I don't think the way we are winning is sustainable

[calmunderfire]

In 2012 the american league average was 4.45 runs a game and we were at 4.40. This season the AL is 4.25 and we are at 4.20. So the exact same .05 runs less the league average.

Good post man. I like the AL rankings though. When I look at how we stack up statistically I always see where we rank among the AL teams. I think we are currently 7th in runs scored in the AL.

[OriolesandTerps]

But yeah, it would be great if Jones, Cruz, Davis, and Pearce got hot at the same time. I am being lazy, anyone know off hand our record in one run games?

[bpilktree]

As bad as the offense has been since the break they are not far off league average.

The league averge is 19 games played and 76 runs.

Orioles have played 19 games and 70 runs going into tonight.

[gmelson26]

Yawn.

Another Orioles series win over a good team. Another complaint about the way they do it.

Unless they win in a rout, scoring many runs and not allowing any, some people will complain.

Noone's complaining about winning a series! He's merely having a discussion about how the offense currently projects in the playoffs or down the stretch.

[Palmoripken]

Fair point but just like winning like this isn't sustainable. The bats aren't going to be that poor either. They just have to keep on playing day by day. The best thing this team does is not let crushing losses get to them.

Hutchinson one hits them and only allows one other baserunner and they bounce right back tonight.

[foxfield]

HEAR YE HEAR YE!!!!!!

The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!!

This means you Firestone!

Who's next? Bring em!

[Loophole]

Mediocre compared to who? The NL Central maybe. That might have been true a third of the way through the season, but I don't think that the AL East is mediocre...not great maybe, but no longer "weak" or "mediocre".

We know what we've done. Toronto would be 2nd by a similar amount in almost every other division. Our 3rd place team just rolled Detroit.

The Rays and Red Sox are completely out of it.

The Yankees have holes at most positions. Yangervis Solarte has the 4th most WAR in their lineup and they're still starting Derek Jeter. They have no pitching outside the bullpen and the DL. It doesn't matter that they just rolled over Detroit because anything can happen in a single series.

The Blue Jays have the same exact amount of hitting WAR as the O's, despite the common perception, and their pitchers beat us by a whopping 1. That's FIP-based, too, which never shines on the O's. Their starters aren't good, their bullpen is iffy and their defense is terrible. They're probably a better team on paper than the Orioles, and a better team going forward, but not better enough to overcome the lead.

No one in this division stands out.

[brianod]

Fair point but just like winning like this isn't sustainable. The bats aren't going to be that poor either. They just have to keep on playing day by day. The best thing this team does is not let crushing losses get to them.

Hutchinson one hits them and only allows one other baserunner and they bounce right back tonight.

I agree with you. There is an innate toughness to this team that I believe comes from Buck. They almost always find a way to win the day after a crushing loss. Good for them and good for Buck.

[allquixotic]

AJ Happ retired 14 in a row and achieved a strikeout high for him. Bullpen came in and retired three in a row. So, needing an insurance run, we went 0-17. If we want to go far in the playoffs, or even make the playoffs, our O has got to get better.

Except for specific, fairly short-lived hot streaks where it seems like someone in our starting 9 could bat .750 off of Clayton Kershaw in 10 consecutive games against him, this club's offense is mainly one that takes advantage of mistakes.

If the opposing pitcher keeps the ball down in the zone and out of the power zone of the mashers, they're just going to hit the ball into the infield, pop out, or K. Or maybe walk if they're very patient. The extra base hits don't show up in droves unless the opposing pitcher is just bad (or is good but happens to throw one terrible pitch that our guy recognizes out of the hand and hits it a long way).

You can look at this two ways: one, it's great that we have so many homers because it shows that we absolutely kill bad pitching. The winning formula in those games is dead simple: hit the ball out of the ballpark and score a lot of runs. It doesn't matter what the pitching or defense do -- not really -- in those kinds of games.

The other way to look at it is, if we run into a pitcher who's on top of his game and remains effective for 7-8 innings, painting the corners, keeping the ball down, with swing and miss stuff, then we are going to basically rely on our starter and our bullpen to match theirs pitch for pitch, if not even better. That doesn't bode well for our chances in playoff games, since most pitchers participating in a playoff game are at least above average, and many of the starters will be among the elite of MLB.

But remember, over a 162-game regular season, you are going to have a ridiculous number of opportunities against below average or even bad pitchers, some who don't belong in the ML at all, when we face losing clubs after the trade deadline and they've sold all their decent pitching for prospects. We should expect to have a ridiculously high winning percentage against those bums, with the bats putting up crooked numbers like crazy against mediocre to bad pitching. That could help make up for what would otherwise be a less than stellar record against the pitching elite of the league.

I think much of the reason for our recent winning ways is thanks to a temporary but much-needed streak of (1) excellent pitching performances, and (2) pure luck. You're right, it won't last forever. And we'd be significantly worse off if we hadn't been lucky or if we hadn't had a dozen or so really good starts in low-scoring games when we absolutely needed that to have a chance to win. But that's neither here nor there -- the fact remains that it's happened, and it's great, and we're all loving it. The thing that really keeps me positive is that many of the really grueling starting pitcher matchups are already behind us, so in my eyes, it's almost a foregone conclusion that the bats will come alive in a BIG way when we start facing SPs with 4.5 or 5.5 ERAs.

The chances of us making the playoffs are VERY good, thanks to the combination of factors that have gotten us this far with this much of a lead in the division. I wouldn't bet money on us doing much in the playoffs, but I expect we'll be in the ALDS again this year (which means I think we'll either win the division, or get a wildcard game, and the boys will man up and win the one-game playoff again and take us to the "real" postseason). Our inability to hit elite pitching may cost us the championship, but any way you look at it, the Orioles will finish 2014 as one of the top clubs in the league.

