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I don't think the way we are winning is sustainable


brianod

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On one hand I agree, but at the same time there's nothing that the offense is doing right now that I haven't known for three years now. They're streaky, at times frustrating, and at times down right horrid. They're also capable of beating the ever loving crap out of the opposition and carrying the team for weeks on end. Nothing about that is new, we've known it since 2012.

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AJ Happ retired 14 in a row and achieved a strikeout high for him. Bullpen came in and retired three in a row. So, needing an insurance run, we went 0-17. If we want to go far in the playoffs, or even make the playoffs, our O has got to get better.

J.A Happ is a half decent pitcher. We are 1st in HR, 10th in runs scored and 8th in hits, 6th in slugging and 11th in OPS....not the best offense in the league but not an incapable one by a long shot. Its 162 games and taking any one game or small sample and trying to draw conclusions from it is just shortsighted.

I agree it would be nice to see the bats break out in a big way but my point remains ....we have faced some of the best pitchers in baseball in this 31 game stretch and I agree we have struggled offensively but what else do you expect that has a basis in reality? Good pitchers will hold down good bats...that's why they are good. Right now our pitchers are matching up very well and doing enough to win games for us.

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The offense may be down, but the pitching has been up and I don't think we should be considered over the long haul. Yes, they may regress, but you also have to remember that many of the pitchers credited Dave Wallace and the accountability amongst the starters as a big reason as to why they pitched well over the past two months.

All of our starters have sub-4 ERAs (except for Ubaldo), which is enough for us down the stretch in my opinion.

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FanGraphs projects us to regress to a .500 team and still taking the division by 4 games. And more wins than any other team competing for the second wild card. 78% playoff chances. When you have a 5-game lead in a mediocre division you have a cushion.

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The Birds are 65-49, with 48 games left, if they play .500 ball, that is 89 wins, most likely with the Division. If they play .555 ball (which would be a slight regression off of the .570 ball they are currently playing), that is 92 wins for the division and perhaps home field, playing the Wild Card. Color me punch drunk, but I like our odds.

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When you have a 5-game lead in a mediocre division you have a cushion.

Mediocre compared to who? The NL Central maybe. That might have been true a third of the way through the season, but I don't think that the AL East is mediocre...not great maybe, but no longer "weak" or "mediocre".

We know what we've done. Toronto would be 2nd by a similar amount in almost every other division. Our 3rd place team just rolled Detroit.

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