Assuming a relatively flat budget, do the O's have a realistic chance to contend in 2016?

[El Gordo]

I don't understand this comment. If you feel you already know that they won't contend, then why would you say that they could contend? I think what you are saying is that they have a puncher's chance, but that the odds are very long. But I'm not sure if that's what you mean.

I took it to mean that if we were smart we could do enough to contend for a WC, but we aren't smart enough, so we wont.

[Frobby]

If everything goes right, we could contend.

I don't think it takes "everything" going right. But here is a laundry list I came up with the other day:

- Does Gausman begin to take steps towards being a TOR starter?

- Is Bundy able to stay healthy and progress to the point where he can compete for the rotation in 2017?

- Can Tillman and Gonzalez have the kind of success that they had in 2012-14, or is 2015 the new normal for them?

- Can Hunter Harvey stay healthy and get to a point where he might make a contribution sometime in 2017?

- Can J.J. Hardy bounce back offensively and not lose anything much on defense?

- Will Jonathan Schoop continue to make progress offensively, and have a defensive season more akin to 2014 than 2015?

- Can Trey Mancini continue to hit at the AAA level and make himself a likely Oriole contributor for 2017?

- Will we get anything out of Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright in 2016 and beyond?

- Can Mychal Givens handle being an 8th inning guy on a regular basis?

- Can we get better production in the corner OF spots than we had in 2015?

- Can we find a competent replacement for Chris Davis?

Lots of questions here. I don't think we need to bat 1.000 on these issues to contend in 2016. But we need to hit better than .500, I'd say. Especially on the starting pitching questions.

[El Gordo]

I don't think it takes "everything" going right. But here is a laundry list I came up with the other day:

One question you missed. Can we find a replacement for Chen's production in the rotation?

[mdbdotcom]

I don't think it takes "everything" going right. But here is a laundry list I came up with the other day:

That's close enough to everything for me if you add: Can all our core players stay healthy for the first time in three years.

[Frobby]

That's close enough to everything for me if you add: Can all our core players stay healthy for the first time in three years.

The answer to this question is almost always no, for every team. But somehow we won 96 games in 2014 despite a number of key injuries. We can't afford bad luck with injuries, but I don't think that means we need to have a complete clean bill of health.

[El Gordo]

Gausman, Manny, and Schoop, step forward. Hardy, Gonzo and Tillman, bounce back. One of COF, DH, 1B is filled adequately from in house. We sign a mid rotation SP who gives us 200 IP. We sign or trade for a COF type with good D and high OBP. Givens takes over the 8th inning. That could get us the WC.

[mdbdotcom]

The answer to this question is almost always no, for every team. But somehow we won 96 games in 2014 despite a number of key injuries. We can't afford bad luck with injuries, but I don't think that means we need to have a complete clean bill of health.

Okay, amend my question to, Can Jones and Schoop stay injury free? We have to keep defense strong up the middle. If Hardy is hurt, Manny can move over. But Jones and Schoop must stay on th e field.

[Crazysilver03]

If our budget is flat, I'd say it's time to rebuild the farm system and look to 2017 and beyond.

We dont exactly have many assets in high demand. And Angelos has never shown a willingness to completely tear down a team.

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[Aristotelian]

Gausman, Manny, and Schoop, step forward. Hardy, Gonzo and Tillman, bounce back. One of COF, DH, 1B is filled adequately from in house. We sign a mid rotation SP who gives us 200 IP. We sign or trade for a COF type with good D and high OBP. Givens takes over the 8th inning. That could get us the WC.

Our farm system is depleted enough as it is. We should not be trading anything of value to chase a dream of competing in 2016. The Parra trade was bad enough. If we make a trade, it should be Britton for MLB-ready prospects who can help us in '17 and beyond.

I don't see how we sign a mid-rotation SP and COF under a level budget with Wieters already on the books. If we do, you are talking about third tier guys, maybe Happ and Mourneau type guys. These are not people who can replace the production of Davis and Chen.

Even then, everything has to go right...and it still may not be enough.

