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Some news on the prospect rankings front...


Slade-OH

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Well, McFarland is already in the majors, and Verrett has a year of AAA under his belt and is a Rule 5 pick, so they clearly have opportunities for major league impact. Hader's much further away. But when you compare his performance to date to the other two, he stands up pretty well on the numbers.

Hader

Low A at age 19: 2.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

High A at age 20: 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.8 K/9

McFarland

GCL at age 19: 5.07 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

Low A at age 20: .3.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.3 K/9

High A at age 21: 3.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

Verrett

Low A at age 22: 3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.3 K/9

High A at age 22: 2.09 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 6.1 K/9

Hader did stumble in a taste of AA at age 20 at the end of the year. This is a big year for him.

Astros prospect "On the Rise":

3. LHP Josh Hader: The long and lanky lefty enjoyed a season to build upon with High-A Lancaster, working with an upper-80s to low-90s fastball with lots of dance out of a tough low three-quarters slot. He can reach as his as 95 mph and could sit closer to that mark in shorter bursts should he wind up in the pen as some evaluators suggest. His slider is a second potential above-average offering that can make lefty bats highly uncomfortable due to the angle of approach. His change is a third usable weapon, though both it and the slider regularly play fringe average or below, as Hader is still working to find a consistent release that allows him to work the totality of the zone with each. He’ll need more precision in execution to continue his run of success against stiffer Texas League competition, and could find a home as a useful lefty relief arm should he prove incapable of turning over upper-level lineups with his fastball-heavy approach.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25508

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Of course -- but that wasn't the point. I'm confident you'll find no evidence of me ever claiming Hader is close to the prospect Bundy/Harvey is.

You are correct, sorry was remember old posts from other posters and begrudging DD for trading Hader and expecting him to be the next great hope for the team.

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The ranking doesn't bother me. We've recently graduated a lot of high end propsects to the MLB. Heck the rankings might have us make a major jump if we get all these comp picks after the year. But I'd rather have have a good MLB team for awhile and not put too much stock into rankings. With such bad rankings over the last few years, we sure have found a way to have a ton of former top prospects on the roster. Schoop, Machado, Jones, Snider, Weiters, D.Young, Gausman, Tillman, Britton, Matusz. I'm pretty sure over half of just those guys made a top 20 or somebody's prospect list in the past. Usually DD doesn't pick up just "grinders", he tends to get toolsy guys all the time like Peguero, Parades, Lough, and Garcia.

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Some of us didn't mind trading Hader so much just not for Norris.

If Norris turns in another year just like 2014, the trade will have been well worth it. He wasn't too impressive in the last two months of 2013, but he was a solid contributor last year. He did a much better job vs. LHB in 2014, and I think that's a big key for him because he's always been pretty tough on RHB. He's a pretty gritty competitor and I like the way he reacts when his defense makes a big play behind him. A good guy to be in the foxhole with.

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Baseball HQ gave the Orioles a grades of Hitting: C- ... Pitching: C ... Top End Talent: C- ... Depth: C- ... Overall: C- for their organizational report.

That put them at about 26. Orioles, Phillies, Brewers all received C- grades while the Tigers and Angels received D grades.

They ranked a top 15 prospects and it this is how their list looked: (I wont post the write-ups for the prospects but if someone is interested what they had to say about a certain player I will post it for you)

1. Dylan Bundy (9B)

2. Hunter Harvey (8C)

3. Zach Davies (7A)

4. Christian Walker (7B)

5. Tim Berry (7B)

6. Chance Sisco (8D)

7. Dariel Alvarez (7C)

8. Jomar Reyes (8D)

9. Stephen Tarpley (8D)

10. Josh Hart (8E)

11. Brian Gonzalez (7C)

12. Mike Wright (7C)

13. Michael Ohlman (7C)

14. Henry Urrutia (7C)

15. Mike Yaz (6A)

2015 contributors: Oliver Drake (RHP), Branden Kline (RHP), Tyler Wilson (RHP), Alex Hassan (OF), Michael Almanzar (3B), Chris Jones (LHP), Pat McCoy (LHP), David Freitas ©

PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING

Scale of (1-10) representing a player’s upside potential

10 - Hall of Fame-type player

9 - Elite player

8 - Solid regular

7 - Average regular

6 - Platoon player

5 - Major League reserve player

4 - Top minor league player

3 - Average minor league player

2 - Minor league reserve player

1 - Minor league roster filler

PROBABILITY RATING

Scale of (A-E) representing the player’s realistic chances of achieving their potential

A - 90% probability of reaching potential

B - 70% probability of reaching potential

C - 50% probability of reaching potential

D - 30% probability of reaching potential

E - 10% probability of reaching potential

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The Orioles have Wieters, Joseph, Clevenger, Lavarnway, and Arencibia... and David Frietas is going to be a 2015 contributor.

