For What it's worth.....

[PoorMike]

Well there are a couple things to consider...

1. A player has to remain under their parent teams control for 1 full year from the date they sign their contract

2. A PTBNL can be decided upon from a agreed upon list up to a maximum of 6 months after the trade

3. A rcent draftee can be included into a trade as a PTBNL after 6 months of being drafted, but regardless has to remain under the parent clubs control for 1 full year of the date he was drafted.

What does this mean in regards to the Brian Roberts trade?

Teams are very unlikely to trade recent draftees this early into their fist year of developement. Remember, that even if the player is traded, he still has to stay within the parent clubs system until he reaches his year mark. This leads to problems with developement tracks, and playing time and other overall developemnt issues between the 2 teams.

A more likelt scenario is the PTBNL to be used if Roberts is moved in May or June that in Mar...

Are you talking about a simple difference in philosophy or do you think the team, that's trading away the player would shortchange his development because you know he's leaving?

I agree that it could be more trouble than it is worth, but I think it's feasible if the PTBNL list was "choose one of these two/three non-pitchers".

[Baltimoron]

I never said that. Go ahead and do a search.

What I've said many times is that Murton is as good a hitter as Markakis.

Career to date:

Murton .820 OPS

Markakis .826 OPS

PECOTA projection, 2008-2014:

Murton .820 OPS

Markakis .811 OPS

Yep, sorry. PECOTA thinks Markakis is only an .811 OPS guy. And here everyone assumed 2007 would make this comparison ridiculous. Guess not.

PECOTA thinks Markakis is a much better hitter than Murton.

1) Murton plays in an easier league. Thus his projected numbers get adjusted up, Markakis' down.

2) Markakis is projected to put up that line playing everyday in 2008 (690 PAs). Murton, on the other hand, is projected to put up his 2008 line over 370 PAs, meaning less than full-time (i.e lotsa at bats against lefties and limited one against righties).

3) Murton's home park is much more hitter friendlier than Markakis' home park.

What this means is that PECOTA thinks Murton can put up a batting line similar to the line Markakis is expected to put in fulltime because Murton is playing in an easier league and in an easier home park and his at bats are expected to be limited to largely favorable matchups.

-------

We could also talk about BREAKOUT rate, or:

Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

link

Nick's BREAKOUT rate is 27%, Murton's is 15%. HMMM, PECOTA seems to think Nick has much, much more upside too.

[byrdz]

Murton = Markakis = Utter Sillyness

And that's just the hitting folks!

[Baltimoron]

Davearm,

PECOTA projections are built around projecting EQA. All other numbers flow from the EQA projetion (for hitters).

EQA is a neat stat. It strips away a lot of extraneous stuff to get a raw look at a player's offensive level.

Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense.

link

What this means is for comparing players' talent, use EQA, because stuff like parks, league, etc can influence a player's line.

EQA = what PECOTA thinks of the player's talent as compared to every other offensive player.

In case it isn't obvious, PECOTA's projected EQAs for 2008-2014 favor Nick as the better hitter by an average of more than ten points of EQA a year. That's a romp for Nick.

[Sports Guy]

I used the statistics just to show that Marquis compares favorably to many #3, #4, #5 starters in the majors for pre-All Star performance. I have always stated that he's overpaid and under performing (which is true of many major leaguers) and I have never suggested that the O's should trade for him, only that his numbers aren't as bad as most people think they are. Obviously, we have no use for Mora, Gibbons, or Baez.

Well, they are if you choose to look at the real numbers...Looking at wins and ERA accomplishes very little.

The only positive is the IP and that will likely go down as he gets crushed in the AL.

[Sports Guy]

I don't have a better crystal ball than PECOTA.

Apparently you do?

Yea..The crystal ball of common sense. He had an 848 OPS last year and that was in a season where offense was down for a lot of the year.

He showed a lot of improvement last year...ZIPS has him at 843...Bill James has him at 876 and CHONE and MARCEL have him in the 830s.

The only thing that could hurt him this year is that he had a high BABIP last year...Showed some luck there...Although a lot of players seem to have this but if he is hitting balls right at people this year, he could see a dip in his OPS close to PECOTA.

But that is relying on a lot.

Everywhere else laughs at that PECOTA projection and last year was much better.

