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vs. TWINS, 8/20


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This exchange from last night's game thread needs to be stickied somewhere:

We have to be in the upper half of "give back runs" after we score. Maybe in the top-3.

Can anyone provide a percentage of innings after which we've scored where we allowed a run the next inning? (Perhaps removing situations where we scored and then there was no following inning, like we score in the top of the 9th but not enough to win or tie, etc) I have no idea how to look this up efficiently!

I have done this before, but I could not find an efficient way to do it. I analyzed every line score for the Orioles and two other teams over a period of months. It was painstaking, but I found that despite the belief on here that we always give up runs after scoring, I found it was only around 30% or so (I can't remember the exact number). That was lower than the Red Sox and Yankees, as I recall.

Appreciate the response. When was this study concluded (what period of months did it include)?

You can do the recent one and report back to us. It appears that every time someone makes this pronouncement and then someone goes and does the work, it disproves it.

I just ran the numbers for 2015 for the Orioles (if someone wants to run it for other teams, feel free). Thus far, the Orioles have scored in 279 innings in which the opposing team had an at-bat in the next subsequent half inning. Of those, the Orioles have allowed the opposing team to score in the next subsequent half inning 78 times, or 27.96%. In 51 games, the Orioles scored in such an inning at least once and never allowed the opposing team to score in the next subsequent half inning. (In another 9 games, the Orioles never scored in a half-inning in which the opposing team had a subsequent at-bat.)

Given that the odds of a MLB team scoring in any given inning is about 27.5% (based on dated data: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/datasets/expectedruns.html), that seems like about what you would expect. I would think the team is probably around league average in "give back" innings.

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Looks like Gozer is in town.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In the words of <a href="https://twitter.com/JMisudek">@JMisudek</a> - "This looks like Ghostbusters." <a href="http://t.co/FqlVxVxwoT">pic.twitter.com/FqlVxVxwoT</a></p>— Ryan Wagner (@rwags614) <a href="

">August 20, 2015</a></blockquote>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In the words of <a href="https://twitter.com/JMisudek">@JMisudek</a> - "This looks like Ghostbusters." <a href="http://t.co/FqlVxVxwoT">pic.twitter.com/FqlVxVxwoT</a></p>— Ryan Wagner (@rwags614) <a href="
">August 20, 2015</a></blockquote>

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Case of parallel evolution.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A pic from staff photographer Karl Ferron, who's waiting out this rain delay with fans at Oriole Park <a href="http://t.co/wprTEUU8vl">pic.twitter.com/wprTEUU8vl</a></p>— The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) <a href="

">August 20, 2015</a></blockquote>

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Case of parallel evolution.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Here comes the rain again, falling on my head like a memory, falling on my head like a new emotion." <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IBackTheBirds?src=hash">#IBackTheBirds</a> <a href="http://t.co/G7HzY3w8qO">pic.twitter.com/G7HzY3w8qO</a></p>— Frank Miller (@fmillerusa) <a href="

">August 20, 2015</a></blockquote>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="fi" dir="ltr">Auntie Emm, Auntie Emm <a href="http://t.co/6IZcwTrSAt">pic.twitter.com/6IZcwTrSAt</a></p>— Jim Hunter (@JimOriolesTV) <a href="

">August 20, 2015</a></blockquote>

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