Not so fast when calling Manny a 30m/yr player

[Aristotelian]

Here are the biggest long-term deals for 3B:

David Wright -- top salary $20 mm

Kyle Seager -- top salary $19.5 mm

Evan Longoria -- top salary $19.5 mm

Ryan Zimmerman -- top salary $18 mm

Adrian Beltre -- top salary $17 mm

Even considering Manny's age, defensive prowess and inflation, is he really going to make >50% more per season than these guys?

What about SS? Also do you not consider A-Rod a 3B?

[joeyc]

I bet several of the years will pay that. I am just guessing that it's something like 10 years $295M if it gets done, with escalating annual salaries.

He's not getting that from Angelos. He won't be an oriole too much longer so you guys better enjoy him while you can. He's really just another part timer.

[Frobby]

As an extension? No. As a free agent at 26? Yes. If he is a 35 HR hitter.

Fair enough. Of the contracts I mentioned, only Beltre's was signed as a free agent, and he was entering his age 32 season.

As to whether Manny will consistently hit 35 homers up until free agency, we will see. Only two players have averaged 35 homers over the last four years: Chris Davis and Edwin Encarnacion. Seven others have averaged over 30: Cruz, Trout, Cabrera, Bautista, Stanton, Ortiz and Jones.

27 different players have hit 35 homers in one of the last four years, but only Cabrera, Stanton, Encarnacion, Davis, Trout, Ortiz, Cruz and Bautista have done it more than once. Encarnacion is the only player to do it three times (and he narrowly missed in the 4th year, with 34).

[Frobby]

What about SS? Also do you not consider A-Rod a 3B?

A-Rod was an oversight -- I was thinking about deals signed in the last few years. He topped out at $33 mm. I also should have included Sandoval at $18.6 mm.

As to shortstops, there aren't many who have had huge deals.

H. Ramirez -- $22.75 mm (call him a SS for this purpose)

Jeter -- $22.6 mm

Reyes -- $22 mm

Tulowitzki -- $20 mm

Peralta -- $15.5 mm

Andrus -- $15 mm

Simmons -- $15 mm

[Larry18]

Miguel Cabrera signed his last contract after spending a couple of years pretending he played third.

Manny's AAV may be tied to how long of a contract he wants. He could be looking for a 5 year deal which would cover his prime years for a huge AAV deal. Then hit the market again after his age 31 year.

[Beef Supreme]

Arbitrary measurements, like .399 OBP, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs are not going to determine salary. Nor will leading the league in SBs. Hell, even the $30MM is arbitrary. Machado gives the Orioles a lot from many categories, offensively and defensively. I could envision teams signing him to an extension at >50% the salaries of the players listed by Frobby, whether or not the Orioles do. But if they do want to extend, you can bet those middle and latter years of the contract will gross Machado somewhere in the ballpark of $30MM.

[weams]

Arbitrary measurements, like .399 OBP, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs are not going to determine salary.

They always have. And they will continue to in the near future.

[Frobby]

They always have. And they will continue to in the near future.

I don't know if Beef Supreme made his point as clearly as he could have, but I think he was saying that the cut-off points used in wildcard's analysis are somewhat arbitrary and also aren't the only determinants of how a player will be valued for salary purposes. I agree with him. That said, it's clear that to this point, $30 mm/yr has only been achieved by a handful of players, all of whom when they signed their deals had achieved more elite offensive status than Manny has at this stage of his career.

[wildcard]

If you don't like the numbers I picked, pick your own. There is nothing stopping you. I did some research and the information is right there for anyone to use.

[weams]

I don't know if Beef Supreme made his point as clearly as he could have, but I think he was saying that the cut-off points used in wildcard's analysis are somewhat arbitrary and also aren't the only determinants of how a player will be valued for salary purposes. I agree with him. That said, it's clear that to this point, $30 mm/yr has only been achieved by a handful of players, all of whom when they signed their deals had achieved more elite offensive status than Manny has at this stage of his career.

Well that makes sense. Thanks.

[weams]

If you don't like the numbers I picked, pick your own. There is nothing stopping you. I did some research and the information is right there for anyone to use.

I never complained about them. I think I was just telling the Beef that despite the advent of new statistics, the old ones still rule arbitration and Free Agency.

[OFFNY]

He's not getting that from Angelos. He won't be an oriole too much longer, so you guys better enjoy him while you can. He's really just another part-timer.

"You guys" better enjoy him while you can?

Are you not a fan of our beloved Orioles, also?

[Frobby]

I never complained about them. I think I was just telling the Beef that despite the advent of new statistics, the old ones still rule arbitration and Free Agency.

Arbitration, yes. Free agency, not as much, in my opinion. Heyward would not have gotten 8/$184 mm based on BA/HR/RBI.

[Beef Supreme]

They always have. And they will continue to in the near future.

...Like the 3,000 hit club: That's how Roberto Clemente got into the Hall of Fame and Frank Robinson did not.:rolleyestf:

[Beef Supreme]

I never complained about them. I think I was just telling the Beef that despite the advent of new statistics, the old ones still rule arbitration and Free Agency.

Meh. I doubt that the milestone numbers mean as much as a more holistic take. Depending on the player finishing top 5 or top 13 in multiple categories has to count for a lot, even if the player hit .299 with 29HRs and 99 RBIs and 99 runs scored. I think the milestone numbers mean more to fans when valuing contracts.