[davearm]

Davearm,

PECOTA projections are built around projecting EQA. All other numbers flow from the EQA projetion (for hitters).

EQA is a neat stat. It strips away a lot of extraneous stuff to get a raw look at a player's offensive level.

link

What this means is for comparing players' talent, use EQA, because stuff like parks, league, etc can influence a player's line.

EQA = what PECOTA thinks of the player's talent as compared to every other offensive player.

In case it isn't obvious, PECOTA's projected EQAs for 2008-2014 favor Nick as the better hitter by an average of more than ten points of EQA a year. That's a romp for Nick.

You're incorrectly applying EqA as a proxy for hitting.

As you yourself mentioned, EqA incorporates baserunning too.

The gap in just the hitting portion is smaller, as evidenced by the OPS numbers (and granted, in the park- and league-neutral eqOPS, Markakis leads).

I've long maintained that Markakis separates himself from Murton with his baserunning and his defense. As hitters, they're quite similar.

Some folks here are going to be real disappointed if/when the Paul O'Neill comps come true for Markakis. O'Neill was roughly a .360/.470/.830 career hitter. I'd feel very comfortable predicting Murton could do that in fulltime duty.

[davearm]

Yea..The crystal ball of common sense. He had an 848 OPS last year and that was in a season where offense was down for a lot of the year.

He showed a lot of improvement last year...ZIPS has him at 843...Bill James has him at 876 and CHONE and MARCEL have him in the 830s.

The only thing that could hurt him this year is that he had a high BABIP last year...Showed some luck there...Although a lot of players seem to have this but if he is hitting balls right at people this year, he could see a dip in his OPS close to PECOTA.

But that is relying on a lot.

Everywhere else laughs at that PECOTA projection and last year was much better.

And my position is that Murton can be an .830-.840 hitter too. .876 would be optimistic for either.

[oriole_way]

Honestly, I think that PECOTA projection of an .811 OPS for Nick seems a bit low, even if you err on being conservative.

I know that Nick has had only two years of experience, but his sample size is getting to the point where .811 seems almost like a worst case scenario.

[djp200]

And my position is that Murton can be an .830-.840 hitter too. .876 would be optimistic for either.

I don't have time to read through this entire thread but have you also taken into account the difference in age?

Markakis is putting up these numbers at a younger age and still three years away from his offensive prime. As has been stated, he's been doing this over the course of a full season in the majors.

I don't disagree that Murton could be a very good bat but there's a reason why one is considered a top 25 player under the age of 29 and the other isn't.

Surely, Bill James is just being silly by including one on the list and not the other? James has compared Markakis to O'Neill and others have as well. That's fine and what I've expected from Nick. But you rarely, if ever, see the same comparisons with Murton

[wildcard]

Not that I'm adding any value to the discussion here, but I believe one of these three trades will happen, in no particular order:

1. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Colvin

2. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Ceda, Patterson

3. Roberts & Payton for Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Patterson and a non 40-man player.

No Murton. No Marshall. No Marquis. No Pie. No Fontenot. No Thomas. No Vitters. No Soto. No Marmol. No Sherrill. No Walker. No Olson.

I would be happy with all three deals.

If the Cubs take Payton I would think that the O's are going to have to take an equal size contract back. I just don't see the O's sending much money with Payton. It's not in their M.O.

[ugadawg38]

I would take any of those three, how about our Cubbie friends?

i would do deal number three in a minute

[Cubsfan]

Well, they are if you choose to look at the real numbers...Looking at wins and ERA accomplishes very little.

The only positive is the IP and that will likely go down as he gets crushed in the AL.

Well you looked at the one number that you thought mattered (IP) and then downplayed that by saying it will go down as he gets crushed in the AL. My original point was (and is), Marquis is an expensive #4 or #5 starter, who eats innings, on most teams. Looking throughout either league many of the #4 and #5 (and sometimes #3) starters are overpaid and underperforming and Marquis has done better than most of them during the first half of each season and not as well as some during the second half of each season. Again we're not discussing the ace of anyone's staff here.

[Harry Carry]

As a cub fan I would take any of the 3 deals.I just want to get the deal done.

[cindyluvsbrady]

As a cub fan I would take any of the 3 deals.I just want to get the deal done.

Of course you would.You only care about the CUBS:002_smad:

I care about My beloved Os:)

My Perfect One needs to stay here!!!:002_ssad: