Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[El Gordo]

Make sure you use them to learn something about statistical analysis.

Indeed, it's a wonder they don't give courses in it to all MiL ball players, then they would realize that the numbers they put up there are more important than what they they learn on the field.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Indeed, it's a wonder they don't give courses in it to all MiL ball players, then they would realize that the numbers they put up there are more important than what they they learn on the field.

Except of course that the statistics reflect what is learned "on the field".

At least last time I checked; maybe they are from simulated seasons in OOTP Baseball now or something?

[TyCobb]

Drungo is right that nobody can predict what Guts will put up ERA wise. Last season was Guts really only chance in the mlb as a starter. I think he has the stuff to be an ace. Needs to work on his slider, but his control was spot on for 130 ip last season. To me that isn't a fluke.

[Since'54]

Make sure you use them to learn something about statistical analysis.

I don't know much about baseball statistical analysis but I know a lot about statistics. And one thing I know is that statistics address a large number of instances and have only limited success when used to predict a single result --like the effectiveness of an individual pitcher. I think Guthrie proved that last season, and I expect he may do it again.

I have no problem when people assert probabilities. But all last summer SG insisted that statistics proved Guthries couldn't do what he was doing

day in and day out. As if we were viewing a mirage.

[orayole]

Indeed, it's a wonder they don't give courses in it to all MiL ball players, then they would realize that the numbers they put up there are more important than what they they learn on the field.

We should also just put everyone's numbers into a computer and simulate every game so no one gets injured for real by actually playing the game.

[El Gordo]

Except of course that the statistics reflect what is learned "on the field".

At least last time I checked; maybe they are from simulated seasons in OOTP Baseball now or something?

I'm making a joke of course, but I can see a situation where one can learn and grow as a ballplayer and not have it refelected in the stats at the time the learning goes on. In fact the numbers could decline for a season. Take a pitcher who concentrates on developing an off speed pitch e.g. he might give up more BB's and hits during the process but in ensuing seasons he could impprove exponentially. Look at CPatt last season. His numbers declined over all, but his OPS against LHP improved a lot, and over the second half he was much better than '06. If he gets to play full time he could finally emerge as a top CF.

[TyCobb]

I don't know much about baseball statistical analysis but I know a lot about statistics. And one thing I know is that statistics address a large number of instances and have only limited success when used to predict a single result --like the effectiveness of an individual pitcher. I think Guthrie proved that last season' date=' and I expect he may do it again.

I have no problem when people assert probabilities. But all last summer SG insisted that statistics proved Guthries couldn't do what he [b']was doing[/b]

day in and day out. As if we were viewing a mirage.

I think SG was pointing out Guthrie's low BABIP. It was much lower than our other pitchers. Which willl lead to a increase towards the mean over the long haul which leads to a higher WHIP and Higher ERA.

[square634]

I don't know much about baseball statistical analysis but I know a lot about statistics. And one thing I know is that statistics address a large number of instances and have only limited success when used to predict a single result --like the effectiveness of an individual pitcher. I think Guthrie proved that last season' date=' and I expect he may do it again.

I have no problem when people assert probabilities. But all last summer SG insisted that statistics proved Guthries couldn't do what he [b']was doing[/b]

day in and day out. As if we were viewing a mirage.

I think he was saying that Guthrie couldn't maintain what he was doing, which is a subtle distinction. And the numbers at the end of the season certainly bear him out.

[Since'54]

I think he was saying that Guthrie couldn't maintain what he was doing, which is a subtle distinction. And the numbers at the end of the season certainly bear him out.

I was completely happy with Guthrie's numbers at the end of the season. May he be so "lucky" as to duplicate them again.:002_scool:

[BaltimoreTerp]

I was completely happy with Guthrie's numbers at the end of the season. May he be so "lucky" as to duplicate them again.:002_scool:

 I Split         G  GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP    ERA   H   R   ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP+-+------------+---+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+  1st Half      19 13  3  4  2  0  0   0 102     2.74  75  34  31  9  18   0  72   3   2nd Half      13 13  0  3  3  0  0   0  73.1   5.03  90  44  41 14  29   2  51   1 

Yeah, that 5.03 ERA and 11 more walks in 28.2 fewer innings are what I want to see duplicated.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I don't know much about baseball statistical analysis but I know a lot about statistics. And one thing I know is that statistics address a large number of instances and have only limited success when used to predict a single result --like the effectiveness of an individual pitcher. I think Guthrie proved that last season' date=' and I expect he may do it again.

I have no problem when people assert probabilities. But all last summer SG insisted that statistics proved Guthries couldn't do what he [b']was doing[/b]

day in and day out. As if we were viewing a mirage.

And if you look at the stats I just posted, we were.

[JCK]

10-11 3.90

[Since'54]

 I Split         G  GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP    ERA   H   R   ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP+-+------------+---+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+  1st Half      19 13  3  4  2  0  0   0 102     2.74  75  34  31  9  18   0  72   3   2nd Half      13 13  0  3  3  0  0   0  73.1   5.03  90  44  41 14  29   2  51   1 

Yeah, that 5.03 ERA and 11 more walks in 28.2 fewer innings are what I want to see duplicated.

For me "the end of the season" means the whole year -- which gives stats you don't seem prepared to address.

[square634]

For me "the end of the season" means the whole year -- which gives stats you don't seem prepared to address.

OK, I know baseball isn't completely luck, but hear me out. Let's say I flip a fair coin 10 times and get heads every time. How many heads would you expect me to get if I flipped the coin another 10 times? About 5, regression to the mean. At the end of the 20 flips, you'd still have about 15 heads, which is above average.

So I guess my convoluted point is that many people said that Guthrie would regress to the mean, and he appeared to do so in the second half. His full season's stats were still good, but that is fueled by what is likely an anomaly of a first half.

[Since'54]

OK, I know baseball isn't completely luck, but hear me out. Let's say I flip a fair coin 10 times and get heads every time. How many heads would you expect me to get if I flipped the coin another 10 times? About 5, regression to the mean. At the end of the 20 flips, you'd still have about 15 heads, which is above average.

So I guess my convoluted point is that many people said that Guthrie would regress to the mean, and he appeared to do so in the second half. His full season's stats were still good, but that is fueled by what is likely an anomaly of a first half.

Or maybe he got tired or maybe he was hurt before we knew it .....

That's what makes this new season so interesting to me. I look for him to come right back.