Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[Baltimoron]

If you say so.

Why don't we say "largely the result of his defense and luck - as opined by current accepted statistical methods used today."

For the same reason people don't say silly stuff like "people can't fly - as opined by currently accepted scientific methods used today."

There is no dispute, there are only people who look at facts and evidence and people who choose to ignore them.

Unless of course you're just trolling and intentionally ignoring the most important word in his statement, "Largely", which would appear to be a distinct possibility because its clear you aren't dumb.

[Baltimoron]

Throw strikes? LOL.

And keep the ball down.

Although some people suspect Maddux's ability to generate movement was not entirely natural.

[JOEs_Os]

I believe he will win about 16 games this year. We have the potential to have a better bullpen this year.

[Lucky Jim]

And keep the ball down.

Although some people suspect Maddux's ability to generate movement was not entirely natural.

Maddux "figured out" what Gaylord Perry figured out?

[El Gordo]

We here about GB/FB ratio and BABIP, but wouldn't the % of line drives be a more revealing stat? This is the kind of batted ball most likely to do damage and least desireable for apitcher to give up. I can imagine a pitcher with a low BABIP, having that due more to skill than luck, but I can't imagine that a pitcher who gives up a high % of line drives being very effective.

[El Gordo]

Maddux "figured out" what Gaylord Perry figured out?

No, he figured out what Bonds figured out, but instead of injecting it in his butt he put the clear on his fingers, and since the umps couldn't see it it worked just like a "Perryball".

[DrungoHazewood]

It is your perogative to provide potentially misleading opinion as fact.

And you can feel free to continue to use my statements as a jumping off point for diatribes against generally accepted ideas about pitchers and what contributes to their performances.

[Sports Guy]

Those first 10 starts (actually 13) made Guthrie's season. From the start of the 2nd half on (7/12) he had a 5.03 ERA (73 IP in 13 starts). Now let's say if in those 1st 13 starts (92IP) he had an ERA of 4.00 instead of his actual 2.16 ERA. His ERA for the year would then be approximately 4.47, which is pretty respectable.

Agreed but if he had a 4.47 ERA last year, coupled with a mediocre at best end of the season, people wouldn't have as high hopes for him...Wouldn't you agree with that?

[Sports Guy]

BTW, IIRC, his LOB% was lucky as well. I think it was over 3% more than the average.

Drungo is right...Guthrie could pitch the same exact way he did last year and have a 5 ERA because luck goes against him and things even out.

But that is likely to be the type of pitcher he is...Just like Rodrigo was...Some years, he may be a #3 starter or even a little better...Other years, you will want him out of the rotation.

The biggest thing i am interested in seeing this year is his confidence, especially with Mazzone not here.

[TGO]

And keep the ball down.

Although some people suspect Maddux's ability to generate movement was not entirely natural.

He also figured out that if you display the ability to hit the same spot repeatedly, umps will start calling it a strike whether it is or not. He routinely got an extra 4-5 inches off the outside corner that other pitchers did not get, simply because he could hit that spot at will.

[El Gordo]

BTW, IIRC, his LOB% was lucky as well. I think it was over 3% more than the average.

Drungo is right...Guthrie could pitch the same exact way he did last year and have a 5 ERA because luck goes against him and things even out.

But that is likely to be the type of pitcher he is...Just like Rodrigo was...Some years, he may be a #3 starter or even a little better...Other years, you will want him out of the rotation.

The biggest thing i am interested in seeing this year is his confidence, especially with Mazzone not here.

I wouldn't compare Guthrie to RLo. RLo had a finer margin for error to be effective, Guthrie has better stuff. If he can keep his velocity up and his fast ball down(both a function of stamina IMO) he should be fine.

[tywright]

Agreed but if he had a 4.47 ERA last year, coupled with a mediocre at best end of the season, people wouldn't have as high hopes for him...Wouldn't you agree with that?

Yeah I agree with that; however, he did have a great 1st half so let's give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Sports Guy]

I wouldn't compare Guthrie to RLo. RLo had a finer margin for error to be effective, Guthrie has better stuff. If he can keep his velocity up and his fast ball down(both a function of stamina IMO) he should be fine.

RLo didn't have the great fastball but his secondary pitches may have been better and more consistent.

RLo also had very solid K and BB rates.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah I agree with that; however, he did have a great 1st half so let's give him the benefit of the doubt.

Why?

He has 10 starts that were total abnormal to what he did the rest of the year(as a whole) and his MiL career and he deserves the benefit of the doubt???

[Since'54]

BTW, IIRC, his LOB% was lucky as well. I think it was over 3% more than the average.

Drungo is right...Guthrie could pitch the same exact way he did last year and have a 5 ERA because luck goes against him and things even out.

But that is likely to be the type of pitcher he is...Just like Rodrigo was...Some years, he may be a #3 starter or even a little better...Other years, you will want him out of the rotation.

The biggest thing i am interested in seeing this year is his confidence, especially with Mazzone not here.

At least you are consistent. Your negative assessment of Guthrie flew in the face of the facts all last season. I guess we will be hearing through 2008 about how what Guthrie achieves is statistically unlikely as he continues to lead the Orioles staff -- not as a third or fourth starter but as #1.