I Think I Would Let Wieters Go

[Rene88]

Put a bad catcher behind the plate and you will quickly see the impact it has on the finished product on the field.

Do you think MW is a bad catcher or Joseph? I wasn't sure of your point there. I don't think either is bad. In fact, I would say both are good. MW just isn't worth that kinda dough to watch him hit slow rollers to second.

[24fps]

No' date=' but I think the risk is worth the reward. I think at around 7 million a WAR, Wieters could be a 2 WAR player, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. So it's not a 17 million dollar gamble.[/quote']

You don't think you could buy a player a heck of a lot more likely to put up 2WAR than Matt Wieters who is now at 99 OPS+ and falling for $17 million?

[Redskins Rick]

Do you think MW is a bad catcher or Joseph? I wasn't sure of your point there. I don't think either is bad. In fact, I would say both are good. MW just isn't worth that kinda dough to watch him hit slow rollers to second.

I think Joseph is a very good catcher.

I think MW is a very good catcher and I know, he gets lots of grief in OH about framing, handling pitchers and streaky bat.

I know you are not a MW fan, and I wish he had lived up the hype, but with that said, he provided a very good defense for quite a few years for the team.

[Rene88]

I think Joseph is a very good catcher.

I think MW is a very good catcher and I know, he gets lots of grief in OH about framing, handling pitchers and streaky bat.

I know you are not a MW fan, and I wish he had lived up the hype, but with that said, he provided a very good defense for quite a few years for the team.

I agree with all of that. Good post.

I just wouldn't pay him $17M to roll the dice. Plus, I think Joseph and Clevenger gives us similar production (if not better) and we need the money for other things (hope we spend it).

[Aristotelian]

No' date=' but I think the risk is worth the reward. I think at around 7 million a WAR, Wieters could be a 2 WAR player, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. So it's not a 17 million dollar gamble.[/quote']

He's put up -0.3 WAR this year. So his production could be a good deal less than 2 WAR. He will be a year removed from TJ surgery, but he will also be a year older. I don't know, he seems more and more like where Markakis was at the end of last year. If the O's play it the same way, they will not risk the QO.

[Crazysilver03]

No' date=' but I think the risk is worth the reward. I think at around 7 million a WAR, Wieters could be a 2 WAR player, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. So it's not a 17 million dollar gamble.[/quote']

If he was remotely close to a 2 WAR player this year, offering the QO would be simple.

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[Redskins Rick]

I agree with all of that. Good post.

I just wouldn't pay him $17M to roll the dice. Plus, I think Joseph and Clevenger gives us similar production (if not better) and we need the money for other things (hope we spend it).

Did we ever sort out what the QO, I thought it was 17, and then they claimed it was 15+.

Regardless less, thats a tough call to make, pretty expensive call at that, but I suspect the team will do it.

I've continue to believe that some GM will overpay Matt to be their catcher.

[Crazysilver03]

Did we ever sort out what the QO, I thought it was 17, and then they claimed it was 15+.

Regardless less, thats a tough call to make, pretty expensive call at that, but I suspect the team will do it.

I've continue to believe that some GM will overpay Matt to be their catcher.

Right around $16M

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[Redskins Rick]

Right around $16M

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Thanks!!!!!!

[winkies]

If you pay 7 million per win then why do 8 WAR players only get like 30 million a year?

I don't buy this WAR and salary conversion thing at all. If Wieters true talent level is 2 WAR and he wants 14 million then screw it. Let him walk.

[LookitsPuck]

Do you consider him a solid contributor this year?

And will you blame DD if MW accepts the QO?

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He's been eh at best this year. Mostly because he doesn't play often enough and I don't think he's back to full strength, yet.

And no I won't blame Duquette if MW accepts. It's a risk you have to take.

[weams]

If you pay 7 million per win then why do 8 WAR players only get like 30 million a year?

I don't buy this WAR and salary conversion thing at all. If Wieters true talent level is 2 WAR and he wants 14 million then screw it. Let him walk.

Because there are no 8 WAR players. Not for real. Not forever. And when they sign pre-arb, they take a hit.

[weams]

If you pay 7 million per win then why do 8 WAR players only get like 30 million a year?

I don't buy this WAR and salary conversion thing at all. If Wieters true talent level is 2 WAR and he wants 14 million then screw it. Let him walk.

It is 7 per WAR in FA and that is an average over a much longer time span than just the year they go FA. Also, in FA, defensive WAR tends to get undervalued. These teams actually have proprietary methods to determine value to THEIR clubs.

[weams]

What happens if (a) we make a qualifying offer to Wieters, (b) he turns it down, and © does not sign with another club until after the (June?) cutoff date next season? Do we still get a draft pick if no team has to forfeit one to sign him?

No, But that won't happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you pay 7 million per win then why do 8 WAR players only get like 30 million a year?

Because of a number of factors. Most importantly:

1) Risk mitigation and regression and injuries. No one believes that anyone is likely

to be an 8-WAR player every year.

2) Aging. Most long contracts are well into a players' decline phase. Almost no one is an 8-win player in their mid-30s.

3) Leveling. A contract like Pujols' almost certainly anticipated 8+ win production for several years, with a linear (or maybe more likely) accelerating decline where he'd be worth much less than that. But the payments spread equally or even backloaded to take advantage of the time value of money.

I think that if you ever saw a top star, for some reason, take on a 1-year deal in his peak it would be for something like $7M per win or $40-50M.