O's Must Resign Davis

[mcgraw238]

Right. We have three guys who can hit 30 HR or more. We need at least 3 guys who can get on base in front of them. Then we have a much more balanced offense than we have now.

That's a good start. Then the starting pitching needs to be addressed and it sounds like we are on the verge of yet another pitching coach.

[Nevermore]

Your pretty spot on about the impact of boycotts and bidding. Heck, PA demonstrated during the dark years that he's immune to that stuff. All we can do is make our own decisions on how to allocate our resources and I can say that I'm seriously evaluating whether to re-commit several thousand dollars of my assets to an Orioles ticket plan after watching the debacle last offseason and my expectations for this coming offseason. I'll still watch the games but will likely spend my money elsewhere and I'll feel a little less entitled.

I just thought of something, reading your post. If PA can absorb losing fans like you (and I) -- and our revenue -- who decided to spend our money elsewhere, then PA can absorb the cost of signing decent FA players according to market value. Not only does CD have choices, so does PA.

[mdbdotcom]

The Orioles have been to the playoffs two times in the last four years. In two of those four years, Chris Davis led the league in home runs. Those were the two years when the Orioles did not make the playoffs. Such is the impact of one player on the team.

If Chris is willing to look past the money some lunatic GM is likely to give him and re-sign with the O's at a price they can afford, I'm all for it. I'd even be happy with a slight overpay. But, outbidding everyone else would be lunacy.

[waroriole]

There is a huge difference between a "fair weather fan" and a fan who grows tired of 14 straight years of FO incompetence and/or greed, that brings continually losing teams to O's fans. It has already happened once, I don't want it to happen again. During my years as an O's and Ravens fan, I have supported my teams even when they were losing. But I won't support a team's management that is similar to what O's management was during those 14 straight years of losing. Perhaps it's a sort of "tough love" where some fans refuse to enable an organization's poor management.

How do you support the team, but not its management?

[weams]

Wait...

You mean Nestor's big walkout a few years ago *didn't* work?!?

Who's Nestor?

[24fps]

Exactly. The fans who ended up not coming back were slowing getting exhausted from all of the losing. I'm not saying that fans are planning to organize a mass boycott. I doubt that this will happen. But if the FO continually fails in building teams with at least a chance of winning, individual fans will decide, each on their own, to spend their sports/entertainment dollars elsewhere. And that would be just as tragic as any sort of mass, organized boycott.

IMO the reason that the O's decline in attendance from 1998 to 2011 was so measured was that there was the attempt (however inept) to field a competitive team every year until 2008 when AM openly began to rebuild. Even then the decline was less that one would expect from an angry reflexive fan base especially when you factor in some fractional defection to the Nationals. When the team started winning again, the reverse looks to be happening at roughly the same pace. I haven't taken the time to look at other franchises, Pittsburgh for example, to see if there are similarities but it is clear to me that affection/disaffection among the Orioles fan base is best described as a tidal phenomenon rather than a binary one. I wouldn't put too much stock in the threats you are hearing.

[Ruzious]

I will understand them not signing him as long as they end up signing a couple of very good free agent OFers and appear to have a plan that involves having a winner here. It's going to cost a ton more money to sign Davis than it would have to sign Cruz - so it's a different situation.

[Dark Helmet]

The Orioles have been to the playoffs two times in the last four years. In two of those four years, Chris Davis led the league in home runs. Those were the two years when the Orioles did not make the playoffs. Such is the impact of one player on the team.

If Chris is willing to look past the money some lunatic GM is likely to give him and re-sign with the O's at a price they can afford, I'm all for it. I'd even be happy with a slight overpay. But, outbidding everyone else would be lunacy.

And the two years they made the playoffs, Manny played a combined 133 games. His best two seasons as a pro, we missed the playoffs. His best season, they are a .500 team. I guess giving him the rediculous contract it will take to keep him is lunacy also?

[DrungoHazewood]

And the two years they made the playoffs, Manny played a combined 133 games. His best two seasons as a pro, we missed the playoffs. His best season, they are a .500 team. I guess giving him the rediculous contract it will take to keep him is lunacy also?

You're well aware of the differences in signing a 23-year-old superstar to an extension, and signing a guy on the expectation that he'll be much more valuable in his decline years than he has been in what should be his peak.

[mdbdotcom]

And the two years they made the playoffs, Manny played a combined 133 games. His best two seasons as a pro, we missed the playoffs. His best season, they are a .500 team. I guess giving him the rediculous contract it will take to keep him is lunacy also?

Just another sign that no one player makes a team.

[mdbdotcom]

Just another sign that no one player makes a team.

And I would like to lock up Manny for his arb years and three years beyond. Offering him a Stanton type contract would be nuts.

[DrungoHazewood]

If our payroll is $120 and you give him $25, you're saying CD is going to give us 1/5 of the offense. Look at the second half: 26 of 105 home runs. 61 of 293 RBIs. He is more than carrying this team. Obviously there are others helping but you do not want to lose 1/5 of your offense and tell your fan base you couldn't keep the favorite because he cost what he was worth. Nobody would criticize Angelis for 7/175.

No, you're not saying that at all. First off, the payroll pays for offense, defense, and pitching, not just offense. Secondly, you expect much of the production on the team to cost very little, because you have to get a lot of production out of pre-arb and pre-free agency players or the math just doesn't work. Because of the stark differences in the pay scale because of arb and free agency you can't equate percentage of payroll to percentage of production. You need something like 50-55 WAR to get to the playoffs, but you don't approach that saying 10 WAR should cost 20% of the payroll.

[waroriole]

And I would like to lock up Manny for his arb years and three years beyond. Offering him a Stanton type contract would be nuts.

I doubt he's signing anything for only 6 years. He won't cost as much as Stanton, but it will be close.

[Dark Helmet]

You're well aware of the differences in signing a 23-year-old superstar to an extension, and signing a guy on the expectation that he'll be much more valuable in his decline years than he has been in what should be his peak.

Money is still money. If the Orioles have such a limited budget, as those smarter than me claim. How is giving a huge contract to a 23 year old any different then giving it to Davis. Your still allocating a large percentage of your payroll to one player and hindering your ability to sign others. Superstar or not, Manny isn't winning a championship by himself. Hence my point. Losing Davis will hurt the rest of the team.

[mdbdotcom]

Money is still money. If the Orioles have such a limited budget, as those smarter than me claim. How is giving a huge contract to a 23 year old any different then giving it to Davis. Your still allocating a large percentage of your payroll to one player and hindering your ability to sign others. Superstar or not, Manny isn't winning a championship by himself. Hence my point. Losing Davis will hurt the rest of the team.

If you sign Manny to a six or seven year deal, the first three years reflect that he would not be a free agent yet, so the deal doesn't hit peak cost until year four, by which time the team's revenue should be higher.