Assuming a relatively flat budget, do the O's have a realistic chance to contend in 2016?

[Can_of_corn]

Hardy is a 10 and 5 guy and can't be traded without consent. I am sure there is some market for Gonzalez. We were able to trade Rodrigo Lopez following back-to-back seasons where he posted ERAs of 4.90 and 5.90. But I don't advocate trading him.

Not only that but his option vests if traded.

[weams]

Hardy is a 10 and 5 guy and can't be traded without consent. I am sure there is some market for Gonzalez. We were able to trade Rodrigo Lopez following back-to-back seasons where he posted ERAs of 4.90 and 5.90. But I don't advocate trading him.

Was he going to make 5 million?

[weams]

We have a good enough core that I think we could with some good moves be competitive again in 2017 or 2018. No need to trade Manny or AJ now. If anything, extending Manny would be consistent with building for the future (but more difficult if we are signing free agents to compete now). I don't think it has to be black and white, one extreme or the other.

That said, I am listening to offers for Britton, Tillman, Gonzo, and Jones, willing to part with any of them for a good return. I am absolutely not trading prospects to try and plug one of our holes with a 1 WAR guy.

Manny too. You have to trade him next year anyway if you are not good. It is not like folks think. That a year off and then back in the saddle. Keep it going or go California on it.

[Aristotelian]

Manny too. You have to trade him next year anyway if you are not good. It is not like folks think. That a year off and then back in the saddle. Keep it going or go California on it.

I am holding Manny with the intention of extending him. If it doesn't work out, I will start thinking about trading him in 2018. He would still get a huge return then.

[tntoriole]

This is the $120 mm question.

My assumption is that the 2016 budget will be no more than $10 mm more or less than last year's, in the range of $105-125 mm. It could be on the low end of that based on lower attendance in 2015 and no playoff revenue. Or, it could be higher based on general industry trends. I tend to think it will be on the higher end of the range based on DD's statements that he has some payroll flexibility, but in any event, I don't think the budget is outside that range in either direction.

At that budget, we certainly cannot re-sign all of Davis, Chen and O'Day, or sign three equivalent free agents. Perhaps we could sign two, but one would probably be something of a downgrade from the player he is replacing. Those three players cost $21 mm last year, and will cost something in the ballpark of $42-50 mm per season going forward.

So my question is, what are the odds that we can put together a contending team on a relatively flat budget? (Notice I said "contending," not "competitive.") If the answer is that the odds are very low, then we should be selling and rebuilding now. But if the odds are reasonable, then it makes more sense to go for it.

A pessimist would say, (1) last year's team only won 81 games, and had to win the last five in a row against teams that had already clinched playoff spots and were resting a lot of regulars, and (2) we will have less talent on paper than we did last year, so contending is a real long shot in 2016. An optimist would say, there were a number of things that went wrong in 2015, and if several of those things go right in 2016, there is no reason we can't contend in 2016 so long as we make good decisions this winter.

For me, I think our odds of contending are between 20-40% next season. While it's a tough call, at those odds I favor trying to contend and building around the core that is here. However, if we are not in serious contention at the all-star break, I will be in favor of restructuring the team, and probably will be kicking myself for not wanting to do it this winter.

What say you?

6 games behind the Yankees this year with the 81 wins. Can the team that is put out there next year win with that budget? Sure. But it would be nice to have some more horses. Too many variables. Can JJ Hardy get healthier and contribute anything offensively? Can Matt go ballistic in his showcase year? Can Kevin figure it out and become a horse? Can Manny have an even bigger year? All these things and plenty of unforseseen negative things as well could happen. Or not.

[weams]

I am holding Manny with the intention of extending him. If it doesn't work out, I will start thinking about trading him in 2018. He would still get a huge return then.

No need to waste a year of Manny on a team that you are rebuilding. That would be the foolish part. If you do extend Manny, it will be for full value. Just buy him back as a free agent!

[Can_of_corn]

No need to waste a year of Manny on a team that you are rebuilding. That would be the foolish part. If you do extend Manny, it will be for full value. Just buy him back as a free agent!

But then they will lose a pick!

[weams]

But then they will lose a pick!

Well, we can just move on then.

[Frobby]

Was he going to make 5 million?

Close enough. Rodrigo made $3.75 mm in his last year with us (he lost an arbitration case with us) and then after we traded him the Rockies settled with him for $4.375 mm that winter (before the 2007 season). When you consider salary inflation over the last 9 years, I'm sure that $4.375 mm then was a bigger nut than $5 mm is today.

[Aristotelian]

No need to waste a year of Manny on a team that you are rebuilding. That would be the foolish part. If you do extend Manny, it will be for full value. Just buy him back as a free agent!

I would like to extend Manny for a reasonable discount in exchange for guaranteed money. Given he has made a grand total of $1.5M so far in his career, I think there is a reasonable chance he would say yes.

I am not trying to be hyperbolic here. I don't know why you are forcing me into the extreme. My position at this point is I am not doing anything to compete in 2016 if that undermines our long term strategy, and I am listening to trade offers if the return is good.

If there is a way to compete in 2016, what is the plan for spending the $20M or so that we have left that gets us there? I could see doing it by trading some combination of Gausman, Schoop, Harvey, and Mancini, but nobody is arguing that any more than I am trading Machado.

[neveradoubt]

If our budget is flat, I'd say it's time to rebuild the farm system and look to 2017 and beyond.

The ALE Phillies 2017? More like 2019

[weams]

Close enough. Rodrigo made $3.75 mm in his last year with us (he lost an arbitration case with us) and then after we traded him the Rockies settled with him for $4.375 mm that winter (before the 2007 season). When you consider salary inflation over the last 9 years, I'm sure that $4.375 mm then was a bigger nut than $5 mm is today.

Well then Gonzalez will bring something back. If we don't non-tender.

[Frobby]

Well then Gonzalez will bring something back. If we don't non-tender

We'd be crazy to non-tender. I can't believe you are even suggesting that possibility.

[Number5]

Contend? Yes, yes, we can contend.

[video=youtube;IGfzWwT-35M]

[El Gordo]

Our farm system is depleted enough as it is. We should not be trading anything of value to chase a dream of competing in 2016. The Parra trade was bad enough. If we make a trade, it should be Britton for MLB-ready prospects who can help us in '17 and beyond.

I don't see how we sign a mid-rotation SP and COF under a level budget with Wieters already on the books. If we do, you are talking about third tier guys, maybe Happ and Mourneau type guys. These are not people who can replace the production of Davis and Chen.

Even then, everything has to go right...and it still may not be enough.

No that hard. Sign Leake to a back loaded contract so you are only paying him 12 M this year. Sign Span for 8M, non tender Matusz and sign Kim. In addition you could trade Britton for another bat. That's the 22M to take us to 120M

Span RF

Manny 3B

Kim LF

Jones CF

Wieters C

Schoop 2B

Paredes/Tolleson DH

Mancini/Choi 1B

Hardy SS

Leake

Tillman

Gausman

Ubaldo

Gonzo