs scored better then OPS+, then doesn't this suggest OPS is more useful as an indicator of overall offensive production.

Sorted by R. This shows OPS was a better predictor of runs scored in 2013.

Maybe OPS+ is appropriate is other situations, maybe comparing players, but in 2013, OPS was a better measure.

<PRE>

Tm R OBP SLG OPS OPS+

BOS 853 .349 .446 .795 117

DET 796 .346 .434 .780 110

OAK 767 .327 .419 .745 110

BAL 745 .313 .431 .744 99

CLE 745 .327 .410 .737 109

LAA 733 .329 .414 .743 110

TEX 730 .323 .412 .735 99

TOR 712 .318 .411 .729 99

LgAvg 702 .320 .404 .725 100

TBR 700 .329 .408 .737 107

NYY 650 .307 .376 .683 87

KCR 648 .315 .379 .694 89

SEA 624 .306 .390 .695 98

MIN 614 .312 .380 .692 92

HOU 610 .299 .375 .674 86

CHW 598 .302 .378 .680 82

10525 .320 .404 .725 100

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#teams_standard_batting">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 1/5/2014.

Teams in hitter-friendly parks are going to score more runs, and have a higher OPS, so I don't think team OPS is a better indicator of actual offensive ability than OPS+, though it is a better indicator of how many runs they'll score.

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Yes they do. All of that gets tracked.

They are tracked only in a subjective manner, not on any actual stat sheet. One guy looking at one play in the 2nd inning of a game on June 4 may call a play a 90% play, and call virtually the same play in the 5th inning on June 9 a 75% play. A different guy looking at the same exact plays may call them 80% and 85%. Accounting for defensive alignments are extremely subjective. Defensive metrics are nice guides, but are far from being something we can call accurate. Depending on which one you look at, different results are given. That is because of the inherent subjectivity built into the enterprise. Baltimore's 2013 defense was very good. Adam Jones is a very good center-fielder, and teams hesitate to run on his arm.

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They are tracked only in a subjective manner, not on any actual stat sheet. One guy looking at one play in the 2nd inning of a game on June 4 may call a play a 90% play, and call virtually the same play in the 5th inning on June 9 a 75% play. A different guy looking at the same exact plays may call them 80% and 85%. Accounting for defensive alignments are extremely subjective. Defensive metrics are nice guides, but are far from being something we can call accurate. Depending on which one you look at, different results are given. That is because of the inherent subjectivity built into the enterprise. Baltimore's 2013 defense was very good. Adam Jones is a very good center-fielder, and teams hesitate to run on his arm.

No, it isn't subjective.

They track if a player advances to home or if he stays at third. They track if he goes to third or stays at second. They track if he scores from first on a double.

That isn't subjective.

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Did you see runners starting at second being held at third on singles to center? Did you see runners starting at first holding second on singles to center? Those plays show up nowhere on the stat sheet, but they are very important.

BB-ref tracks this specifically. An average major league CF holds a runner to one base on a single or two bases on a double 44.9% of the time. For Jones, it's 49.4% of the time in his career, 47.7% in 2013. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01-field.shtml. (Scroll down to Advanced Fielding - CF)

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BB-ref tracks this specifically. An average major league CF holds a runner to one base on a single or two bases on a double 44.9% of the time. For Jones, it's 49.4% of the time in his career, 47.7% in 2013. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01-field.shtml. (Scroll down to Advanced Fielding - CF)

Thank you for that information. I wasn't familiar with that particular statistic, and I am glad to see that it does show Jones to be above average, and shows that teams hesitate to run on Jones' arm. Clearly, that is not the reason for Jones being downgraded in any defensive metrics.

I do still believe that the defensive metrics which rate players, such as Jones, are subjective. The same man my rate the same type of plays differently on different days, or even the same day. Different men may well rate the same play differently. I stand by my assessment that the Orioles had a very strong defense in 2013. If others disagree, that is their prerogative.

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Thank you for that information. I wasn't familiar with that particular statistic, and I am glad to see that it does show Jones to be above average, and shows that teams hesitate to run on Jones' arm. Clearly, that is not the reason for Jones being downgraded in any defensive metrics.

I do still believe that the defensive metrics which rate players, such as Jones, are subjective. The same man my rate the same type of plays differently on different days, or even the same day. Different men may well rate the same play differently. I stand by my assessment that the Orioles had a very strong defense in 2013. If others disagree, that is their prerogative.

They probably are, to a degree, subjective. But are they as subjective as a fan's eyes? What we have now is better then what we had five years ago and what we will have in five years will be better yet.

Also you didn't say very strong, you said historically good.

I don't expect you to find many folks that would rate the O's defense lower then "strong".

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Thank you for that information. I wasn't familiar with that particular statistic, and I am glad to see that it does show Jones to be above average, and shows that teams hesitate to run on Jones' arm. Clearly, that is not the reason for Jones being downgraded in any defensive metrics.

I do still believe that the defensive metrics which rate players, such as Jones, are subjective. The same man my rate the same type of plays differently on different days, or even the same day. Different men may well rate the same play differently. I stand by my assessment that the Orioles had a very strong defense in 2013. If others disagree, that is their prerogative.

I'm known to be somewhat skeptical of advanced defensive metrics, but that said, they do show that the Orioles had an outstanding defense in 2013: +3.3 dWAR, +39.9 UZR (3rd in MLB behind the Royals and Diamondbacks). But UZR has our outfield at -6.1, so it was our infield that they judged outstanding.

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