Markakis on 2nd, 1 out, Jones at the plate....

[weams]

Cough *Aaron* cough.

Hank was simply acutely attentive.

[tntoriole]

I never compared him to Pujols on steroids. Whoops. Did I say that?

Ok...leave out Pujols, Bonds. Adam is not an elite player like Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle. Those players hit for more power with much fewer strikeouts and many more walks than Adam. I just believe Adam could have been in that category if he were more selective at the plate.

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[Can_of_corn]

Hank was simply acutely attentive.

Says you.

I don't think so. (and yes I have no proof)

[Can_of_corn]

Ok...leave out Pujols, Bonds. Adam is not an elite player like Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle. Those players hit for more power with much fewer strikeouts and many more walks than Adam. I just believe Adam could have been in that category if he were more selective at the plate.

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I don't think there is anything that can be learned that would put Jones into that company.

[tntoriole]

I don't think there is anything that can be learned that would put Jones into that company.

At this point in his career, I agree. Though i think he can be better if he becomes even marginally better with pitch selection. But I just wish he had taken 1 pitch in the seventh inning yesterday.

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[Frobby]

Ted was always great. He did not improve on a linear basis because of hard work or knowledge. He was the Michael Jordan of his sport. I know of no one that he was able to translate his skills to. Not even his son.

The Washington Senators went from being a 92 OPS+ team to 103 OPS+ in Ted's first year as manager. He helped many hitters on that team, and the players will tell you, he spent a lot of time with the hitters, since that was his passion. Check out how Frank Howard did after Ted arrived, or even Eddie Brinkman. No, none of them became Ted Williams, but that doesn't mean that a lot of guys couldn't improve by following his hitting approach.

That said, I don't believe the same approach works for every ballplayer, in any era.

[Frobby]

In one game against Milwaukee, the Brewers had the tying run at second base when Donie Bush happened to look out to right field and see Williams swinging his imaginary bat. But this time, his glove wasn?t even on. It was lying on the grass next to him, a useless appendage. Bush stopped the game, sprinted out to Ted, and yelled, ?What?s the idea! This run means the ball game!? Not to worry, the Kid replied. ?That guy never hits to right field" from The Kid, by Ben Bradlee, Jr.

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Uh, I'm pretty sure the Brewers did not exist when Ted was playing baseball. And the Milwaukee Braves, who did exist, were in the National League. Better check your anecdote there.

[Frobby]

Ok...leave out Pujols, Bonds. Adam is not an elite player like Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle. Those players hit for more power with much fewer strikeouts and many more walks than Adam. I just believe Adam could have been in that category if he were more selective at the plate.

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I seriously doubt it. Do you really think Adam is one of the two or three most talented hitters playing today? I don't. He's an excellent overall baseball player and a very good hitter with some weaknesses.

[tntoriole]

I seriously doubt it. Do you really think Adam is one of the two or three most talented hitters playing today? I don't. He's an excellent overall baseball player and a very good hitter with some weaknesses.

My premise is that Adam could have added 15-20 points to his batting average and 10 or more home runs by, from the beginning, being significantly more selective at the plate which would have put him in the .310 and 40 HR range every year and then he would actually be in that discussion of most talented hitter. But he is certainly not in the elite category with the existing holes in his approach.

[Number5]

Uh, I'm pretty sure the Brewers did not exist when Ted was playing baseball. And the Milwaukee Braves, who did exist, were in the National League. Better check your anecdote there.

1938 Minneapolis Millers. American Association. Donie Bush, manager. Ted Williams, right field. Milwaukee Brewers did indeed exist, and were in the American Association along with the Milers.

[Frobby]

1938 Minneapolis Millers. American Association. Donie Bush, manager. Ted Williams, right field. Milwaukee Brewers did indeed exist, and were in the American Association along with the Milers.

Ah, OK, I didn't realize we were talking about something that happened during the time Ted was in the minors.

[Frobby]

Oh I agree. Modern players and Ted Williams are not a match. Major league millionaires are of the belief that they know themselves best and are not really instructed, more like having a therapist as coach to listen to you, give you logistical support with film, etc, support your decisions, etc. I don't agree that Adam would hit less homers if he were more selective, i.e. more walks. I think Frank Robby and Eddie Murray would have hit fewer homeruns if they swung at as many bad pitches as Adam does and pitchers knew for a fact that they could likely get them out with pitches out of the zone. I think Adam going from 19 walks to 60-70 would likely increase his homers. It would be useful to know how many of his 130 strikeouts were on pitches out of the strike zone.

I don't think you can generalize about hitters. Adam Jones simply isn't that good at pitch recognition. It's not like he goes up to the plate thinking, "I think I'll swing at a breaking ball in the dirt."

By the way, of 26 hitters with 25+ homers this year, Adam has by far the lowest walk rate, at 2.8%. But his strikeout rate is right in the middle of that group. He's not a big strikeout guy for a power hitter.

[Frobby]

Ok...leave out Pujols, Bonds. Adam is not an elite player like Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle. Those players hit for more power with much fewer strikeouts and many more walks than Adam. I just believe Adam could have been in that category if he were more selective at the plate.

Mickey Mantle led the AL in strikeouts five times and finished in the top three five other times.

I think you need to distinguish between drawing very few walks and striking out a lot. Those two don't always go together, and Jones does not strike out that much compared to his peers. In fact, he's never finished in the top 10 in the league in strikeouts. He was 28th in the majors this year, and every player who struck out more than Adam also walked more times, most by a factor or double, triple or more.

[Emory Eagle]

My premise is that Adam could have added 15-20 points to his batting average and 10 or more home runs by, from the beginning, being significantly more selective at the plate which would have put him in the .310 and 40 HR range every year and then he would actually be in that discussion of most talented hitter. But he is certainly not in the elite category with the existing holes in his approach.

The question is whether selectivity is a skill that can be developed (both generally and specifically for players with similar skill sets to Adam). We could investigate this by looking at whether indices of selectivity (OBP, pitchers seen per plate appearance, etc.) ever change significantly over the course of hitters' careers. I don't know the answer but my guess would be that this is something that is difficult to improve at the ML level.

It may be that some players who happen to have excellent pitch recognition skills are able to improve their selectivity if introduced to a more patient hitting philosophy. I suspect purely from anecdotal observation that Adam is not that type of player. Rather, he commits himself to swing early and relies on excellent hand eye coordination to boost his contact rates.

[Frobby]

The question is whether selectivity is a skill that can be developed (both generally and specifically for players with similar skill sets to Adam). We could investigate this by looking at whether indices of selectivity (OBP, pitchers seen per plate appearance, etc.) ever change significantly over the course of hitters' careers. I don't know the answer but my guess would be that this is something that is difficult to improve at the ML level.

It may be that some players who happen to have excellent pitch recognition skills are able to improve their selectivity if introduced to a more patient hitting philosophy. I suspect purely from anecdotal observation that Adam is not that type of player. Rather, he commits himself to swing early and relies on excellent hand eye coordination to boost his contact rates.

We know from looking at his career stats that Adam's walk rate has trended lower.

2008: 4.5%

2009: 6.9%

2010: 3.7%

2011: 4.7%

2012: 4.9%

2013: 3.6%

2014: 2.8%

Clearly, Jones is capable of being more selective than he has been this year. He obviously doesn't think it is a priority to draw walks. His overall production is good so I just live with it.