[oriole]

Two of my favorite things about baseball completely contradict each other. I like that you can project performance based on such a large network of statistics and expert analysis and also the influence of the outlier. Miguel Gonzalez, Steve Pearce, Nate McLouth, even Chris Davis can be put under that category when you consider the distance between early expectations and actual performance. My point is you don't know who put of Wright, Wilson, Givens, Alvarez, Mancini, etc can come forward and be a linchpin on an otherwise static roster to push a team into winning games.

Consider if we get a couple players that can garner MVP votes, a come back season of Wieters and/or Hardy, some real steps forward from our pitching prospects (including Gausman), maybe a surprise performance from an unexpected source like Reimold or Jimenez, maybe a good veteran signing or two. I just don't see how one can conclude that contention is not achievable. That's a sour attitude and you may as well just watch some bad sitcom reruns instead of the games if you're going to sit on the couch with an innate expectation to see something you don't want to see.

[Aristotelian]

Two of my favorite things about baseball completely contradict each other. I like that you can project performance based on such a large network of statistics and expert analysis and also the influence of the outlier. Miguel Gonzalez, Steve Pearce, Nate McLouth, even Chris Davis can be put under that category when you consider the distance between early expectations and actual performance. My point is you don't know who put of Wright, Wilson, Givens, Alvarez, Mancini, etc can come forward and be a linchpin on an otherwise static roster to push a team into winning games.

Consider if we get a couple players that can garner MVP votes, a come back season of Wieters and/or Hardy, some real steps forward from our pitching prospects (including Gausman), maybe a surprise performance from an unexpected source like Reimold or Jimenez, maybe a good veteran signing or two. I just don't see how one can conclude that contention is not achievable. That's a sour attitude and you may as well just watch some bad sitcom reruns instead of the games if you're going to sit on the couch with an innate expectation to see something you don't want to see.

It's not a question of attitude. It's a strategic question of how do you get the team competitive as soon as possible. In my opinion, trading prospects to compete in 2016, as someone just proposed, would be a massive mistake. Signing someone like Happ might be a good move to compete in 2016, but what if he just gets in the way of Wright, Wilson, Gunkel, or Miranda? How will we know what we have in those guys if our roster is filled with third tier free agents?

[weams]

No. And we certainly should be selling and rebuilding now. That does not mean fire sale, it means being smart and trading the assets we can that are getting costly and could bring back a nice package of young players. Britton, Hardy and Gonzo should be shopped. Not dumped, but shopped. CD, Chen, Pierce, Parra and O'day should all go away in Free Agency. If we want to spend some money, go hard after the young and super talented Heyward. We cannot and should not throw money at Starting pitching. We need to re set, get younger and more athletic. I am all on board waiting for the reality to set in....We missed our opportunity last year, and its time to build back up.

No one wants Gonzalez or Hardy.

[weams]

Our farm system is depleted enough as it is. We should not be trading anything of value to chase a dream of competing in 2016. The Parra trade was bad enough. If we make a trade, it should be Britton for MLB-ready prospects who can help us in '17 and beyond.

I don't see how we sign a mid-rotation SP and COF under a level budget with Wieters already on the books. If we do, you are talking about third tier guys, maybe Happ and Mourneau type guys. These are not people who can replace the production of Davis and Chen.

Even then, everything has to go right...and it still may not be enough.

We don't have Manny and Adam much longer. If you think your plan is right, then trade everyone and go with Matt and the 500k K kids in 2016.

[Aristotelian]

We don't have Manny and Adam much longer. If you think your plan is right, then trade everyone and go with Matt and the 500k K kids in 2016.

We have a good enough core that I think we could with some good moves be competitive again in 2017 or 2018. No need to trade Manny or AJ now. If anything, extending Manny would be consistent with building for the future (but more difficult if we are signing free agents to compete now). I don't think it has to be black and white, one extreme or the other.

That said, I am listening to offers for Britton, Tillman, Gonzo, and Jones, willing to part with any of them for a good return. I am absolutely not trading prospects to try and plug one of our holes with a 1 WAR guy.

[Frobby]

No one wants Gonzalez or Hardy.

Hardy is a 10 and 5 guy and can't be traded without consent. I am sure there is some market for Gonzalez. We were able to trade Rodrigo Lopez following back-to-back seasons where he posted ERAs of 4.90 and 5.90. But I don't advocate trading him.