[brianod]

Noone's complaining about winning a series! He's merely having a discussion about how the offense currently projects in the playoffs or down the stretch.

Thank you! I'm not complaining about winning, I'm simply stating the fact that we have the worst BA and OBP in the league since the break and we aren't going anywhere if that doesn't change. I sense a lot of smugness on this board about how good we are but if we continue with the worst BA and OBP throughout the second half, we'll be lucky to win the division.

[VeveJones007]

The Birds are 65-49, with 48 games left, if they play .500 ball, that is 89 wins, most likely with the Division. If they play .555 ball (which would be a slight regression off of the .570 ball they are currently playing), that is 92 wins for the division and perhaps home field, playing the Wild Card. Color me punch drunk, but I like our odds.

Good perspective post, but 92 wins isn't going to be tops in the AL. It will take something like 97-99 wins.

[VeveJones007]

Thank you! I'm not complaining about winning, I'm simply stating the fact that we have the worst BA and OBP in the league since the break and we aren't going anywhere if that doesn't change. I sense a lot of smugness on this board about how good we are but if we continue with the worst BA and OBP throughout the second half, we'll be lucky to win the division.

Do you think that is likely to continue? Do you believe this offense capable of having the worst BA and OBP in the AL for an entire half of the season?

I do not. They will regress back toward their mean. If anything, I'm glad they're getting this tough stretch out of the way now, rather than in late September/early October like in 2012.

[brianod]

Except for specific, fairly short-lived hot streaks where it seems like someone in our starting 9 could bat .750 off of Clayton Kershaw in 10 consecutive games against him, this club's offense is mainly one that takes advantage of mistakes.

If the opposing pitcher keeps the ball down in the zone and out of the power zone of the mashers, they're just going to hit the ball into the infield, pop out, or K. Or maybe walk if they're very patient. The extra base hits don't show up in droves unless the opposing pitcher is just bad (or is good but happens to throw one terrible pitch that our guy recognizes out of the hand and hits it a long way).

You can look at this two ways: one, it's great that we have so many homers because it shows that we absolutely kill bad pitching. The winning formula in those games is dead simple: hit the ball out of the ballpark and score a lot of runs. It doesn't matter what the pitching or defense do -- not really -- in those kinds of games.

The other way to look at it is, if we run into a pitcher who's on top of his game and remains effective for 7-8 innings, painting the corners, keeping the ball down, with swing and miss stuff, then we are going to basically rely on our starter and our bullpen to match theirs pitch for pitch, if not even better. That doesn't bode well for our chances in playoff games, since most pitchers participating in a playoff game are at least above average, and many of the starters will be among the elite of MLB.

But remember, over a 162-game regular season, you are going to have a ridiculous number of opportunities against below average or even bad pitchers, some who don't belong in the ML at all, when we face losing clubs after the trade deadline and they've sold all their decent pitching for prospects. We should expect to have a ridiculously high winning percentage against those bums, with the bats putting up crooked numbers like crazy against mediocre to bad pitching. That could help make up for what would otherwise be a less than stellar record against the pitching elite of the league.

I think much of the reason for our recent winning ways is thanks to a temporary but much-needed streak of (1) excellent pitching performances, and (2) pure luck. You're right, it won't last forever. And we'd be significantly worse off if we hadn't been lucky or if we hadn't had a dozen or so really good starts in low-scoring games when we absolutely needed that to have a chance to win. But that's neither here nor there -- the fact remains that it's happened, and it's great, and we're all loving it. The thing that really keeps me positive is that many of the really grueling starting pitcher matchups are already behind us, so in my eyes, it's almost a foregone conclusion that the bats will come alive in a BIG way when we start facing SPs with 4.5 or 5.5 ERAs.

The chances of us making the playoffs are VERY good, thanks to the combination of factors that have gotten us this far with this much of a lead in the division. I wouldn't bet money on us doing much in the playoffs, but I expect we'll be in the ALDS again this year (which means I think we'll either win the division, or get a wildcard game, and the boys will man up and win the one-game playoff again and take us to the "real" postseason). Our inability to hit elite pitching may cost us the championship, but any way you look at it, the Orioles will finish 2014 as one of the top clubs in the league.

good post, I agree

[Teddy OBP]

The Rays and Red Sox are completely out of it.

The Yankees have holes at most positions. Yangervis Solarte has the 4th most WAR in their lineup and they're still starting Derek Jeter. They have no pitching outside the bullpen and the DL. It doesn't matter that they just rolled over Detroit because anything can happen in a single series.

The Blue Jays have the same exact amount of hitting WAR as the O's, despite the common perception, and their pitchers beat us by a whopping 1. That's FIP-based, too, which never shines on the O's. Their starters aren't good, their bullpen is iffy and their defense is terrible. They're probably a better team on paper than the Orioles, and a better team going forward, but not better enough to overcome the lead.

No one in this division stands out.

Fair enough points. I think we could find similar holes on almost every other team in other divisions as well. Toronto and NY, despite their flaws, would be 2nd and 3rd almost everywhere else too.

I'm not saying the division is great, but they deserved some credit for winning games however they're doing it and so do we. I also am a little terrified that the Yankees aren't done...wouldn't surprise me if they raided Philly or someone else prior to the post-waiver deadline.

Either way, screw em, we're winning this thing.

[Ruzious]

HEAR YE HEAR YE!!!!!!

The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!!

This means you Firestone!

Who's next? Bring em!

Picturing the 7th inning stretch at Camden Yards. 3 guys walk up to the infield as if they own the place. Mssrs Britton, Miller, and O'Day shout into the mike - We got 2 words for ya. The crowd joins them in unison... Bull Pen!