Why the O's will be better in 2016

[Frobby]

I think most of Gonzo's problems were injury-related. I'm actually not too worried about him. I'm more worried about Tillman, who just reminds me of Ubaldo at this point. If his mechanics are good that day, he'll be good. Otherwise, he'll be tossing 89 mph heaters that drift up and out over the zone, or out of the zone altogether. [/quoteS]

I think Tillman's problems in 2015 were conditioning-related. He previously had been a guy who pitched better as the game went along, whereas last year he often had trouble in the middle innings. I hope he's addressing this issue this winter.

[Phantom]

I think most of Gonzo's problems were injury-related. I'm actually not too worried about him. I'm more worried about Tillman, who just reminds me of Ubaldo at this point. If his mechanics are good that day, he'll be good. Otherwise, he'll be tossing 89 mph heaters that drift up and out over the zone, or out of the zone altogether.

If this is true, why was his second half FiP better than his first half?

[Phantom]

Gonzo, that is. Apologies for the double post.

[Frobby]

If this is true, why was his second half FiP better than his first half?

Because FIP is a flawed construct that is highly overrated? It doesn't know the difference between a screaming line drive and a weak ground ball. I don't know how anyone watching the games in 2015 could doubt that Gonzalez was sharper before his June groin injury than he was afterwards.

[Phantom]

Because FIP is a flawed construct that is highly overrated? It doesn't know the difference between a screaming line drive and a weak ground ball. I don't know how anyone watching the games in 2015 could doubt that Gonzalez was sharper before his June groin injury than he was afterwards.

Sure FIP is flawed, like all stats. But the alternative you offer is the most flawed system of all (the eye test).

So, would it suprise your eyes to know that his LD% was lower in the second half of the year?

[Frobby]

Sure FIP is flawed, like all stats. But the alternative you offer is the most flawed system of all (the eye test).

So, would it suprise your eyes to know that his LD% was lower in the second half of the year?

It would surprise me somewhat. But my breakdown was pre-groin injury and post, not 1st half/2nd half. Gonzo had four starts after his groin injury that were prior to the all-star break, in which he posted a 7.52 ERA.

Anyway, I'm talking more about the way he was pitching after the groin injury, not just the results. His command just didn't seem as good.

[wildcard]

I think most of Gonzo's problems were injury-related. I'm actually not too worried about him. I'm more worried about Tillman, who just reminds me of Ubaldo at this point. If his mechanics are good that day, he'll be good. Otherwise, he'll be tossing 89 mph heaters that drift up and out over the zone, or out of the zone altogether. [/quoteS]

I think Tillman's problems in 2015 were conditioning-related. He previously had been a guy who pitched better as the game went along, whereas last year he often had trouble in the middle innings. I hope he's addressing this issue this winter.

I have to think that Tillman is working his butt off this offseason. He knows it will cost him a lot of money if he has two bad years in a rowl

[wildcard]

i like signing Pedro Alvarez because then the O's have added a lefthanded power bat. He can be the O's DH.

If they don't sign Pedro and they miss on Davis then the lineup basically has lefty Kim and switch hitting Wieters. Flaherty as a UIF. Everyone else is righthanded. That is not good balance.

I doubt that Paredes or Urrutia makes the team.

[MDtransplant757]

I hope they will be better. I think the next few years we shall see if they can be just as good as the 1996-1997 teams or the teams from back in the late 60's to the 80's

[TouchemAll]

I don't see how they could trust Nolan to stay healthy enough

to want to use him for RF. As for 1st I would play Trumbo

there. If Peter would use the 150 million ear marked for CD

to help the team. They'd be better off. Be a better team. IMO

YUP :agree:

[Phantom]

It would surprise me somewhat. But my breakdown was pre-groin injury and post, not 1st half/2nd half. Gonzo had four starts after his groin injury that were prior to the all-star break, in which he posted a 7.52 ERA.

Anyway, I'm talking more about the way he was pitching after the groin injury, not just the results. His command just didn't seem as good.

Talking about "the way he was pitching" but not results seems silly. If it wasn't affecting his results then we should expect exactly the same pitcher next year, right? If the reason he had a bad 2015 was injury, shouldn't that be written all over the results?

He got injured in early June, so I was using half season splits, but you were worried about his command. Here are his monthly splits:

2015 Mar/Apr IP: 23.2 BB% 11.0

2015 May IP: 38.1 BB% 7.1

2015 Jun IP: 20.1 BB% 5.8

2015 Jul IP: 27.0 BB% 5.2

2015 Aug IP: 31.2 BB% 10.3

So his line drive percentage didn't go up after his groin injury. And his walk rate didn't go up after his groin injury. His velocity was the same after his groin injury. Oh, and his xFIP was exactly in line with his career numbers. Tell me again why we would believe that 2015 was anything outside the norm for Miguel Gonzalez?

This seems like a classic fan trap to fall into. We have a groin injury followed by a rise in ERA, so we all want to believe that this is causation and not a case of a pitchers lack of stuff catching up with him.

[Frobby]

Talking about "the way he was pitching" but not results seems silly. If it wasn't affecting his results then we should expect exactly the same pitcher next year, right? If the reason he had a bad 2015 was injury, shouldn't that be written all over the results?

He got injured in early June, so I was using half season splits, but you were worried about his command. Here are his monthly splits:

2015 Mar/Apr IP: 23.2 BB% 11.0

2015 May IP: 38.1 BB% 7.1

2015 Jun IP: 20.1 BB% 5.8

2015 Jul IP: 27.0 BB% 5.2

2015 Aug IP: 31.2 BB% 10.3

So his line drive percentage didn't go up after his groin injury. And his walk rate didn't go up after his groin injury. His velocity was the same after his groin injury. Oh, and his xFIP was exactly in line with his career numbers. Tell me again why we would believe that 2015 was anything outside the norm for Miguel Gonzalez?

This seems like a classic fan trap to fall into. We have a groin injury followed by a rise in ERA, so we all want to believe that this is causation and not a case of a pitchers lack of stuff catching up with him.

You make a compelling case. I can't prove my case with stats, so you have every right to be skeptical of what I'm saying. Still, I can't shake the feeling that Gonzalez's stuff just wasn't as sharp following the groin injury as it had been in 2012, 2013, 2014 and the first half of 2015. I guess we'll see what happens in 2016.

[Il BuonO]

1- Manny has peaked and his lapses of concentration in the field become more common.

2- Someone else gets hurt.

3- Gausman gets optioned again because they need a bullpen piece, doesn't develop third pitch

4- Brach regresses

5- Wieters never gets back to pre-TJ levels.

6- Tillman and Gonzalez show that 2015 is their true talent level.

7- Dan is forced to use the AAA shuttle and cast offs to fill out the rotation all season.

73 wins?

[SteveO]

I am making a list and checking it twice.

Here is why the O's will be better in 2016.

1) Manny has not reached his peak yet.

2) A full year of Jonathan Schoop.

3) Gausman gets 30 starts and improves

4) Givens will be better than Hunter

5) A full year of a healthy Wieters hits 20 homers

6) Tillman and Gonzalez bounce back. They have shown they are better than 2015.

7) Worley is a better 6th starter than Norris was in 2015.

What needs to be done yet.

1) Replace Chen. Preferable Kazmir but Gallardo will do if that is the way it needs to go.

2) Upgrade from Paredes at DH. Take what the market is offering. Pedro Alvarez is my first choice.

3) After #2 is done then wait out Davis and trade Trumbo which balances the lineup. A backloaded Davis contract will be required.

I know some may think that right field is a problem but I think there is a enough competition to fill the position between Hoes, Rickard, Reimold and Dariel Alvarez.

RF Hoes/Rickard/Reimold

LF Kim (1B backup)

3B Manny (SS backup)

1B Davis

CF Jones

DH P Alvarez/ Reimold

2B Schoop

C Wieters

SS Hardy

Flaherty 2B/3B

Joseph C

Rickard/Hoes 4th OF

Reimold OF/DH

Tillman

Gausman

Kazmir

Jimenez

Gonzalez

Britton

O'Day

Givens

Brach

Matusz

Worley

Roe/McFarland/Drake/Bundy/Wilson/Wright

Bundy probably begins the year on the DL because the O's will want him the rehab for a month in the minors.

Several clubs seem like a fit for Trumbo in trade. Rockies/Pirates/Astros if Reed isn't ready.

If we make those signings then I agree this team has a shot at being competitive if some things break their way.

That is a great big IF though. Your projection of signing Kazmir and Davis might be a little over optimistic till one of those things actually happens.

[Il BuonO]

I don't see how they could trust Nolan to stay healthy enough

to want to use him for RF. As for 1st I would play Trumbo

there. If Peter would use the 150 million ear marked for CD

to help the team. They'd be better off. Be a better team. IMO

You've been saying this for over a year now. Find someone else you don't like.

He proved himself healthy. IMO

Low cost options like Reimold aren't a big risk. IMO

Davis is the greatest. IMO

(Ok, even I can't say that last part with a straight face)