Well alright.

They did these before the Orioles had acquired Lavarnway and Arencibia and Parmalee, etc. They were done the last week December/1st week of January.

Also their 2015 contributors list is people who didn't make the top 15 and have an outside chance of seeing time in the majors this year. I think that's why Frietas was listed because Wieters availability to catch at the beginning of the season was unknown and the Orioles lost Hundley. If Joseph or Clevenger would have had an injury I suppose Frietas would have gotten a call.

For their top 100 prospects list they have 2 Orioles

11. Bundy

29. Harvey

76. Erod

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They did these before the Orioles had acquired Lavarnway and Arencibia and Parmalee, etc. They were done the last week December/1st week of January.

Also their 2015 contributors list is people who didn't make the top 15 and have an outside chance of seeing time in the majors this year. I think that's why Frietas was listed because Wieters availability to catch at the beginning of the season was unknown and the Orioles lost Hundley. If Joseph or Clevenger would have had an injury I suppose Frietas would have gotten a call.

For their top 100 prospects list they have 2 Orioles

11. Bundy

29. Harvey

76. Erod

Where was Hader ranked?

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#14 in Astros system

Josh Hader (LHP) … 6-3, 160 … 20 … 2012 (19) HS (MD)

Comments: Tall, lean starter with deceptive delivery and clean arm action. Tough to square up due to ability to hide the ball. Improved control despite moving parts in delivery. Found success in hitters haven by mixing three average pitches. Changes speeds and can effectively vary arm angle.

Development Path: High-A proved to be fruitful for Hader and he’ll return to where he finished 2015, in Double-A. He’ll be an interesting guy to watch to see if his stuff and deception works at higher levels. Flyballs could hurt him, but he’s smart enough to sequence pitches and keep hitters off-guard.

Impact at Maturity: Don’t expect similar strikeout rates in the majors, but he is durable and profiles as a solid #4 starter. Hader throws strikes and has kept oppBA to a minimum.

Upside Rating: 7C

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#14 in Astros system

Josh Hader (LHP) ? 6-3, 160 ? 20 ? 2012 (19) HS (MD)

Comments: Tall, lean starter with deceptive delivery and clean arm action. Tough to square up due to ability to hide the ball. Improved control despite moving parts in delivery. Found success in hitters haven by mixing three average pitches. Changes speeds and can effectively vary arm angle.

Development Path: High-A proved to be fruitful for Hader and he?ll return to where he finished 2015, in Double-A. He?ll be an interesting guy to watch to see if his stuff and deception works at higher levels. Flyballs could hurt him, but he?s smart enough to sequence pitches and keep hitters off-guard.

Impact at Maturity: Don?t expect similar strikeout rates in the majors, but he is durable and profiles as a solid #4 starter. Hader throws strikes and has kept oppBA to a minimum.

Upside Rating: 7C

Weird. I thought he'd be ranked much higher. I was thinking he'd be a candidate to be a top 100 prospect. Thanks.

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Being 14th in the Astros system isn't like being 14th in the O's system.

I know that. Being the worst team in baseball every year will give you a pretty strong farm system. Judging by Hader's stats and age, I thought he'd be a very highly rated prospect. Possibly top 100. I guess most don't think his stuff will translate well to the bigs.

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This is nice to see (fangraphs rankings):

6. Jomar Reyes, 3B: Reyes signed for $350,000 out of the Dominican almost exactly 12 months ago and, despite still being just 17 years old, was so impressive in the GCL and instructs that scouts were telling me to move him up this list in the last few days (which I did). He’s enormous–Orioles officials were estimating he’s 6’6/240–which is a couple inches taller and about 20 pounds heavier than when he signed. You would be right in assuming that this Miguel Sano-type body won’t stay at third base very long (though Baltimore will leave him there for 2015), with nearly everyone I talked to conceding Reyes will be playing first base sooner than later, although he does have a plus arm.

The carrying tool here is raw power, which is also a 60, but Reyes also has the surprising ability to hit and work counts, given his size and age. One scout said his at-bats are just as advanced as Christian Walker or Dariel Alvarez, two of the more advanced hitters in the system. A big reason for that consistency is Reyes’ balanced, low-effort, loose, repeatable swing mechanics. He’ll be aged like a 2015 high school draft prospect and probably heads to Low-A next year, with a chance to take another step forward.

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