For What it's worth.....

[Harry Carry]

I think the only guy that is untouchable is Pie AM knows that because has been on record of saying in the other 2 trades you try to make a deal without taking a guy the other team is counting on that is a contending team.I think the other guys such as Ceda,Veal,Colvin and who ever one of them I think will be in this deal.I believe it will be Ceda because of his huge upside.Remember these guys are suspects if your trying to win a World Series Hendry will not let a couple suspects stop him from trying to win.With that being said the Orioles will not get all 3 I think this deal will be pitching heavy with Gallagher a definite and Veal or Ceda as the other pitching suspect to go along with Cedeno or Patterson that is just my opinion.

[Number5]

You OHers are brutal. Everytime there's a hint of the deal heating up, the posts turn into "5 players for 2", "Pie/Colvin/Ceda included", etc.

The 5 for 2 came from a Chicago radio personality.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1233998&postcount=475

If Marquis is one of the five, I'd just as soon keep Roberts or talk to Cleveland. Marquis has reportedly been a clubhouse problem everywhere he's been. That's the last thing we need, not to mention his $16 million contract.

[Fairfax Bird]

First of all, worrying about which arm the pitcher throws with is pointless.

Secondly, you have no idea what path a guy like Olson is going to take.

We also have Sarfate, he may be able to take his place.

You also have the draft the next few years and FA.

Worrying about replacing Sherrill is about 1049 on the list of things to worry about right now.

This is absolutely true. That said, I see him as late inning reliever. He may blossom into a starter and I hope he does, but he will have value regardless.

[Sports Guy]

I would never dare dispute a PECOTA projection but it seems odd that a player whose OPS has declined all 3 years he's performed in the big leagues would project better than someone whose OPS increased significantly from year one to year two, especially when that second player had a fairly significanty better OPS in 2007. The second player is also younger than the first player. Doesn't make much sense to me, but I'm not a mathematician either.

As far as Duncan & Murton go, I would say all things being even, Duncan probably makes more sense to the O's. In a vacuum perhaps you could argue that they are close to equal, but to an AL team which has all three OF positions covered and been weak at the DH spot, Duncan makes a lot of sense. I'd be happy with either in the right deal. I certainly wouldn't trade Roberts straight up for Duncan when I can get Murton and at least 2 other players from the Cubs. I also might be a little more skeptical of Duncan getting a little artificial help to do what he's done but what do I know. Fact is, I actually think the deal will be closer to what most Cub fans on here are saying than some of the more optimistic deals proposed by SOME O's fans. Gallagher, Cedeno look to be givens. I'd love to get Colvin but I don't see it happening. I'd like to get Ceda but I'm doubtful. Looks like the O's don't want Murton but I'd be happy to get him.

I could see something like BRob and Payton for Cedeno, Gallagher, Veal, EPat and a lower level 5th guy.

The reality is there are so many possible combinations out there.

[davearm]

OK, I'll archive that. However, I would note that Duncan's career OPS of .884 still ranks better than all AL teams except the Red Sox and White Sox and is about 150 points better than the miserable .737 posted by the DH for the O's in 2007. Murton's career OPS is about 60 points lower and it's been declining the past 2 years. Yes, Murton is a year younger, and yes, he did put up some great numbers last August and September, but the weight of the evidence is that Duncan will be a better slugger than Murton will.

If the O's are content to have guys like Huff (78 games), Millar (31), and Gibbons (28) sharing the DH spot and putting up numbers more typical of a slick fielding shortstop, more power to them. They don't need Duncan. However, if they'd like to actually get some production from the DH -- which I thought was the purpose of not letting the pitcher wield a bat -- then the O's should look at acquiring or developing someone who could put up numbers from the DH spot like Ortiz, Thome, or Hafner.

The real advantage which Roberts has from my perspective is his base running. We have some very fast young prospects, but my observation is that speed doesn't always translate into base running success as much as one would expect. Some guys never learn to read the pitchers and how to time their attempts; Roberts has already developed that skill.

Ah, give it a break! You've demonstrated as much or more of a homer streak in this forum as I have, and possibly a lot more. I've always acknowledged the faults of Cardinals players and acknowledged that I can't project how guys like Rasmus are going to turn out. I've complained on countless occasions that Duncan's outfield shortcomings make him far more suited for an AL team. I acknowledged that he needs to prove he can hit acceptably against southpaws. And I've mentioned that he's got "good" speed, but hasn't been able to exploit that to achieve baserunning success. What else do you want, except for me to give you the PECOTA projections without taking into account the impact of his injury?

How is citing independent, objective data from PECOTA showing a homer streak?

That model is much more reliable than either of our eyeballs or preconceived expectations will ever be. But yet all you're relying on is the latter.

