For What it's worth.....

[davearm]

However, we also know we want another player and the Cubs look like they will do that...So obviously they think he is worth more.

The difference being, the Cubs may be considering some throwin as the 4th player (or maybe they're not). We've got more Rocky Cherrys and Jake Renshaws to spare.

Folks here seem to think that 4th guy is going to be someone with more value than any of the first three. And that a 5th or even a 6th might be added on top of that. And that Jay Payton is >0, so putting him in helps get the O's more in return.

The flawed thinking just goes on and on.

[Intimidator301]

I don't see any deals mentioned, that either teams fans should be jumping for joy at. But a fair deal would be.

Cubs Get: Roberts, Payton, and Walker,

O's Get: Gallagher,Murton, Marquis, Patterson, Cedeno, Veal.

That allows the Cubs to keep Pie, Colvin and Cerda. But to get this deal done, atleast one of the so called "untouchables" will have to be added. And Veal seems like the best canidate.

I think that's fair for both teams.

1. Patterson 2b

2. Mora/Moore 3b

3. Markakis rf

4. Huff 1b

5. Hernandez c

6. Scott lf

7. Murton/Costanzo dh

8. Jones cf

9. Cedeno ss

Bench: Huff/Mora/Moore/Castanzo, LH, Redman, Quiraz.

Millar traded to the Mets.

Gibbons traded to Japan for a plate of sushi. Might have to send some cash with Gibbons.

[Wingman]

I don't see any deals mentioned, that either teams fans should be jumping for joy at. But a fair deal would be.

Cubs Get: Roberts, Payton, and Walker,

O's Get: Gallagher,Murton, Marquis, Patterson, Cedeno, Veal.

That allows the Cubs to keep Pie, Colvin and Cerda. But to get this deal done, atleast one of the so called "untouchables" will have to be added. And Veal seems like the best canidate.

I think that's fair for both teams.

1. Patterson 2b

2. Mora/Moore 3b

3. Markakis rf

4. Huff 1b

5. Hernandez c

6. Scott lf

7. Murton/Costanzo dh

8. Jones cf

9. Cedeno ss

Bench: Huff/Mora/Moore/Castanzo, LH, Redman, Quiraz.

Millar traded to the Mets.

Gibbons traded to Japan for a plate of sushi. Might have to send some cash with Gibbons.

Fair or not, I wouldn't want those package of players... We need younger players with higher upside...

And after a second look, this is a terrible deal for the O's.

[LookinUp]

Marquis and Marshall can stay in Chicago, in my opinion. I would rather see a deal of Colvin, Veal, Gallagher, Cedeno, and PTBNL Tony Thomas for Roberts& Payton plus $2million.

Both Marquis and Marshall have 4.5+ ERA's in the NL which would be close to 5.0 or higher in the AL. If I had to live with one it would be Marshall because he is younger. The O's can use this trade to fill some positional player positions to beef up the minor league system.

Aside from Davearm's suggestion that there's no precedent for a PTBNL in these circumstances (I don't know if that's true or not) I think there's one thing that you may not realize. The Cubs likely value Thomas much more than BA does. In other words, he's not their #11 prospect in their eyes. He's their likely 2b of the future with a VERY high upside bat for a 2b.

If the O's insisted, maybe we could get him. I'd bet that a deal of that nature would likely look like this though: Gallagher, Cedeno and PTBNL Thomas. That's it.

For the record, I'd actually prefer that deal to any other rumored deal not involving Pie, Ceda or Colvin. Veal looks like a huge wildcard to me and Patterson/Fontenot just don't float my boat.

[hoosiers]

The difference being, the Cubs may be considering some throwin as the 4th player (or maybe they're not). We've got more Rocky Cherrys and Jake Renshaws to spare.

Folks here seem to think that 4th guy is going to be someone with more value than any of the first three. And that a 5th or even a 6th might be added on top of that. And that Jay Payton is >0, so putting him in helps get the O's more in return.

The flawed thinking just goes on and on.

Is this the same flawed thinking that told us for 500 posts last offseason that Murton was of equal value to Markakis?

[Intimidator301]

Fair or not, I wouldn't want those package of players... We need younger players with higher upside...

And after a second look, this is a terrible deal for the O's.

Terrible or not, that's probably the best package we can expect.

I agree that we need young players with higher upsides. The problem is, the Cubs don't have those guys at the positons we need ( ss, 2b, etc. )

We're not getting Pie, and frankly, his numbers wouldn't be that great as a LFer. And IF we did get Pie, don't expect Cerda, Veal, and Colvin to be included also.

Like I stated earlier. Not a deal mentioned should have fans of either side jumping for joy. Atleast a realistic deal. What do you expect? Pie, Gallagher, Cerda, and Veal? Maybe they throw in Marmol for Payton? Maybe if this was bizzarro world it could happen.

[AnythingO's]

Is this the same flawed thinking that told us for 500 posts last offseason that Murton was of equal value to Markakis?

