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Dan Szymborski on all things Orioles


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Dave Szymborski (creator of ZiPS and lifelong Orioles fan) had his weekly chat on fangraphs on Monday, and gave opinions on a bunch of Orioles-related topics:

Comment From Os

Should the O's try to resign Davis due to the fact that Flaherty is next on the depth chart and Christian Walker is not a very intriguing prospect

Dan Szymborski: They shouldl at least try (and give a QO), but the team is very passive and I don't expect them to win any kind of bidding war.

Makes me sad to think about, but I think this current O's core is past its peak now. The farm system has been declining for the last few years as graduations haven't been replaced that well and most of their remaining good prospects have seen bad things happen to them over the last year or two.

Wieters is likely gone as is Davis. Think Chen signing elsewhere is likely too.

Comment From mtsw

Orioles Rule 5 pick Jason Garcia probably kinda sucks, but now that they're already sacrificed so much to keep him around you may as well burn a 25-man spot on him for the next 3 weeks to gain permanent control right?

Dan Szymborski: At this point you might as well. The past season is already gone, at this point, the question is if he's worth keeping for 3 weeks, which he totally is, I think. I don't think I'd keep him all season, but with 4.5 months about gone, you may as well

Comment From mtsw

Is Jimmy Paredes something? Seems like the league has mostly figured him out and now he's basically a DH with a .700 OPS

Dan Szymborski: No. He's a flailing hitter that would probably swing at a baseball-shaped cloud. He had a few good months, but the reality is he's essentially a replacement level DH, a Kevin Witt type.

Comment From Os

I'm fine with Wieters and Chen leaving. you could not convince me Caleb Joseph isn?t better than Wieters right now. Davis leaving concerns me. if they could get him for 4/60 or 4/65, I think they should go for it.

Dan Szymborski: That's more a reflection of how far Wieters has fallen. Joseph has been good this year. As a 29-year-old in 200-some PA. Let's not go nuts about Joseph.

Comment From Chuqui

Any thoughts on Jonathan Schoop? His walk rate is soooo low, but he does seem to have decent enough strikeout numbers combined with some pop. Do you see a league average 2b here?

Dan Szymborski: I think he can be, but I think he'll always be a fairly low OBP player

Comment From Neal

What kind of contract do you see Chen getting?

Dan Szymborski: I think he'll get 4/70 from someone. Though remember, I?m talking without a lot of time to really crunch numbers

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-81015/

I thought the comment on Paredes was pretty funny, and true.

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I agree that losing Davis will be a huge blow to this team, but I still see the core of this team being pretty decent. I still expect us to re-tool and be competing for the AL East title next season.

We need to replace Davis' production. Maybe it will take two players to do that. The question is can we replace it for less than he will get paid next winter?

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Don't have a problem with most of his comments, except for Schoop. Schoop "can be" a league average second baseman? I'd say he's already better than that (in an admittedly SSS) and still improving.

I like Schoop a lot but let's be real here. He has a 3.0% walk rate this year and his batting average is being carried by his .326 BABIP. The jury is still very much out on him as a Major League player.

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I like Schoop a lot but let's be real here. He has a 3.0% walk rate this year and his batting average is being carried by his .326 BABIP. The jury is still very much out on him as a Major League player.

He's easily a 20+ homer guy with above average defense. Even if he bats .220 thats league average 2b.

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I like Schoop a lot but let's be real here. He has a 3.0% walk rate this year and his batting average is being carried by his .326 BABIP. The jury is still very much out on him as a Major League player.

He has a .326 BABIP because he's smoking the ball. He's making hard contact 35% of the time, which puts him on par with guys like Teixeira, Cruz and Bautista.

I agree with the tenor of Szymborksi's comments that he's probably always going to be a low OBP guy. I can live with that so long as he's in the .300 OBP range (not .244 like last year) and continues to show plus power. Throw in his defense (great arm and DP skills, range is just OK) and to me he projects as an above average 2B who will probably make a few all star teams over the course of his career.

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I like Schoop a lot but let's be real here. He has a 3.0% walk rate this year and his batting average is being carried by his .326 BABIP. The jury is still very much out on him as a Major League player.

Are you saying that the jury is out on whether or not he'll be a major league player? Or just on what type of player he'll be? My opinion is that the only thing the jury is out on is whether he'll just be an average player, or a long time star.

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He has a .326 BABIP because he's smoking the ball. He's making hard contact 35% of the time, which puts him on par with guys like Teixeira, Cruz and Bautista.

I agree with the tenor of Szymborksi's comments that he's probably always going to be a low OBP guy. I can live with that so long as he's in the .300 OBP range (not .244 like last year) and continues to show plus power. Throw in his defense (great arm and DP skills, range is just OK) and to me he projects as an above average 2B who will probably make a few all star teams over the course of his career.

I still think people are having a hard time adjusting to the new normal, the current strike zone. 10 years ago a .290 OBP was frankly embarrassing, the kind of thing you might put up with out of Ozzie Smith, but otherwise totally unacceptable. Now a .290 is about 20 points below average, it's what a .320 used to be. Because of this, if you can hit anywhere close to .300 (BA that is) it's hard to not be a good player.

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