Manny Should Be Batting 3rd

[Camden_yardbird]

16 of his 20 home runs are solo homers simply because the bottom of the order players are not getting on base for him. This team is wasting his power by batting him lead off. I know his stolen bases would probably drop off a little, but I would take RBI over stolen bases any day.

[Can_of_corn]

No.

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[Camden_yardbird]

No.

...

Good point. Nice analysis.

[Can_of_corn]

Good point. Nice analysis.

I could link to the dozens of times I have talked about this in the past if you would like.

I could post a link to The Book.

Oh wait I can go the easy way and just link to an article then quote the part about hitting third.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

The Third Spot

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

[Il BuonO]

With the way he's driving the ball to all fields you could argue for 4th but he very well may have become comfortable in the lead off spot.

[Can_of_corn]

With the way he's driving the ball to all fields you could argue for 4th but he very well may have become comfortable in the lead off spot.

Ideally I'd put him second. I'm not sold on him consistently being a 30+ HR guy.

[backwardsk]

I could link to the dozens of times I have talked about this in the past if you would like.

I could post a link to The Book.

Oh wait I can go the easy way and just link to an article then quote the part about hitting third.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Guys who bat 4th or 5th have more opportunities to drive guys in than the number 3 hitter. That couldn't possibly be because teams tend to bat their best hitter third and they are more prone to get themselves in scoring position. When teams start batting their fifth best hitter third, the opportunities for the 4th and 5th hitters couldn't possibly decrease, could it?

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[TINSTAAPP]

Ideally I'd put him second. I'm not sold on him consistently being a 30+ HR guy.

I don't see Manny being a consistent 30+ HR guy either. But I can definitely see him averaging around 25 HRs with a line of .290/.370/.550 at his peak. Those numbers will be more than good enough for a #3 hitter.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't see Manny being a consistent 30+ HR guy either. But I can definitely see him averaging around 25 HRs with a line of .290/.370/.550 at his peak. Those numbers will be more than good enough for a #3 hitter.

The problem is, they are also good enough for him to bat first, second, fourth or fifth.

He's wasted at third.

[Can_of_corn]

Guys who bat 4th or 5th have more opportunities to drive guys in than the number 3 hitter. That couldn't possibly be because teams tend to bat their best hitter third and they are more prone to get themselves in scoring position. When teams start batting their fifth best hitter third, the opportunities for the 4th and 5th hitters couldn't possibly decrease, could it?

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You really think the difference in OBP of the "best hitter hitting third" is enough to skew the numbers?

[backwardsk]

You really think the difference in OBP of the "best hitter hitting third" is enough to skew the numbers?

Not just OBP, but ability to knock the leadoff or second guy from 1st to 3rd with less than two outs, ability to produce extra base hits. Yes, that would create more opportunities for the 4th and 5th hitters.

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[Camden_yardbird]

I could link to the dozens of times I have talked about this in the past if you would like.

I could post a link to The Book.

Oh wait I can go the easy way and just link to an article then quote the part about hitting third.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

The data seems to indicate otherwise:

www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5024

#1 hitters drove in close to 9% of their team's runs while #3 hitters were around 15% and #5 guys were close to 13%.

RBI

3 14048

4 14588

1 8904

2 10262

5 12774

6 11250

7 10360

source:http://rotoexperts.com/91058/fantasy-baseball-ranks-position-batting-order-impact/

Data seems to indicate that batting third does matter as far as driving in runs.

[mdbdotcom]

Manny is fine where he is. I would like to see Schoop moved up.

[Frobby]

The problem is, they are also good enough for him to bat first, second, fourth or fifth.

He's wasted at third.

Can we bat him in all those spots?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Manny is fine where he is. I would like to see Schoop moved up.

Exactly. Leave him right where he is.