Offseason Rumors and Deals Around MLB

[Pickles]

I think you're off by a factor of two. By bb-ref numbers Heyward is +21 per 150 games. Markakis is +0, or exactly average over his whole career.

And an average single is worth a little less than .5 runs. So Heyward is saving one single every three games that Markakis wouldn't get to. Still mind-boggling?

First, I'm not sure what bb-ref #s you're looking at, and I might be wrong here, but the one's I'm look at show Markakis as negative 6 wins for his career. And in the last 7 years him averaging over a win below replacement. Am I wrong? I might be, but I think I'm reading it correctly.

Secondly, the best I can tell from online search results is that a double is worth like .67 runs expected in the current environment. I can't find anything that shows a double in it's platonic sense, but only w how many outs are already recorded in the inning. W 2 outs, it's like .33; with 1 out it's like .67, and w 0 outs it's like 1.1. Assuming all ABs take place randomly regarding how man outs have been recorded- and I'm not sure that's a safe assumption, you''re looking at like .67 runs per double.

So my original estimate was low. However, obviously, the balls that Heyward gets to that Markakis doesn't aren't all doubles. In fact a significant portion I would imagine.

My beef might be with, and in fact long has been, the idea that Markakis is a poor RFer.

[DrungoHazewood]

First, I'm not sure what bb-ref #s you're looking at, and I might be wrong here, but the one's I'm look at show Markakis as negative 6 wins for his career. And in the last 7 years him averaging over a win below replacement. Am I wrong? I might be, but I think I'm reading it correctly.

Secondly, the best I can tell from online search results is that a double is worth like .67 runs expected in the current environment. I can't find anything that shows a double in it's platonic sense, but only w how many outs are already recorded in the inning. W 2 outs, it's like .33; with 1 out it's like .67, and w 0 outs it's like 1.1. Assuming all ABs take place randomly regarding how man outs have been recorded- and I'm not sure that's a safe assumption, you''re looking at like .67 runs per double.

So my original estimate was low. However, obviously, the balls that Heyward gets to that Markakis doesn't aren't all doubles. In fact a significant portion I would imagine.

My beef might be with, and in fact long has been, the idea that Markakis is a poor RFer.

bb-ref needs to stop presenting dWAR and oWAR, since it confuses much more than anything else. There's no such thing as "replacement level offense" or "replacement level defense", it's interactive, it's dependent on one another, and you can't add it up. You can add up the components and get wins or runs above/below replacement for the player in the context of his defensive position.

Nick is listed at -6 wins over his career in (defensive performance + positional adjustment for being a RFer 95% of the time). A flat-average defensive RF will always be -6 wins in the amount of playing time he's gotten compared to an average player at an average position.

[DrungoHazewood]

Also, linear weights values by run context:

[Pickles]

bb-ref needs to stop presenting dWAR and oWAR, since it confuses much more than anything else. There's no such thing as "replacement level offense" or "replacement level defense", it's interactive, it's dependent on one another, and you can't add it up. You can add up the components and get wins or runs above/below replacement for the player in the context of his defensive position.

Nick is listed at -6 wins over his career in (defensive performance + positional adjustment for being a RFer 95% of the time). A flat-average defensive RF will always be -6 wins in the amount of playing time he's gotten compared to an average player at an average position.

Well, I'd agree but that's another conversation.

But here we're comparing two RFers. So we should be able to compare their stats fairly straight forward.

[Pickles]

Also, linear weights values by run context:

So .67 for a double isn't far off?

[El Gordo]

Nick did decidedly better in ATL last year. +7 to -11 in OPACY. Might just be something to those mysterious park effects.

[Pickles]

Nick did decidedly better in ATL last year. +7 to -11 in OPACY. Might just be something to those mysterious park effects.

But again, overall, according to bbref, he was negative 1.5 WAR.

So still a very poor, poor RF.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nick did decidedly better in ATL last year. +7 to -11 in OPACY. Might just be something to those mysterious park effects.

Where are you getting that? By UZR/150 he was at -3.4, down from +5.8 in 2014. By bb-ref numbers he was a -6 RFer, compared to 0 in 2014.

But again, overall, according to bbref, he was negative 1.5 WAR.

So still a very poor, poor RF.

By UZR/150, among 18 qualifiers in RF, he was 12th. I'd say he was a bit below average. Matt Kemp... that's very poor, he was almost 15 runs/150 worse than Markakis.

[El Gordo]

Where are you getting that? By UZR/150 he was at -3.4, down from +5.8 in 2014. By bb-ref numbers he was a -6 RFer, compared to 0 in 2014.

By UZR/150, among 18 qualifiers in RF, he was 12th. I'd say he was a bit below average. Matt Kemp... that's very poor, he was almost 15 runs/150 worse than Markakis.

Fielding Bible plus /minus via Bill James Site. Funny DRS at the same site has him at -6. Go figure.

[Horsepower]

Some of you guys with your graphs and sabermetrics need to get out of your basement and watch a few games. It is not being said that Nick is a better defensive RF than Heyward. But he is a gold glove winner and a good RF, stop bashing Markakis.

[Crazysilver03]

Astros acquired RHP Ken Giles and INF Jonathan Arauz from the Astros for RHPs Mark Appel, Vince Velasquez, Thomas Eshelman, Harold Arauz and LHP Brett Oberholtzer.

Well that deal got even better for Philadelphia. Wonder why Fisher was taken out and Appel added.

[Can_of_corn]

Well that deal got even better for Philadelphia. Wonder why Fisher was taken out and Appel added.

Problem with the physical?

[Pickles]

Where are you getting that? By UZR/150 he was at -3.4, down from +5.8 in 2014. By bb-ref numbers he was a -6 RFer, compared to 0 in 2014.

By UZR/150, among 18 qualifiers in RF, he was 12th. I'd say he was a bit below average. Matt Kemp... that's very poor, he was almost 15 runs/150 worse than Markakis.

Do you think it's reasonable to say that Heyward records a PO every other game than Markakis?

[Crazysilver03]

Problem with the physical?

I am impressed with AM. The Phillies rotation could be 4 new additions and Nola. Dont have to worry about seeing Ascher or Buchanan in the rotation.

[Pickles]

I am impressed with AM. The Phillies rotation could be 4 new additions and Nola. Dont have to worry about seeing Ascher or Buchanan in the rotation.

Why wouldn't you be?

He was the one who built the team that competed here for the last four years.