At what OPS would you not offer Davis a QO?

[TouchemAll]

I know the majority are so sure that Chris will turn down the QO and sign the big $$$$.

I was leaning that way too, but I don't know, been a rough year for him so far.

One Word >>>>>> Boras

[Redskins Rick]

One Word >>>>>> Boras

Probably, but we shall see.

[Three Run Homer]

OPS may not be the right stat to look at in this case. Regardless of his OPS, if he hits a sexy number of home runs I think it's a good bet that someone will offer him a nice contract.

[weams]

OPS may not be the right stat to look at in this case. Regardless of his OPS, if he hits a sexy number of home runs I think it's a good bet that someone will offer him a nice contract.

Sexy. Like 25 Which will be top ten in the league this season.

[Frobby]

This is a really weak argument IMO. Reynolds was worth 0.2 WAR in 2012. For the years 2010-2012 he managed 0.4, 0.6, and 0.2 WAR. Davis has put up 6.5, 1.8, and 1.0 so far this year for a pace around 2.8 or so. Comparing their OPS is just not a good comparison. Their value as players is just not that similar and there was basically no upside for Reynolds beyond what we was doing and a lot of downside. Davis clearly has a much higher top to his expected range with a higher middle value and higher lower value overall. All numbers BBref. Add to that the fact that everyone in baseball knew Reynolds was a one trick pony with a very long swing and a lot of loft that hit basically mistakes while providing no defensive or basepath value and they just aren't the same players. Davis can hit good pitches when he gets on a roll.

You're going to be really wrong on this one.

I agree that Davis is a better player than Reynolds. But there's a lot of room between being non-tendered and getting 1/$6 mm, and getting a four-year, $65 mm contract.

I'm not going to spend any more time debating it now, because there are more than 100 games left to play and I have no idea how Davis' final numbers will turn out. Let's say he gets hot and ends up replicating or bettering his 2012 season. In that case, maybe he does get 4/$65 mm. But if he stays where he is now, or worse, then I really don't see it.