HHP: Pitching and defense, 2015 -- upside and downside

[Frobby]

Sometimes I don't think people understand why our team was so good in 2014. The main reason was, we prevented the other team from scoring runs with our pitching and defense:

ERA: 3.44 (3rd)

ERA+: 112 (3rd)

RA: 3.66 (3rd)

Starters' ERA: 3.66 (5th)

Bullpen ERA: 3.10 (3rd)

Bullpen WPA: 6.24 (2nd)

Unearned runs: 0.22/game (1st)

Errors: 0.54/game (3rd)

UZR: 54.8 (2nd)

The team was 12th in ERA for the months of April and May and was a .500 team, then went 4th, 3rd, 5th and 1st the final four months and dominated.

You want to know if we'll win the East again in 2015? Start by analyzing whether our pitching and defense will be as good in 2015 as it was in 2014

On the one hand, I can argue that the pitching and defense could be even better in 2015. It took two months before the staff fully absorbed what Wallace and Chiti were teaching, and they were great thereafter. Ubaldo had an off year and is likely to be better, and if not, he won't get as many starts. Gausman made big strides and could become truly dominant in 2015. We won't repeat the failed Hunter as closer experiment and he has thrived in a setup role. We should have Manny all year, and Lough, a plus defender, should see more playing time. I think Schoop gets even better with experience.

On the other side, the pitching was unnaturally healthy last year, a number of guys had career years, we lost Miller, Britton and O'Day showed some cracks in the postseason, Hardy is getting older, Wieters' pitch calling and framing may be a downgrade and we don't know how his arm will be, and Markakis' steady presence will be missed. Lough can only play one corner OF spot at a time.

So what do you think -- more upside, or downside? Personally, I think the starters have at least as much upside as downside, but the bullpen has more downside than upside. A 6.24 WPA for the 'pen is hard to repeat. The defense, which is a huge plus for this team, should be about the same, but if Manny stays healthy all year that's huge. How the pitchers readjust to Wieters and whether he's a plus or minus is going to be a huge factor.

[Hank Scorpio]

If only winning with pitching and defense were as sexy as having a $200MM payroll and not making the playoffs!!!!!!!

[25 Nuggets]

Honestly I think the upside/downside will cancel each other out in 2015. Eventually, Bundy and Harvey will worm their way into the rotation alongside Gausman and Tillman, and at that point I think the upside will outweigh the downside. But that's just conventional speculation; I'm not going to assume Bundy and Harvey will be TOR pitchers.

I like that the team is focusing on defense on the minor league level as well as the major league level. The signing of Dariel Alvarez is an example of that. Hopefully that means that the defense will remain upper-tier with the infusion of young talent.

[backwardsk]

You touched on it, health. If Britton's shoulder problems return the bullpen could be out of whack. Can we get 161 starts from six guys?

I'm not worried about a drop off on defense, even though the starting 8 probably hasn't been finalized yet.

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[LoyalBirdFan]

Sometimes I don't think people understand why our team was so good in 2014. The main reason was, we prevented the other team from scoring runs with our pitching and defense:

ERA: 3.44 (3rd)

ERA+: 112 (3rd)

RA: 3.66 (3rd)

Starters' ERA: 3.66 (5th)

Bullpen ERA: 3.10 (3rd)

Bullpen WPA: 6.24 (2nd)

Unearned runs: 0.22/game (1st)

Errors: 0.54/game (3rd)

UZR: 54.8 (2nd)

The team was 12th in ERA for the months of April and May and was a .500 team, then went 4th, 3rd, 5th and 1st the final four months and dominated.

You want to know if we'll win the East again in 2015? Start by analyzing whether our pitching and defense will be as good in 2015 as it was in 2014

On the one hand, I can argue that the pitching and defense could be even better in 2015. It took two months before the staff fully absorbed what Wallace and Chiti were teaching, and they were great thereafter. Ubaldo had an off year and is likely to be better, and if not, he won't get as many starts. Gausman made big strides and could become truly dominant in 2015. We won't repeat the failed Hunter as closer experiment and he has thrived in a setup role. We should have Manny all year, and Lough, a plus defender, should see more playing time. I think Schoop gets even better with experience.

On the other side, the pitching was unnaturally healthy last year, a number of guys had career years, we lost Miller, Britton and O'Day showed some cracks in the postseason, Hardy is getting older, Wieters' pitch calling and framing may be a downgrade and we don't know how his arm will be, and Markakis' steady presence will be missed. Lough can only play one corner OF spot at a time.

