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Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

Greg

By Greg
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gmelson26 Veteran All-Star

gmelson26

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I think most, not all but most of us are of two minds about the whole thing.

I want Nick back. I want Nick to be there when this team wins it all. He's a likable guy and he's a homegrown regular that I like cheering for.

I also want better production from RF. I want 20+ HRs and 80+ RBI out of my corner OFs.

I want a real lead off hitter than can work a walk then steal a base or two and advance on a sacrifice fly to score a run when the lineup can't buy a hit.

In my head I know Nick isn't either of those guys but I still believe that this team can be built to win with him on it. The added power from Adam Jones and Hardy (if it returns) helps when CF and SS aren't typical power positions but if he doesn't come back I'll understand. I'll also most likely pull for Nick where ever he goes, unless its to the Bronx.

This touches upon my biggest issue with him. I want one or the other out of my corner OF/lead off hitter: power or speed.. I'm seeing a lack of both here. In the past 3 years, he's played nearly every day and gets on base at a bit above average; however, he's averaging 76 runs scored a year from the lead off spot behind the likes of 2013 Davis, 2014 Cruz and Pearce, and very steady Jones. I just feel as though we should be getting more runs here. He's not hitting in front of the Astros. I like him going forward as a 6th or 7th batter.. I don't think this will be the case though. The situation reminds me a bit of Jeter in recent years. Now this speaks to the organization not having a true lead off hither as well.

True lead off hitters aren't exactly falling out of tress in either free agency or from within the organization.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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Yeah, I think we should not expect the Orioles to acquire a really good lead off hitter this off season. The only way I can see it happening is if a significant trade is swung -- none of the good free agents available fit the mold. Nori Aoki? He can bat lead off but he won't be great at it. Kind of like Markakis. Melky Cabrera maybe? Nah, he bats second, maybe MOO.

Rickey Henderson's not walking through that door fans. Kenny Lofton's not walking through that door and Tim Raines is not walking through that door. And if you expect them to walk through that door they're gonna be grey and old (Ichiro).

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birrman54 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

birrman54

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I understand this point of view.. I do. However, I feel as though you're wordsmithing here with me. He's been declining over the last 3 years. If 2013 is a magical "post-wrist surgery year," then I'm concerned going forward. He had more runs, rbi, and less Ks in his down year than he had in 2014. Doubles and HRs were up a tick, but basically the same as 2013; and they're down drastically from his young years (~40 doubles, 20 HRs). So typically, we can project upticks or at least a form of stasis in terms of his production going into his prime years 27-30, and instead we're seeing decline. For me, that's alarming when I think about signing him to a 4 year deal.. 1 or 2 more years.. eh.

Over the last 3 years, Markakis has averaged per year about 26 doubles, 13 HRs, 2 steals, 76 runs scored. These aren't the worst stats in the world. To be fair to him, he gets on base at an above average clip (though I fear this is declining in his prime); he plays everyday barring a bone breaking injury. He will not cost the team with gaffes and he has a very good arm. He's the current Mr. Oriole, and the players want him back.. he's also (understandably) a fan favorite given the effort and promise he's shown. Buck loves him, which is an excellent sign, and will probably have him leading off for the foreseeable future (which is unforunate in my opinion given his lack of speed on the bases). He will probably be a 1.5 to 2 WAR player going forward.

I'm not against resigning him, but I would want no more than a 3 year deal, and I want him to get paid based on the production we reasonably expect to see from him.

I agree with your assessment almost completely. I think your WAR expectations are pretty spot on - we can probably assume something like 6 - 9 WAR over a 4 year contract. If we're paying him $36M over that period it's a reasonable deal, 4-6M/war. If we're paying $48M it becomes a significantly less good deal.

Nick's supporters point to his OBP but I think others have rightly pointed out that his lack of speed cuts into that. He gets on base, but can't score from first.

I happen to think Aoki would be a significantly better lead off hitter than Nick. He has a reasonably high OBP, better speed, and his defense is probably similar. He also costs less per year and won't get more than 3 years.

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Dark Helmet Hangout Grand Counsel

Dark Helmet

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That isn't even close to true. If you parse the language used you will see terms like average, below average, replacement level (2013).

No one is saying he is without value.

I've seen mediocre used also. Im sorry, that doesn't mean any of the words yoju list listed. Atleast in my opinion.

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