Dave never said that, those discussions were equating Murton to Reimold and Dave allowed that Reimold had a higher upside but due to injuries, Murton was more likely to reach his.

Dave, the "flawed logic" that Payton has value is based on us relieving the Cubs of Marquis's contract and that should net us more value in higher prospects.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'm almost 100% sure it's been reported in other posts that there's no precedent for PTBNLing draftees of the preceding year (2007 in this case). They'd have to spend a full year in their original organization. Can anyone confirm/correct me?

[davearm]

Is this the same flawed thinking that told us for 500 posts last offseason that Murton was of equal value to Markakis?

I never said that. Go ahead and do a search.

What I've said many times is that Murton is as good a hitter as Markakis.

Career to date:

Murton .820 OPS

Markakis .826 OPS

PECOTA projection, 2008-2014:

Murton .820 OPS

Markakis .811 OPS

Yep, sorry. PECOTA thinks Markakis is only an .811 OPS guy. And here everyone assumed 2007 would make this comparison ridiculous. Guess not.

[davearm]

Dave never said that' date=' those discussions were equating Murton to Reimold and Dave allowed that Reimold had a higher upside but due to injuries, Murton was more likely to reach his.

Dave, [b']the "flawed logic" that Payton has value is based on us relieving the Cubs of Marquis's contract and that should net us more value in higher prospects[/b].

Including Marquis would obviously would change some things.

However mostly what I see here are proposals with Payton in, and Marquis not in.

[Migrant Redbird]

I am with Dave on this one...I would prefer Murton to Duncan.

OK, I'll archive that. However, I would note that Duncan's career OPS of .884 still ranks better than all AL teams except the Red Sox and White Sox and is about 150 points better than the miserable .737 posted by the DH for the O's in 2007. Murton's career OPS is about 60 points lower and it's been declining the past 2 years. Yes, Murton is a year younger, and yes, he did put up some great numbers last August and September, but the weight of the evidence is that Duncan will be a better slugger than Murton will.

If the O's are content to have guys like Huff (78 games), Millar (31), and Gibbons (28) sharing the DH spot and putting up numbers more typical of a slick fielding shortstop, more power to them. They don't need Duncan. However, if they'd like to actually get some production from the DH -- which I thought was the purpose of not letting the pitcher wield a bat -- then the O's should look at acquiring or developing someone who could put up numbers from the DH spot like Ortiz, Thome, or Hafner.

The real advantage which Roberts has from my perspective is his base running. We have some very fast young prospects, but my observation is that speed doesn't always translate into base running success as much as one would expect. Some guys never learn to read the pitchers and how to time their attempts; Roberts has already developed that skill.

Whatever PECOTA's flaws, yours are magnitudes worse as a Cards homer -- as you're demonstrating quite clearly here.

Ah, give it a break! You've demonstrated as much or more of a homer streak in this forum as I have, and possibly a lot more. I've always acknowledged the faults of Cardinals players and acknowledged that I can't project how guys like Rasmus are going to turn out. I've complained on countless occasions that Duncan's outfield shortcomings make him far more suited for an AL team. I acknowledged that he needs to prove he can hit acceptably against southpaws. And I've mentioned that he's got "good" speed, but hasn't been able to exploit that to achieve baserunning success. What else do you want, except for me to give you the PECOTA projections without taking into account the impact of his injury?

[wildcard]

Right now, I can't see the Cubs trading Dempster. He is penciled in to be the #3 starter in the rotation. He could be a trade candidate, if Lieber, Marquis, or Hart step up and really show something in the spring. Unless the Cubs have a deal in the works for a righty starter, I think Dempster stays.

You're the Cubsfan but I would have to think that Zambrano, Lilley, Hill and Marquis rank ahead of Dempster, Lieber and Hart. Marquis won 12 last year.

[Sports Guy]

The difference being, the Cubs may be considering some throwin as the 4th player (or maybe they're not). We've got more Rocky Cherrys and Jake Renshaws to spare.

Folks here seem to think that 4th guy is going to be someone with more value than any of the first three. And that a 5th or even a 6th might be added on top of that. And that Jay Payton is >0, so putting him in helps get the O's more in return.

The flawed thinking just goes on and on.

I think Eric patterson is the worse 4th player we are going to get.

[Sports Guy]

Dave never said that' date=' those discussions were equating Murton to Reimold and Dave allowed that Reimold had a higher upside but due to injuries, Murton was more likely to reach his.

Dave, the "flawed logic" that Payton has value is based on us relieving the Cubs of Marquis's contract and that should net us more value in higher prospects.[/quote']

Yes he did....

[Fairfax Bird]

I never said that. Go ahead and do a search.

What I've said many times is that Murton is as good a hitter as Markakis.

Career to date:

Murton .820 OPS

Markakis .826 OPS

PECOTA projection, 2008-2014:

Murton .820 OPS

Markakis .811 OPS

Yep, sorry. PECOTA thinks Markakis is only an .811 OPS guy. And here everyone assumed 2007 would make this comparison ridiculous. Guess not.

If you think this scenario would play out than you are utterly ridiculous.