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Dan Duquette can't get the financial go-ahead from owner Peter Angelos to meet Morales' asking price


Greg

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Maybe if the high variance SP produces at the top end of his ability. But the Orioles needed to replace the performance of 9 SP who combined for horrible numbers, with a full season of what we got from Feldman and Norris for a partial season last year. Tillman, Chen, Gonzo, Feldman and Norris combined for 108 GS, 43-29 W/L. 6 IP/GS, for a 3.98 ERA. They already have Norris and adding a Feldman for a full season would have made us competitive. Jimenez might be better but he could be worse. We didn't need to spend 4/50M to fill that hole for a year or two.

Feldman signed for 3/30. Jimenez signed for 4/50 (with some money deferred, correct?). The O's aren't going to get Morales for $2 million a season.

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Feldman signed for 3/30. Jimenez signed for 4/50 (with some money deferred, correct?). The O's aren't going to get Morales for $2 million a season.
Had we signed Feldman for 10M per we would have been at about 92M. That would leave us about 8M for Morales. But I didn't want Feldman, just someone whom I could count on to slot in between Gonzo and Norris for no more than two years. Colon, Hudson and Arroyo would have been better fits for that than Jimenez IMO. Jimenez could slot anywhere from in front of Tillman to behind Norris, depending. 4/50M is too much for that kind of a question mark. That said, having backed themselves into a corner by not being aggressive, I am ok with Jimenez. He was the best option left, and we had to sign another SP to be competitive, IMO.
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Maybe if the high variance SP produces at the top end of his ability.

Of course that's what they're betting on. If he's a zero, well, that's fine... it's only a win or two worse than your mid-case for Feldman and you weren't likely to win anything anyway. But if he's a 5-6 win pitcher then you really have someone pushing you towards the playoffs.

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Had we signed Feldman for 10M per we would have been at about 92M. That would leave us about 8M for Morales. But I didn't want Feldman, just someone whom I could count on to slot in between Gonzo and Norris for no more than two years. Colon, Hudson and Arroyo would have been better fits for that than Jimenez IMO. Jimenez could slot anywhere from in front of Tillman to behind Norris, depending. 4/50M is too much for that kind of a question mark. That said, having backed themselves into a corner by not being aggressive, I am ok with Jimenez. He was the best option left, and we had to sign another SP to be competitive, IMO.

None of those other guys have the ability to rip off a Cy Young caliber season, and the O's need high-end talent performing near the top of their ability to have a decent chance of winning anything. Arroyo turns a 83-win team into a 84 or 85-win team, almost no chance of anything more. Jimenez might make an 83-win team an 83-win team, or it might make them a wildcard winner.

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None of those other guys have the ability to rip off a Cy Young caliber season, and the O's need high-end talent performing near the top of their ability to have a decent chance of winning anything. Arroyo turns a 83-win team into a 84 or 85-win team, almost no chance of anything more. Jimenez might make an 83-win team an 83-win team, or it might make them a wildcard winner.

Absolutely. Like he did for Cleveland.

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None of those other guys have the ability to rip off a Cy Young caliber season, and the O's need high-end talent performing near the top of their ability to have a decent chance of winning anything. Arroyo turns a 83-win team into a 84 or 85-win team, almost no chance of anything more. Jimenez might make an 83-win team an 83-win team, or it might make them a wildcard winner.
I know you can't understand this, but an Arroyo gives you innings and keeps you in the game. With an offense like the O's, that means more W's than not. Arroyo had 22 QS and Jimenez had 16. I don't care if Ubaldo pitches 3 CG SO and has a lower ERA and better peripherals, if he doesn't manage to go 6 and 3 that often.
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None of those other guys have the ability to rip off a Cy Young caliber season, and the O's need high-end talent performing near the top of their ability to have a decent chance of winning anything. Arroyo turns a 83-win team into a 84 or 85-win team, almost no chance of anything more. Jimenez might make an 83-win team an 83-win team, or it might make them a wildcard winner.
I know you can't understand this, but an Arroyo gives you innings and keeps you in the game. With an offense like the O's, that means more W's than not. Arroyo had 22 QS and Jimenez had 16. I don't care if Ubaldo pitches 3 CG SO and has a lower ERA and better peripherals, if he doesn't manage to go 6 and 3 that often.

I asked Jim Duquette, Mel Antonen, and Dan Connolly if the Orioles were in a seven game series in the post season who they would rather have for games 1,3, and 7. Ubaldo or Bronson. All three said Ubaldo.

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I know you can't understand this, but an Arroyo gives you innings and keeps you in the game. With an offense like the O's, that means more W's than not. Arroyo had 22 QS and Jimenez had 16. I don't care if Ubaldo pitches 3 CG SO and has a lower ERA and better peripherals, if he doesn't manage to go 6 and 3 that often.

This FanGraphs article supports Drungo's view. In it, Matt Hunter concludes that a more inconsistent pitcher actually contributes slightly more wins for his team than a steadily average pitcher.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-value-in-pitcher-inconsistency/

Sill, I think that type of analysis might miss some of the benefits of consistent solidness from a starting pitcher. Bullpen use, psychology, etc.

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I asked Jim Duquette, Mel Antonen, and Dan Connolly if the Orioles were in a seven game series in the post season who they would rather have for games 1,3, and 7. Ubaldo or Bronson. All three said Ubaldo.
I would say that as well. But I you don't get Arroyo to pitch in the WS, you get him to get you there. The guy gives you more chances to win on average over the course of the season, by keeping you in games, and keeping your bullpen out of them.
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This FanGraphs article supports Drungo's view. In it, Matt Hunter concludes that a more inconsistent pitcher actually contributes slightly more wins for his team than a steadily average pitcher.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-value-in-pitcher-inconsistency/

Sill, I think that type of analysis might miss some of the benefits of consistent solidness from a starting pitcher. Bullpen use, psychology, etc.

If pitcher A gives you a chance to win 57 % of his GS and pitcher B gives you 0% which pitcher is likely to help you win games?
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I know you can't understand this, but an Arroyo gives you innings and keeps you in the game. With an offense like the O's, that means more W's than not. Arroyo had 22 QS and Jimenez had 16. I don't care if Ubaldo pitches 3 CG SO and has a lower ERA and better peripherals, if he doesn't manage to go 6 and 3 that often.

I would rather have a guy with a 1.50 in half his starts and a 6.00 in the others than one who is a bit below average but "keeps you in the game" all the time.

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You are absolutely right. A pitcher who never wins is useless. My God, how stupid is Duquette for spending $48M on a .000 pitcher?!?!

This makes absolutely no sense. I'm not talking about wins, I'm talking about QS. Pitchers don't win games, teams win games.

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