2015 Autopsy: Why did the Orioles miss the playoffs

[JLee2027]

When 3 of 5 starters have career worst years...this is the result, 81-81.

[El Gordo]

If the question is "What is the primary part of the team that regressed from 2014 to 2015" the answer is clearly the starting rotation.

But if the question is "What should the front office have done differently over the offseason to improve the team's chances of winning in 2015" the answer is that they should have gotten better players to replace Markakis and Cruz, because going into the offseason a reasonable person would have thought the starting pitching was solid while the offense as likely to suffer from the loss of Markakis and Cruz.

True but even if they had I doubt it would have made up for the crappy SP. They needed to add a TOR. But who knew that then?

[Frobby]

It's a combination of a lot of factors, but if I have to pick one, it's the starting pitching. Four of our six returning starters did significantly worse this year. The offense and defense bear some blame, too. The one group that deserves no blame at all is the bullpen. They were brilliant.

[mcgraw238]

Yes, he should have known the starting pitching would suck and replaced all of last year's starters except Chen. What a fool.

So you had the starting pitching pegged to repeat it's performance from last season where it posted a sub 3.00 ERA in the second half? I did not expect the starting pitching to be as bad as it was but a certain amount of regression seemed obvious and there were plenty of folks who thought some arbitration eligible assets could have been moved to free up some flexibility. Instead DD chose to ride out the arbitration timeline of the roster and replace the 3 major losses with cheap band-aids. The starting pitching ultimately failed miserably and the club put together an offense that was drastically inconsistent and far from playoff caliber. As bad as the starting pitching performed, DD targeted corner OF at the trade deadline though perhaps driven by supply and demand. The 2015 Orioles had many flaws beyond simply pointing to the starting pitching, though I admit that is a logical starting point.

[isestrex]

It's a combination of a lot of factors, but if I have to pick one, it's the starting pitching. Four of our six returning starters did significantly worse this year. The offense and defense bear some blame, too. The one group that deserves no blame at all is the bullpen. They were brilliant.

Picking nits here, but the defense wasn't really a problem either. They finished right in the middle of the league in most of the advanced stats, while finishing in the top 2 in the AL for fewest errors for the 3rd straight year. All this while missing 265 games from the middle of the defense (Jones, Hardy, Schoop, Wieters). I think the defense was more than adequate given the circumstances and why I didn't include it as an option.

[Nevermore]

Let me explain how I voted. I voted for the first choice, not resigning key FAs. I wasn't that concerned about signing Miller, as we already have a closer (Miller signed to become a closer, I believe). My main concern was not resigning Cruz. With Cruz, even our struggling rotation would have benefited from his power. Maybe he would have lost some in the latter years of his 4-year contract. On the other hand, Ortiz is doing fine in his late 30s (or early 40s, not sure which). But I believe that Cruz's offense would have given us a good chance to advance to the WS.

I do agree that Tillman, Gonzalez (who was injured during much of the year) and Bud Norris, who eventually had to be released, played a part in our failure to reach the Post Season. But it was the lack of Cruz which did us in.

[Frobby]

Picking nits here, but the defense wasn't really a problem either. They finished right in the middle of the league in most of the advanced stats, while finishing in the top 2 in the AL for fewest errors for the 3rd straight year. All this while missing 265 games from the middle of the defense (Jones, Hardy, Schoop, Wieters). I think the defense was more than adequate given the circumstances and why I didn't include it as an option.

Fangraphs had our defense at +42 runs last year, -5 this year. Yes, some of it was injuries, but we have injuries every year, such as Manny missing half the season in 2014. Those stats suggest we were worse at 7 of the 8 positions (3B the prefictable exception).

[mdbdotcom]

Let me explain how I voted. I voted for the first choice, not resigning key FAs. I wasn't that concerned about signing Miller, as we already have a closer (Miller signed to become a closer, I believe). My main concern was not resigning Cruz. With Cruz, even our struggling rotation would have benefited from his power. Maybe he would have lost some in the latter years of his 4-year contract. On the other hand, Ortiz is doing fine in his late 30s (or early 40s, not sure which). But I believe that Cruz's offense would have given us a good chance to advance to the WS.

I do agree that Tillman, Gonzalez (who was injured during much of the year) and Bud Norris, who eventually had to be released, played a part in our failure to reach the Post Season. But it was the lack of Cruz which did us in.

Where the Orioles ranked in the American League

Runs Scored

2014 - 6

2015 - 7

Fielding %

2014 - 3

2015 - 1

ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 9

Starter ERA

2014 - 5

2015 - 14

Reliever ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 3

How much clearer does this need to be?

[FanSince88]

I find myself wondering if the O's would have made the playoffs if Bud Norris had not pitched a single inning this year.

I felt the same way about Arrieta in 2013.

[waroriole]

A lot of those things. Primarily the SP, though.

[clapdiddy]

Where the Orioles ranked in the American League

Runs Scored

2014 - 6

2015 - 7

Fielding %

2014 - 3

2015 - 1

ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 9

Starter ERA

2014 - 5

2015 - 14

Reliever ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 3

How much clearer does this need to be?

Yup. One of these things is not like the others.

[weams]

I felt the same way about Arrieta in 2013.

Me too. I though he was the sole reason we lost out.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So if we go by the results of this poll, most people think if the SP was to have pitched as good as 2014, then we would be in the playoffs. Does that also mean that Dan would not seem as much of an idiot as he is perceived to be now?

[Frobby]

Where the Orioles ranked in the American League

Runs Scored

2014 - 6

2015 - 7

Fielding %

2014 - 3

2015 - 1

ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 9

Starter ERA

2014 - 5

2015 - 14

Reliever ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 3

How much clearer does this need to be?

Fielding percentage was better, but advanced metrics say the defense was significantly worse. Fangraphs defense says we were 2nd last year

and 8th this year, going from +42 to -5. That's almost half of the 100 extra runs we gave up as a team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Where the Orioles ranked in the American League

Runs Scored

2014 - 6

2015 - 7

Fielding %

2014 - 3

2015 - 1

ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 9

Starter ERA

2014 - 5

2015 - 14

Reliever ERA

2014 - 3

2015 - 3

How much clearer does this need to be?

Fielding percentage doesn't tell the story. By metrics that matter the defense regressed this year. Part of the problem (although certainly not all) with the starting pitching was the worse defensive support. The numbers Frobby quoted suggest the defense was 4-5 wins worse than last year, which is about what it would have taken to get them to the playoffs. And, yes, my least favorite thing from every telecast is the announcer who says the O's were "first in defense", implying that fielding percentage = defense. Which would last have been excusable circa 1977.