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Chris Davis did not know the Orioles had Offered an Extension?


birdcrazy

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I think I've already answered that in this thread: I'd be willing to give Davis about 7/$115 mm. For what it's worth, in the last six years, only two players have averaged 35 homers a year: Cabrera and Pujols. Only five guys have averaged 100 RBI/year: Cabrera, Fielder, Gonzalez, Pujols and Howard. All five of those guys make a lot more money than what I'd be willing to pay Davis right now. Cabrera is the only one who's earning it, and the other four all had a better track record than Davis when they signed their current contracts.

This is a smart dude that is crushing the Davis analysis. I think your on point with everything you're writing in this discussion, sir.

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I think I've already answered that in this thread: I'd be willing to give Davis about 7/$115 mm. For what it's worth, in the last six years, only two players have averaged 35 homers a year: Cabrera and Pujols. Only five guys have averaged 100 RBI/year: Cabrera, Fielder, Gonzalez, Pujols and Howard. All five of those guys make a lot more money than what I'd be willing to pay Davis right now. Cabrera is the only one who's earning it, and the other four all had a better track record than Davis when they signed their current contracts.
Then, do you think Davis could sustain his 2012 .270 .326 .501 .827 33 HR, 85 RBI, numbers over 6-7 years ? What might that be worth, not what you would pay? You are obviously below market rates.
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I don't think this conclusion is obvious at all. I think the more likely conclusion is that the owner doesn't really give a hoot about winning. He probably wants to be just competitive enought to maximize profit... and certainly is adverse to long term guaranteed contracts.

I think others differ with your opinion. I think it may be a bit simplistic.

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Then, do you think Davis could sustain his 2012 .270 .326 .501 .827 33 HR, 85 RBI, numbers over 6-7 years ? What might that be worth, not what you would pay? You are obviously below market rates.

Am I? BB-ref says Davis' 2012 season was worth 1.6 rWAR. fangraphs says he was worth 2.0 fWAR. I'd say paying $16.5 mm/yr for that is extremely rich. I wouldn't be proposing 7/$115 mm if I thought that is all he would do. If you assume that 1 WAR is now worth about $6 mm, that he'd be worth about $12 mm/yr tops for that level of production.

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Am I? BB-ref says Davis' 2012 season was worth 1.6 rWAR. fangraphs says he was worth 2.0 fWAR. I'd say paying $16.5 mm/yr for that is extremely rich. I wouldn't be proposing 7/$115 mm if I thought that is all he would do. If you assume that 1 WAR is now worth about $6 mm, that he'd be worth about $12 mm/yr tops for that level of production.
I think some of that WAR was due to spending a lot of time at DH. I think you could assume a higher value than that if he is primarily a 1B. So that might be about 7/100 M +. I don't think Davis would get much more than that were he a FA this year because their isn't that strong a market for him this year. But there will be in 2015-16. Which is why you would have to offer more than 7/115M to extend him. As I said it's a moot point because the O's wouldn't offer more than 7/110M and Davis wouldn't accept that, IMO.
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I think some of that WAR was due to spending a lot of time at DH. I think you could assume a higher value than that if he is primarily a 1B.

I'm not sure this is correct. According to BB-ref, Davis received a "positional adjustment" of -10 runs in each year, and his dWAR was -1.6 in each year. fangraphs had him at -10.5 runs in 2012 and -13.5 in 2013.

That said, I don't think the real FA market always tracks WAR that well. I do think someone deemed a competent 1B is worth more in the marketplace than a DH with the same offensive stats.

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I am not sure about how this will affect the Davis talks. I guess you have to give a serious number to actually get the ball rolling. Also for the people who said the Braves have issues like the Orioles,I can see Wieters going to the Braves.

Freeman's extension will be "huge," reports Morosi (on Twitter). One source tells Morosi that the deal is in the $100MM range, clearly indicating the Braves have secured multiple free agent years with this new contract.

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I am not sure about how this will affect the Davis talks. I guess you have to give a serious number to actually get the ball rolling. Also for the people who said the Braves have issues like the Orioles,I can see Wieters going to the Braves.

Freeman's extension will be "huge," reports Morosi (on Twitter). One source tells Morosi that the deal is in the $100MM range, clearly indicating the Braves have secured multiple free agent years with this new contract.

Meh. Freeman's extension isn't huge to Scott Boras. 8/125 M is way out of PA's range though.
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So would you be willing to give Davis a little over 15 mil a year for eight years?
Oh Absolutely. Davis keeps himself in good shape, is surprisingly athletic, and would be productive through age 36, IMO. But I'm not Scott Boras, PA, or CD, none of whom would find that contarct acceptable.
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Oh Absolutely. Davis keeps himself in good shape, is surprisingly athletic, and would be productive through age 36, IMO. But I'm not Scott Boras, PA, or CD, none of whom would find that contarct acceptable.

I think signing Davis to the age of 36 is kinda on the insane side. I don't think Boras will settle 7/8 year deal, it will either have to be 5 or 10 years. Signing him for 5/$75m is splitting the baby on what he's probably seeking. It'll allow Davis to test the market or resign later at 34/35. But we get Davis for 4 years post arb years while not breaking the bank.

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I think signing Davis to the age of 36 is kinda on the insane side. I don't think Boras will settle 7/8 year deal, it will either have to be 5 or 10 years. Signing him for 5/$75m is splitting the baby on what he's probably seeking. It'll allow Davis to test the market or resign later at 34/35. But we get Davis for 4 years post arb years while not breaking the bank.

I don't think you can get Davis' age 29-33 seasons for $15 mm/yr. 5 years is going to cost $100 mm, or close.

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I don't think you can get Davis' age 29-33 seasons for $15 mm/yr. 5 years is going to cost $100 mm, or close.

Davis will be 29 for the O's next year, his last Arb year (makes him a FA in 2016). So if he stays or goes in FA, we got him until 2016 FA. So that's a give me year. His current contract is $10m. Basically the what contract would look like is..

Just quick numbers and payout can change:

2015: $12m

2016: $13m

2017: $14m

2018: $15m

2019: $16m

5/$75m

It's a pay increase each year. But say we bump it to 5/$80m. Give him $21m in 2019 or spread it out. No big deal. This is what Davis is worth now. If he blows 2013 out of the water with an amazing season in 2014 then his value will skyrocket him and he'll be on the trading block for some talent. But no way O's pass the $90m on 5 year deal, and certainly no way the O's payout $180m for 10 years.

He either signs at $75m-$80m for 5 years (better deals then AJ and Markakis) or Davis is not an O come August 2015.

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At this point, Boras won't allow Davis to sign for anything less then what Freddie Freeman got (8/125m). Comparible or not, thats the world Boras lives in. 8/125 is the starting point. Time he throws in the top 3 in GG and MVP voting, the 50 HR, Boras probably sees Davis as a 20m a year player right now. 7/140 is probably close to what Boras thinks. And he will probably want an opt out clause after 3 or 4 years.That seems to be the new thing.

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