Jump to content

Camden Depot: Don't Trust a Reliever Farther Than You Can Throw Him

weams

By weams
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/12/dont-trust-reliever-farther-than-you.html

Only 31.5% of the top 20 relievers and 24.1% of relievers ranked 21-50 according to ERA in 2010-2012 were top 50 relievers in 2013 and 2014. The average top 50 reliever ended up being an asset to the bullpen but wasn?t the star reliever that the team signing him was hoping to receive. The average ERA of roughly 3.15 looks like it's acceptable. However, 100 out of the 265 relievers who threw at least 40 innings in relief from 2013 to 2014 had an ERA under 3.00. An ERA of 3.15 is slightly better than the median ERA of 3.35 for all qualified relievers.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
Essentially...

Its stupid to pay Andrew Miller 36 million.

This should be the MO for 95% of relievers. Don't just pay based on stats. Or someone that has a gimmick type pitch that they could completely lose. But I do think there is the eye test. From what I saw of hitters is that they were just out matched by him. They couldn't touch him. While O'day has had a ton of success, he doesn't come off that same way. Sure every reliever has their dominant innings but when they consistently do it, they deserve to get paid. It would take an injury to stop that type of success.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
This should be the MO for 95% of relievers. Don't just pay based on stats. Or someone that has a gimmick type pitch that they could completely lose. But I do think there is the eye test. From what I saw of hitters is that they were just out matched by him. They couldn't touch him. While O'day has had a ton of success, he doesn't come off that same way. Sure every reliever has their dominant innings but when they consistently do it, they deserve to get paid. It would take an injury to stop that type of success.

Miller has consistently done it?

Last season was his first with a FIP under 3.00.

He threw 40 innings in 2012 and 30 in 2013.

How exactly has he proven he can do it consistently?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

Posted
Posted

Miller is exactly the kinda guy you shouldn't trust to stay at a high level. He's had one stellar season in his career... relief pitchers have such small sample sizes that you can't really trust one good season.

If you're gonna give a big contract to a reliever, it should be someone whos been consistently shutdown relievers for a long time, like a Mariano Rivera or Craig Kimbrel. You know they aren't just one or two year flukes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
  • Author
Posted
This should be the MO for 95% of relievers. Don't just pay based on stats. Or someone that has a gimmick type pitch that they could completely lose. But I do think there is the eye test. From what I saw of hitters is that they were just out matched by him. They couldn't touch him. While O'day has had a ton of success, he doesn't come off that same way. Sure every reliever has their dominant innings but when they consistently do it, they deserve to get paid. It would take an injury to stop that type of success.

Koji...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
  • Author
Posted
I think Miller is the exception. Former top starter prospect with legit stuff. Count me as one of the apparent few who thinks 4 for 36 would have been money well spent.

It is possible that he will bring back that value. The odds state otherwise of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveO Veteran All-Star

SteveO

Posted
Posted
Hard to disagree, but it's not bad when you're the MFY and money is no object.

When you hear of signing by the Yanks, Dodgers and Red Sox in order to properly put the money in perspective just remember 36 million is kinda like when you hear a guy has 1,000.000 rubles .....its really not as much as you might think ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...