Dylan Bundy (Begins Throwing Program)

[Crazysilver03]

I'm not sure the lesson should be "don't draft high school pitchers", so much as it should be "don't refuse to participate in avenues for talent acquisition."

1. There are limited avenues for bringing talent into your system

2. A couple of those avenues are themselves limited by restrictions on spending

3. Natural attribution, combined with any shortcomings in your developmental system that you have not yet identified/corrected, makes depth really important

No one said don't draft high school pitchers. The whole statements was don't draft high school and sign them to major league deals. If it wasn't for the major league deal, this news would be nearly as devastating as it is.

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[mdbdotcom]

He would be a good chip to Philly. If they had anything that could make this team better.

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How could he be a good chip to anyone, now that no one has any idea how far down his ceiling has been lowered?

[Stotle]

No one said don't draft high school pitchers. The whole statements was don't draft high school and sign them to major league deals. If it wasn't for the major league deal, this news would be nearly as devastating as it is.

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That stopped being an issue four drafts ago, when it was no longer permitted.

[Crazysilver03]

How could he be a good chip to anyone, now that no one has any idea how far down his ceiling has been lowered?

I only mentioned the Phillies. Because they are the Phillies. I wouldn't expect to get much of a return.

Though I guess Bundy can just be on the major league DL until his eventual DFA if he has more injuries.

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[Crazysilver03]

That stopped being an issue four drafts ago, when it was no longer permitted.

Yes. We are all aware of that. Thankfully that was dealt with.

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[Stotle]

Here's a philosophical/historical discussion starter:

The Majors, back about 100 years ago, started buying up minor league teams and forming very one-sided partnerships with minor leagues. Subjugating these teams, making them shells of real teams and leagues, only serving the MLB masters. This was mainly to save money and to lock up all the talent in the country in the MLB system. But a consequence was that they then accepted all of the cost and risk of developing young players.

The NFL and NBA lucked into a system where much of the development time and cost and risk was pushed onto college teams. If a great QB gets hurt as a college junior it never cost the NFL a dime. You don't draft and pay for anyone until they've vetted themselves at a reasonably high level of competition. The majors don't do that - the MLB draft is full of 17-year-old first round pitchers who have an attrition rate of 50% and a $2M pricetag.

The Majors could have let much of the minor leagues stay free, stay independent. They could have let the independent minors (or maybe college) have everyone under a certain age, and then have to draft/buy/whatever those players later. And then Dylan Bundy and the thousands of other 22-year-old injured phenoms would be guys who got hurt on the York Revolution's or Old Dominion University's dime instead of the Orioles.

I'd think teams prefer the current system, where you spend $6-10 MM a year in exchange for really cheap labor and get to lock-up the talent before most of them have any real leverage.

[Stotle]

Yes. We are all aware of that. Thankfully that was dealt with.

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I don't think it was something that needed to be "dealt with." Teams were under no obligation to hand out MLB deals. The only thing the rule change did was remove it as a bargaining chip. Bundy got injured -- that's the only issue.

[waroriole]

I'm not sure the lesson should be "don't draft high school pitchers", so much as it should be "don't refuse to participate in avenues for talent acquisition."

1. There are limited avenues for bringing talent into your system

2. A couple of those avenues are themselves limited by restrictions on spending

3. Natural attribution, combined with any shortcomings in your developmental system that you have not yet identified/corrected, makes depth really important

This. The unwillingness to look for premium amateur talent through any means but the Rule 4 draft results in the lack of talent in the minor league system.

[Crazysilver03]

This. The unwillingness to look for premium amateur talent through any means but the Rule 4 draft results in the lack of talent in the minor league system.

So how did the team end up with Schoop, Gonzo, Chen, Alvarez, Urrutia, Miranda, Veloz, Reyes, etc?

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[Can_of_corn]

So how did the team end up with Schoop, Gonzo, Chen, Alvarez, Urrutia, Miranda, Veloz, Reyes, etc?

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Psst, you might want to remove Veloz from your list.

[Crazysilver03]

Psst, you might want to remove Veloz from your list.

Hey he was the most premium amateur talent we had signed.

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[waroriole]

So how did the team end up with Schoop, Gonzo, Chen, Alvarez, Urrutia, Miranda, Veloz, Reyes, etc?

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Those guys weren't premium talents (God I sound like you know who) other than Veloz, who was dealing with PED issues. I don't get the willingness to waste the same amount of money on guys like Urrutia, Alvarez, and the other Asian P when you could take basically the same money and use it for a guy who may pay off in a huge way.

They're willing to look into other markets for medium range talent or less, but won't look at any market for top flight guys. Hell, they're even giving away draft picks to teams that will take our under performing BP guys.

[Crazysilver03]

Those guys weren't premium talents (God I sound like you know who) other than Veloz, who was dealing with PED issues. I don't get the willingness to waste the same amount of money on guys like Urrutia, Alvarez, and the other Asian P when you could take basically the same money and use it for a guy who may pay off in a huge way.

They're willing to look into other markets for medium range talent or less, but won't look at any market for top flight guys. Hell, they're even giving away draft picks to teams that will take our under performing BP guys.

Who has cost what HenryU and Alvarez did that is a premium talent?

And you bring up a good point. Schoop wasn't a top talent but they developed him into one. Reyes looks like the next one. They took a top guy and it failed. The "premium" talent doesn't succeed as much as some people make it seem.

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[waroriole]

Who has cost what HenryU and Alvarez did that is a premium talent?

And you bring up a good point. Schoop wasn't a top talent but they developed him into one. Reyes looks like the next one. They took a top guy and it failed. The "premium" talent doesn't succeed as much as some people make it seem.

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I don't have any specific players in mind, I'd just rather see that money invested in younger players who have more upside than a guy whose best projection is 4th OF or below average ML starter.

[Can_of_corn]

Who has cost what HenryU and Alvarez did that is a premium talent?

And you bring up a good point. Schoop wasn't a top talent but they developed him into one. Reyes looks like the next one. They took a top guy and it failed. The "premium" talent doesn't succeed as much as some people make it seem.

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Well, he was premium by Oriole standards (300K).

This list from 2009 has 31 guys that signed for a million or higher.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/10/4/1069057/30-largest-latin-american-signing