Cost considered, who would you prefer to sign among Davis, Upton, Heyward, Cespedes or Gordon?

[clapdiddy]

Voted Gordon, but really I want our money going into the rotation/extensions for Machado and Schoop. I'm fine with a reclamation project like Austin Jackson in the outfield, especially if we bring Pearce back. Which we should.

He's another guy that fits into what I said above. Good catch. If he's willing to play LF, I'd be for him as well.

[Stotle]

Heyward

Co-signed.

[DrungoHazewood]

Heyward

Yep. I like the bonus/crackpot theory that when they shrink the strikezone he goes back to his age-20 Mickey Mantle career track.

[Can_of_corn]

Yep. I like the bonus/crackpot theory that when they shrink the strikezone he goes back to his age-20 Mickey Mantle career track.

Of course Britton would instantly become a DFA candidate.

[Babypowder]

There are people who really want to give Davis the deal he is going to get? 7 years, likely paying him to be worth 4 wins a year through age 37, when he has averaged 2 wins a year through 30? Look at similar TTO players and how they age. It isn't pretty. The contract he is going to get isn't even borderline lunacy to me, it's going to be 16 flavors of crazy.

[Redskins Rick]

There are people who really want to give Davis the deal he is going to get? 7 years, likely paying him to be worth 4 wins a year through age 37, when he has averaged 2 wins a year through 30? Look at similar TTO players and how they age. It isn't pretty. The contract he is going to get isn't even borderline lunacy to me, it's going to be 16 flavors of crazy.

Sure, the same posters that didn't want to pay Cruz for 4 years, yet, now they are crying we didn't keep him.

[jamalshw]

I would say Davis. The Orioles will NEED left-handed bats this offseason considering the remaining players that project to be starts: Jones, Machado, Schoop, Joseph, Hardy are all right-handed. Plus, if you add in the likes of Walker and/or Alvarez, that's just more righthanders. As a result, I'd say Davis or Gordon would be good plays. In fact, I won't mind getting both and forgoing any other non-rotation upgrade, but that's not likely so, I'll just say Davis.

[MachoMachadoMan]

It depends on direction. If this team is building for the future, Heyward. He makes a nice complement to Machado long term. His age makes a long contract more palatable.

If its all about 2016, Davis or Upton. I can live with a bad contract the last couple years if it means winning now.

Voted Heyward for the long term. Going into next season with Manny and Schoop at 24 with Heyward at 27 and Jones at 30, you could have a solid core going through their prime years until 2019 when Jones probably starts to slide. If those four are hitting somewhere 2-6 for you, that's a great start.

[DrungoHazewood]

There are people who really want to give Davis the deal he is going to get? 7 years, likely paying him to be worth 4 wins a year through age 37, when he has averaged 2 wins a year through 30? Look at similar TTO players and how they age. It isn't pretty. The contract he is going to get isn't even borderline lunacy to me, it's going to be 16 flavors of crazy.

There's the train of thought that you just don't give two flips about anything beyond a couple years out. Sign a guy to an insane contract, and you can always flip him to the Dodgers or the Yanks or something three years in at 25 cents on the dollar. I think that's nuts, but that seems to be a common sentiment.

[LookitsPuck]

Heyward. It all comes down to age and consistency. He just turned 26. He's been worth ~30 WAR over 6 seasons. 4 out of 6 years he was worth at least 5. The 2 seasons he wasn't, they were partial seasons (I think injury related). He shores up our outfield. Corner outfield has been a disaster (hell, look at Parra who has been pretty poor for us along with the half dozen+ cast of characters we've DFA'd).

[Can_of_corn]

Voted Heyward for the long term. Going into next season with Manny and Schoop at 24 with Heyward at 27 and Jones at 30, you could have a solid core going through their prime years until 2019 when Jones probably starts to slide. If those four are hitting somewhere 2-6 for you, that's a great start.

Heyward will be in his age 26 season next year.

[Stotle]

There's the train of thought that you just don't give two flips about anything beyond a couple years out. Sign a guy to an insane contract, and you can always flip him to the Dodgers or the Yanks or something three years in at 25 cents on the dollar. I think that's nuts, but that seems to be a common sentiment.

I don't think it's that black and white, but I subscribe to that theory as a general matter. But you have to pick your contracts very carefully and your process should obviously focus on minimizing dead money. For all the reasons you've eloquently laid out I would generally consider a long Davis deal as problematic. I'm much less concerned about Heyward. I thought Lester was a good deal. I have spent way too much time already explaining my thoughts on the Hamels contract (great get last offseason, losing value each day and turning to borderline in 2016 and a rapidly descending into good chance of being a burden thereafter -- so you needed to get the positive value early on to make it a no brainer in my opinion).

Teams really took projection systems seriously, and some spent a lot of time and money building theirs up. I think judicious use of those systems and having enough of an internal talent pipeline to keep options generally open should give a mid-market team room to carry as much as $25MM in dead money a year, but keep in mind that also includes the $4 MM reliever that flames out or the Markakis/Roberts homegrown player at the end of his extension. Having Machado, Jones, and Schoop should give Baltimore good flexibility to spend on an elite position player in FA if, and of course only if, they think there is an investment that is a good bet to be productive for 60% of the deal (I'm speaking in terms of probability, so hopefully you are getting some value throughout the life, the low end is injury early and little to no value later, and the high end is all-star performance for three years and "worth the money" performance the last two).

Anyway, yeah, I think there are opportunities to get quality producers, but you have to be able to sift through the bear traps and even then you go in knowing there is a chance you are going to be operating with your hands tied if things so south quickly.

[Stotle]

Heyward. It all comes down to age and consistency. He just turned 26. He's been worth ~30 WAR over 6 seasons. 4 out of 6 years he was worth at least 5. The 2 seasons he wasn't, they were partial seasons (I think injury related). He shores up our outfield. Corner outfield has been a disaster (hell, look at Parra who has been pretty poor for us along with the half dozen+ cast of characters we've DFA'd).

Heck, I'd even give him a competitive offer that included a player opt-out after 2019 to lock him in along with Jones and give him a chance to bolt if he wants at that point. My hope would be I've built a very good team by that point and can either give Jones's money to him in re-negotiating his deal or hope he's healthy and productive and wants out if the team needs financial flexibility as part of a rebuild/restructure at the MLB level.

[Creamsicle]

voted for the Devil You Know.

[clapdiddy]

Heck, I'd even give him a competitive offer that included a player opt-out after 2019 to lock him in along with Jones and give him a chance to bolt if he wants at that point. My hope would be I've built a very good team by that point and can either give Jones's money to him in re-negotiating his deal or hope he's healthy and productive and wants out if the team needs financial flexibility as part of a rebuild/restructure at the MLB level.

I'd lean more toward Heyward than anyone else on the list. A core of Jones, Machado, Schoop, and Heyward is nice to work around.