So what do you think -- more upside, or downside? Personally, I think the starters have at least as much upside as downside, but the bullpen has more downside than upside. A 6.24 WPA for the 'pen is hard to repeat. The defense, which is a huge plus for this team, should be about the same, but if Manny stays healthy all year that's huge. How the pitchers readjust to Wieters and whether he's a plus or minus is going to be a huge factor.

Good post. I believe it's all about pitching and defense.

[Aglets]

Being 6th in the AL in runs scored probably helped too. (2nd best offense in our division)

Not trying to derail the thread, but i think it's worth pointing out that if we end up regressing some on offense (certainly possible with Cruz and Nick gone, and Pearce being a huge ? ) then that puts even more pressure on our pitching and defense. We have other good rebound candidates too to be sure.

[Frobby]

Being 6th in the AL in runs scored probably helped too. (2nd best offense in our division)

Not trying to derail the thread, but i think it's worth pointing out that if we end up regressing some on offense (certainly possible with Cruz and Nick gone, and Pearce being a huge ? ) then that puts even more pressure on our pitching and defense. We have other good rebound candidates too to be sure.

I don't disagree. But tell me today that we finish third in fewest runs allowed again, and I will bet we score enough runs to make the playoffs.

[clapdiddy]

I agree that the bullpen could be looking at some regression this season. I still think relief pitchers and outfield is where we need to focus our attention right now.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sometimes I don't think people understand why our team was so good in 2014. The main reason was, we prevented the other team from scoring runs with our pitching and defense... A 6.24 WPA for the 'pen is hard to repeat.

Most of the difference between '12 and '13 was a normalization of the record or near-record WPA the pen put up in '12. If they allow the same number of runs in a slightly different set of circumstances they could lose several wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

Good post. I believe it's all about pitching and defense.

And offense. And health.

[LoyalBirdFan]

And offense. And health.

Thanks! I would have never known! :rolleyestf:

[srock]

Gotta love the upside. Given the age range of the pitching staff you have to expect improvement.

Ubaldo has a career of being awful then great. If we catch him on a great season, this staff will be top notch.

Really the only downside to me is health. We can't expect to be as healthy as 2014. Luckily, Duquette is a master at collecting depth thus mitigating the biggest risk to 2015: Fragility of pitchers.

Or a bunch of out guys will suddenly and inexplicably be terrible for most the season. You never know. Such is baseball, such is life.

[Frobby]

I agree that the bullpen could be looking at some regression this season. I still think relief pitchers and outfield is where we need to focus our attention right now.

Most of the difference between '12 and '13 was a normalization of the record or near-record WPA the pen put up in '12. If they allow the same number of runs in a slightly different set of circumstances they could lose several wins.

I think this is a very key point. Here is our bullpen ERA and WPA the last three years (and AL rank in each):

2012: 3.00 ERA (3rd) in 545 IP, 13.86 WPA (1st by more than 5 wins)

2013: 3.52 ERA (6th) in 514 IP, 0.54 WPA (12th)

2014: 3.10 ERA (3rd) in 507 IP, 6.24 WPA (2nd)

The swing between a 3.00 ERA and a 3.52 ERA is only about 30 runs over the number of innings worked by the bullpen, but the timing of when those runs were allowed made a huge difference. And while I am sure someone will want to lay the whole thing on Jim Johnson, his personal WPA was 5.35 in 2012 and -0.34 in 2013, so less than half of the total team differential between 2012 and 2013. What happens in the 7th and 8th is very important. For example, Darren O'Day had excellent ERA's all three years (2.28, 2.18, 1.70), but his WPA's varied a lot (3.42, 1.11, 2.40) and his best WPA year was actually his worst ERA year. He's someone I'm a bit nervous about because while he has been very good all three seasons, he had several poor outings in September, and then had some misadventures in the post-season. I'm pretty confident in Britton's continued success, but his year was so good he has almost nowhere to go but down. Hunter's a guy who may actually have a better year sine he seemed to relax a lot once he shifted back to a setup role.

In any event, small swings in the timing of when runs are allowed could cost us a few wins, and indeed, that outcome is pretty likely.

[BirdinBama]

Frobby, thanks for your posts! Insightful, as always!

[sportsfan8703]

Best thread started of the offseason so far. Gausman is going to be a big factor this year. Ubaldo can't be as bad as last year. Plus Brach really stepped up in the pen. Combine that with Bundy, Wilson, Berry, Davies, Wright all being in the upper minors and the pitching is going to be at least as good. The defense is going to be greatly improved. You'll have De Aza and Lough in the corner spots. Machado back at 3rd. Weiters being back at some point. There is always June and July to grab that extra BP arm or bat if need be. Let's get this season started.