D-Cab Still Bad

[byrdz]

Old#5fan, only thing you know about the game is this:

Game 1) 0-0 game with 27 outs left

Game 2) 0-0 game with 26 outs left

Which game do you have a better chance of scoring a single run?

.

[Old#5fan]

I made a meager contribution to this thread when it began yesterday. I have just waded through the sometimes wildly amusing 12 pages posted today and have reached this conclusion:

There must be something bad....very, very bad.....in the drinking water in Sheperdstown, WV....

You are correct, so I drink only bottled water!

[Old#5fan]

Baseball operates on such a smaller scale though. I would expect you to understand this if you've been watching the game for so long.

No the scale in keeping score is still inning by inning the last time I checked.

[Old#5fan]

Old#5fan, only thing you know about the game is this:

Game 1) 0-0 game with 27 outs left

Game 2) 0-0 game with 26 outs left

Which game do you have a better chance of scoring a single run?

.

Game two but not by much as you got one more out to work with.

[BaltimoreTerp]

No the scale in keeping score is still inning by inning the last time I checked.

No, the scale is over the whole game. You don't "lose" innings.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Game two but not by much as you got one more out to work with.

You mean game one...

And that's the point. The extra out improves your chances (and I believe statistics show it's a pretty significant amount, whether it is one out in a game or especially one out in an inning).

[Old#5fan]

No, the scale is over the whole game. You don't "lose" innings.

True, not per say, but the score is given at the end of each inning so technically the score is kept inning by inning is it not?

[Old#5fan]

You mean game one...

And that's the point. The extra out improves your chances (and I believe statistics show it's a pretty significant amount, whether it is one out in a game or especially one out in an inning).

Right, I meant game one as you pointed out.

[O'sFanThruJune]

Old#5fan, only thing you know about the game is this:

Game 1) 0-0 game with 27 outs left

Game 2) 0-0 game with 26 outs left

Which game do you have a better chance of scoring a single run?

.

Of course anyone would choose game 1. That's not really the question. The question is:

Game 1) 1-0 game with 26 outs left, no one on base

Game 2) 0-0 game with 27 outs left, men on 1st and 3rd

That is the difference between the "productive out" (sac fly) with a man on third and the walk in the same situation.

[O'sFanThruJune]

The answer to my above question is, I suspect, pretty much academic, although I don't have the data on hand to support it. The better alternative is the one that results in a higher number of expected runs in that inning. That is, the average number of runs that are scored in those situations league wide.

So game 1 results in X expected runs in the first inning, and game 2 results in Y expected runs in the first inning. X is clearly greater than 1, because one run has already scored. It's equal to 1 plus the average number of runs that score in the situation "bases empty with 1 out". Y is the average number of runs that score in the situation "runners on 1st, 3rd with no outs". I don't have the numbers, but I'm guessing X would be something like 1.5, while Y would be around 2.0, which would mean that Game 2 is the preferable situation.

[byrdz]

Of course anyone would choose game 1. That's not really the question. The question is:

Game 1) 1-0 game with 26 outs left' date=' no one on base

Game 2) 0-0 game with 27 outs left, men on 1st and 3rd

That is the difference between the "productive out" (sac fly) with a man on third and the walk in the same situation.[/quote']

It was nothing more than a simplified way of looking at outs and their value. In most cases (99%) you don't want to give up the out because you have just taken away chances to score. Sure you may score one or two runs in the scenario above but you hurt yourself worse by giving up the out when you more than likely didn't have to and would have potentially scored the run anyway. I would much rather a player take a walk in that situation than hit a sac fly, assuming this isn't a game winning sac fly, which it isn't considering there are that many outs left. You've increased your chances of scoring those guys that are on base and then some. Instead of scoring maybe 2 runs, you could potentially score 4 or more runs. Don't forget that there is another team trying to beat you.

[O'sFanThruJune]

I guess I should have looked it up before posting, because it really didn't take long: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php

X = 1 + .28 = 1.28

Y = 1.82

Therefore, the walk is better than the sac fly with a runner on third and no outs, making the "productive out" a bad thing, when compared to a walk.

[byrdz]

I guess I should have looked it up before posting' date=' because it really didn't take long: [url']http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php[/url]

X = 1 + .28 = 1.28

Y = 1.82

Therefore, the walk is better than the sac fly with a runner on third and no outs, making the "productive out" a bad thing, when compared to a walk.

Thanks or posting that and it's exactly my point.

Expected Runs Matrix for 2005

           OUTSRUNNERS       0       1       2   ---  0.5165  0.2796  0.1075   1--  0.8968  0.5487  0.2370   -2-  1.1385  0.6911  0.3502   12-  1.4693  0.9143  0.4433   --3  1.5120  0.9795  0.3718   1-3  1.8228  1.1830  0.4931   -23  2.0363  1.4144  0.6073   123  2.3109  1.5279  0.7485

[Old#5fan]

If you know the walk is a productive walk I would agree that I would take it over a productive out. That is a no brainer because you have scored a run in each case but in the walk scenario not caused the out. Again, I don't see what the argument is. A productive out is better than a non-productive walk. Of course a productive walk is better than a productive out. I don't disagree at all on that.

[blahblah]

You are correct, so I drink only bottled water!

You've got to watch out for those nasty's trying to taint your vital personal fluids...

Elliot