Dan's Offseason Moves Part One: Cruz

[Can_of_corn]

Pearce's projection was heavily inflated by one blip year. De Aza had two 2+ WAR seasons back in 2011/2012. Those were the two top projected producers of the group and outside of those three seasons between their combined 15 years of ML ball neither has ever been anything other than a replacement level player. When utilizing projections I think you have to examine the statistics being utilized by the system in order to determine whether or not there is some built-in variables the system may not be catching.

I similarly would assume that Machado was a safe bet to outdistance his 2 zWAR (or whatever it was).

EDIT -- Yikes, Manny's 1.1 zWAR.

Lough was worth 2.7 rWAR in 2013 and 1.6 in 2014.

[Stotle]

But when you win by 12 games the year before, and are expecting an increase in production in other areas, then getting two wins from that group could be a viable strategy. You could also get lucky and get 4+ wins out of them.

I guess if you assume true talent was Baltimore being 12 games better than the rest of the division. Is that what you believed?

[Stotle]

Lough was worth 2.7 rWAR in 2013 and 1.6 in 2014.

If you say so. Me, I'd like a little more regular playing time before buying into the 2.whatever of that was attributed to defense.

[Can_of_corn]

If you say so. Me, I'd like a little more regular playing time before buying into the 2.whatever of that was attributed to defense.

Not disagreeing with you but, according to those metrics, he had the potential to provide value well beyond that of a replacement level player. As opposed to someone like Young.

Obviously he didn't even live up to his earlier performance by that metric (.2 rWAR in 2015)

[Stotle]

Not disagreeing with you but, according to those metrics, he had the potential to provide value well beyond that of a replacement level player. As opposed to someone like Young.

Obviously he didn't even live up to his earlier performance by that metric (.2 rWAR in 2015)

The projections Frobby posted had him as an anticipated 0.4 WAR performer.

[Can_of_corn]

I guess if you assume true talent was Baltimore being 12 games better than the rest of the division. Is that what you believed?

I think they were a good eight games better then the competition last year. (Gut estimation)

Which means if they had to give up a bit for financial reasons they should still have been in good shape.

[Can_of_corn]

The projections Frobby posted had him as an anticipated 0.4 WAR performer.

Yes, I am aware of that.

I was merely stating that in the two prior seasons he had eclipsed that value rather handily.

[Stotle]

I think they were a good eight games better then the competition last year. (Gut estimation)

Which means if they had to give up a bit for financial reasons they should still have been in good shape.

Slightly different question, I think. Not "did they perform 12 games better?" Rather, "was the team, on paper, 8 games better than the rest of the division beginning the offseason?"

[Stotle]

Yes, I am aware of that.

I was merely stating that in the two prior seasons he had eclipsed that value rather handily.

Sorry, I guess I wasn't following. What did you think, personally? Lough an everyday player? 2 win guy you plug in the lineup?

[Can_of_corn]

Slightly different question, I think. Not "did they perform 12 games better?" Rather, "was the team, on paper, 8 games better than the rest of the division beginning the offseason?"

How would you like to quantify that? By pythag they were nine games better then the Blue Jays in 2014.

[Frobby]

Yes, I am aware of that.

I was merely stating that in the two prior seasons he had eclipsed that value rather handily.

I'm always a little suspicious of WAR figures that are highly influenced by dWAR (or UZR) extremes, and I think any projection system tends to modulate them. I always felt Lough's 2014 WAR figures were not grounded in reality. But in any event, Lough's fringe-acceptable offense in 2014 turned into an abysmal offensive performance in 2015.

[Can_of_corn]

Sorry, I guess I wasn't following. What did you think, personally? Lough an everyday player? 2 win guy you plug in the lineup?

No.

That used properly, and if the defensive metrics were to be believed, that he could provide upwards of two wins worth of value.

I would have preferred a platoon partner to him playing everyday.

I don't think given his performance the two years prior that it was a stretch to think he could outproduce the .4 WAR projection.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm always a little suspicious of WAR figures that are highly influenced by dWAR (or UZR) extremes, and I think any projection system tends to modulate them. I always felt Lough's 2014 WAR figures were not grounded in reality. But in any event, Lough's fringe-acceptable offense in 2014 turned into an abysmal offensive performance in 2015.

I don't know anyone that would argue that point.

[Stotle]

How would you like to quantify that? By pythag they were nine games better then the Blue Jays in 2014.

If you were in charge of putting together the 2015 roster for the Orioles, starting October, would you set on your task confident the rest of the division had to find a way to improve by around 10 games at a minimum?

It's a simple, but complex, question I guess. I assume you'd look at the rosters, look at injuries, under- and over-performers, prospects maybe, whether teams out of the race played greater-than-usual number of young players in September since they were out of it so early, etc.

It isn't meant to be a trick question. I'd think if you believed the Orioles to be at least ten games better than the competition they'd be essentially a no brainer to pick to win the division -- that's an awful lot of ground to make up in one offseason.

[Can_of_corn]

If you were in charge of putting together the 2015 roster for the Orioles, starting October, would you set on your task confident the rest of the division had to find a way to improve by around 10 games at a minimum?

It's a simple, but complex, question I guess. I assume you'd look at the rosters, look at injuries, under- and over-performers, prospects maybe, whether teams out of the race played greater-than-usual number of young players in September since they were out of it so early, etc.

It isn't meant to be a trick question. I'd think if you believed the Orioles to be at least ten games better than the competition they'd be essentially a no brainer to pick to win the division -- that's an awful lot of ground to make up in one offseason.

I would say that the 2014 team was roughly eight games better then the competition.

After that the situation becomes overly fluid as the rosters shift.

But I would think that there was, initially, a talent buffer between the O's and the rest of the division.

Does that answer your question?