Jump to content

Walks Are Not as Good as Hits


gpolee

Recommended Posts

This thread is still kicking? I don't think anyone is arguing your main thesis here. Hits are better than walks, that's a given.

However, when you try to make your point by suggesting that Manny Machado was a better hitter than Chase Headley last year, that's where you cross the line into fantasy land.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 219
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I originally posted this because some wanker wrote an article claiming Justin Smoak would produce more runs than Nelson Cruz...because Smoak's OBP was 7 points higher last year - despite having a BA 30 points lower in 2013 and a career OBP 13 points lower than Cruz's. I, for one, am happier with Cruz in the lineup than Smoak. And I hope for Smoak's sake his gets the eff out of Safeco so we can see whether he will ever live up to his expectations.

This is an interesting comp, as Smoak's line drive rate and strikeout rate are pretty comparable to Cruz's. His walk rate is higher, but home run rate is lower (probably because he plays in Seattle). Cruz's HR % was very high last year and probably will regress more towards his career average. Smoak was generally more unlucky than Cruz resulting in a lower BA, but he would have a somewhat lower BA all things equal due to the lower home run rate.

I think they could produce a similar value at the plate this year based on all of these factors, but Smoak plays at a position (1B) where the average production is significantly higher, so Cruz is more valuable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is an interesting comp, as Smoak's line drive rate and strikeout rate are pretty comparable to Cruz's. His walk rate is higher, but home run rate is lower (probably because he plays in Seattle). Cruz's HR % was very high last year and probably will regress more towards his career average. Smoak was generally more unlucky than Cruz resulting in a lower BA, but he would have a somewhat lower BA all things equal due to the lower home run rate.

I think they could produce a similar value at the plate this year based on all of these factors, but Smoak plays at a position (1B) where the average production is significantly higher, so Cruz is more valuable.

Smoak has been unluckier every year - 40 points unluckier, career. At some point, "unlucky" just doesn't explain it anymore. I do believe that ballpark effect and quality of lineup have negatively impacted Smoak's numbers, however. Smoak's age (27) is his biggest advantage over Cruz.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...
This thread is still kicking? I don't think anyone is arguing your main thesis here. Hits are better than walks, that's a given.

However, when you try to make your point by suggesting that Manny Machado was a better hitter than Chase Headley last year, that's where you cross the line into fantasy land.

I'd take Manny 2013 over Headley 2013. The sabermetrics would suggest Manny was the better hitter, too -- though by just a hair.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd take Manny 2013 over Headley 2013. The sabermetrics would suggest Manny was the better hitter, too -- though by just a hair.

Actually they wouldn't:

2013 Headley .330 woba

2013 Machado .325 woba

Gets worse when considering Park factor:

2013 Headley 113 wRC+

2013 Machado 103 wRC+

2013 Headley was 10% better than Machado at creating runs.

Keep spinning your head in circles though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd take Manny 2013 over Headley 2013. The sabermetrics would suggest Manny was the better hitter, too -- though by just a hair.
Actually they wouldn't:

2013 Headley .330 woba

2013 Machado .325 woba

Gets worse when considering Park factor:

2013 Headley 113 wRC+

2013 Machado 103 wRC+

2013 Headley was 10% better than Machado at creating runs.

Keep spinning your head in circles though.

This thread was started before this season began, was dead for for five months, and now we're going to resuscitate an argument about whether Headley was a better hitter than Machado in 2013? We're more than four months into 2014, boys. Bury the subject. It's not very relevant at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thread was started before this season began, was dead for for five months, and now we're going to resuscitate an argument about whether Headley was a better hitter than Machado in 2013? We're more than four months into 2014, boys. Bury the subject. It's not very relevant at this point.

Thanks for being the decider on what should be discussed Frobby. I didn't bump this worthless thread. This thread is so stupid it could have been closed the day it was opened imo. Since it hasn't, I've responded a few times to it. Too bad you aren't a moderator and could close it. That said, the thread really isn't about Headley vs Machado. It's about gpolee's mind numbingly stupid "hits are better than walks" insight and analysis. Most of which, like the last one, have been factually wrong.

But yeah, this thread has over 6,750 views, so dumb is good for business I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thread was started before this season began, was dead for for five months, and now we're going to resuscitate an argument about whether Headley was a better hitter than Machado in 2013? We're more than four months into 2014, boys. Bury the subject. It's not very relevant at this point.

Walks are definitely better than flailing wildly at a 59 foot slider for strike 3 :eek:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...