What my eyeballs and preconceived expectations tell me is that Chris Duncan is what Russell Branyan would've been if only Branyan had been able to hit .260 instead of .230: lots of HRs, lots of Ks, and no redeeming value in any other facet of the game.

[LookinUp]

Not that I'm adding any value to the discussion here, but I believe one of these three trades will happen, in no particular order:

1. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Colvin

2. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Ceda, Patterson

3. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Patterson and a non 40-man player.

No Murton. No Marshall. No Marquis. No Pie. No Fontenot. No Thomas. No Vitters. No Soto. No Marmol. No Sherrill. No Walker. No Olson.

I would be happy with all three deals.

[davearm]

If you think this scenario would play out than you are utterly ridiculous.

I don't have a better crystal ball than PECOTA.

Apparently you do?

[RShack]

I could see something like BRob and Payton for Cedeno, Gallagher, Veal, EPat and a lower level 5th guy.

The reality is there are so many possible combinations out there.

This is the thing that SG is absolutely *great* at. He can always see various ways to skin the cat.

The problem is that he *always* wants to skin the cat, no matter who the cat is.

(Unless the cat is named Nick. But give it a year or two...)

He's addicted to cat-skinning. But he's great at seeing umpteen ways to do it.

[Cubsfan]

You are showing the worthless stats as far as prediction and aren't taking into account the switch of leagues.

Marquis would be an awful AL pitcher for the price he is.

If you guys took back Payton and one of Mora, Gibbons or Baez, i would be fine with it...If you added Pie to the package of suggested players, I would be fine with that...Beyond that, it is a stupid move for the Orioles.

I used the statistics just to show that Marquis compares favorably to many #3, #4, #5 starters in the majors for pre-All Star performance. I have always stated that he's overpaid and under performing (which is true of many major leaguers) and I have never suggested that the O's should trade for him, only that his numbers aren't as bad as most people think they are. Obviously, we have no use for Mora, Gibbons, or Baez.

[Number5]

Not that I'm adding any value to the discussion here, but I believe one of these three trades will happen, in no particular order:

1. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Colvin

2. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Ceda, Patterson

3. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Patterson and a non 40-man player.

No Murton. No Marshall. No Marquis. No Pie. No Fontenot. No Thomas. No Vitters. No Soto. No Marmol. No Sherrill. No Walker. No Olson.

I would be happy with all three deals.

I'm on board with you on any of the three.

[Cubsfan]

Your the Cubsfan but I would have to think that Zambrano, Lilley, Hill and Marquis rank ahead of Dempster, Lieber and Hart. Marquis won 12 last year.

The only reason Dempster is "penciled in" for the #3 spot is to seperate the 2 lefties (Lilly and Hill). The NL Central is predominantly right-handed hitters which is why Marshall is expendable (Lou doesn't want 3 lefties in the rotation).

[nyjimbo]

Fair or not, I wouldn't want those package of players... We need younger players with higher upside...

And after a second look, this is a terrible deal for the O's.

I totally agree.

[laxtonto]

I'm almost 100% sure it's been reported in other posts that there's no precedent for PTBNLing draftees of the preceding year (2007 in this case). They'd have to spend a full year in their original organization. Can anyone confirm/correct me?

Well there are a couple things to consider...

1. A player has to remain under their parent teams control for 1 full year from the date they sign their contract

2. A PTBNL can be decided upon from a agreed upon list up to a maximum of 6 months after the trade

3. A rcent draftee can be included into a trade as a PTBNL after 6 months of being drafted, but regardless has to remain under the parent clubs control for 1 full year of the date he was drafted.

What does this mean in regards to the Brian Roberts trade?

Teams are very unlikely to trade recent draftees this early into their fist year of developement. Remember, that even if the player is traded, he still has to stay within the parent clubs system until he reaches his year mark. This leads to problems with developement tracks, and playing time and other overall developemnt issues between the 2 teams.

A more likelt scenario is the PTBNL to be used if Roberts is moved in May or June that in Mar...

[nyjimbo]

Not that I'm adding any value to the discussion here, but I believe one of these three trades will happen, in no particular order:

1. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Colvin

2. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Ceda, Patterson

3. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Patterson and a non 40-man player.

No Murton. No Marshall. No Marquis. No Pie. No Fontenot. No Thomas. No Vitters. No Soto. No Marmol. No Sherrill. No Walker. No Olson.

I would be happy with all three deals.

I would take any of those three, how about our Cubbie friends?

[Cokeman]

When we got Sherrill I understood it is as a player we would flip sooner than later for more young prospects.

The reason Sherrill was added to the deal was to come here close for a few months raise his trade value and than look to move him to add more prospects.

I'm not sure where you came up with this understanding, other than what you and other posters were wanting to happen. Trembley had said all off-season that he wanted another power lefty in the bullpen...he got his wish. I don't remember one word from the O's saying that he was only here temporarily to raise his trade value.