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Pressbox: Paul Folk - "Who fits?"


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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Who would be a better fit for the Orioles, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, or Justin Upton? <a href="https://twitter.com/PaulWFolk">@PaulWFolk</a> breaks it down. <a href="https://t.co/ZIqKLeABCA">https://t.co/ZIqKLeABCA</a></p>— PressBox (@PressBoxOnline) <a href="

">January 8, 2016</a></blockquote>

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The MLB free-agent market has been slow to develop, especially for position players, as the offseason drags into January. One big name came off the board when outfielder Alex Gordon re-signed with the Kansas City Royals Jan. 6, but three prominent sluggers -- first baseman Chris Davis and outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton -- remain available.

Davis' camp has been mostly quiet since he reportedly rejected a seven-year, $150 million offer from the Orioles in December. Cespedes and Upton, meanwhile, have reportedly been in contact with several teams but haven't found a suitable match. Some analysts have speculated that Cespedes and Upton are waiting to see where Davis lands, as they could be potential solutions for the Orioles if Davis signs elsewhere.

So let's imagine that the Orioles have the finances to sign one -- and only one -- of the three players. Which should they choose? Let's rank how Davis, Cespedes and Upton compare to each other in several categories.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Who would be a better fit for the Orioles, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, or Justin Upton? <a href="https://twitter.com/PaulWFolk">@PaulWFolk</a> breaks it down. <a href="https://t.co/ZIqKLeABCA">https://t.co/ZIqKLeABCA</a></p>— PressBox (@PressBoxOnline) <a href="
">January 8, 2016</a></blockquote>

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Upton, Cespedes and then Davis. IMO

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Upton, Cespedes and then Davis. IMO

Only if the Upton deal is a multi-year deal.

Trumbo plays first in 2016 and maybe Mancini or Walker gets some time and proves to be the first baseman starting in 2017. If not, maybe Trumbo can be signed to an extension. Since Mancini and Walker are closer to the majors than other position prospects, I'd rather let Davis walk and see if the O's can take care of 1B internally. First base is not currently a hole that needs to be filled.

Upton fills a hole in the lineup and shouldn't cost as much as Davis. With some of the money saved the O's could sign Alvarez to DH. He, Upton and Trumbo will supply more runs that Davis and whoever the O's put in the open outfield spot and whoever the DH is.

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Jim Duquette on Sirus just echoed what Paul said. He says Davis is causing the log jam for Upton and Cespedes. He says the Orioles are the only team that has said they are willing to give at least a 5yr/100+ contract. Other teams are more in for a three year commitment.

So Upton and Cespedes have to wait around to see if Davis signs with Baltimore.

For me the priority is:

Davis because he is lefthanded and helps balance the O's lineup

Cespedes because he requires not draft choice

Upton is last because he requires a draft choice.

However none of them is a possibility. The O's need a starter. How that plays out may be more important then which bat they get. Especially with Pedro Alvarez and Trumbo being rough equal to what Davis and Paredes were last year.

Mancini may be the O's best position prospect that could be ready sometime in 2016 but there are two other players that are intriguing. Rickard as a leadoff hitter/right fielder and Dariel Alvarez in right. I am anxious to see how all three of those players perform.

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Jim Duquette on Sirus just echoed what Paul said. He says Davis is causing the log jam for Upton and Cespedes. He says the Orioles are the only team that has said they are willing to give at least a 5yr/100+ contract. Other teams are more in for a three year commitment.

I don't see how it's possible that Justin Upton doesn't have bidders who are willing to go 5+ years. He'll be 29 years old next season. I find it pretty hard to believe with Cespedes, too. There has to be more to the story than that.

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I don't see how it's possible that Justin Upton doesn't have bidders who are willing to go 5+ years. He'll be 29 years old next season. I find it pretty hard to believe with Cespedes, too. There has to be more to the story than that.

I think we have to consider that player salary inflation that has occurred with Greinke, Price and Heyward in late 2015 may have an affect on salary arbitration cases in early 2016. GMs have to wondering what the cost to their budget will be. For instance, Manny was projected to get 5.9m by MLBTR. Is that still valid or will it raise?

So as what has just happened to market prices sinks in to ball clubs executives they are being a little more caution on how they spend in the new year. Guys that wanted 5 years and over 100m may find that shorter contracts will be offered. JMO

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I think we have to consider that player salary inflation that has occurred with Greinke, Price and Heyward in late 2015 may have an affect on salary arbitration cases in early 2016. GMs have to wondering what the cost to their budget will be. For instance, Manny was projected to get 5.9m by MLBTR. Is that still valid or will it raise?

So as what has just happened to market prices sinks in to ball clubs executives they are being a little more caution on how they spend in the new year. Guys that wanted 5 years and over 100m may find that shorter contracts will be offered. JMO

As I understand it, free agent signings are not a basis for arbitration.

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I don't see how it's possible that Justin Upton doesn't have bidders who are willing to go 5+ years. He'll be 29 years old next season. I find it pretty hard to believe with Cespedes, too. There has to be more to the story than that.

It's a question of demand. What teams really need an OF enough to pay 5/100M +? Maybe DET. Not LAA, STL, TEX, CHW, was, or SF.Who else?

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Only if the Upton deal is a multi-year deal.

Trumbo plays first in 2016 and maybe Mancini or Walker gets some time and proves to be the first baseman starting in 2017. If not, maybe Trumbo can be signed to an extension. Since Mancini and Walker are closer to the majors than other position prospects, I'd rather let Davis walk and see if the O's can take care of 1B internally. First base is not currently a hole that needs to be filled.

Upton fills a hole in the lineup and shouldn't cost as much as Davis. With some of the money saved the O's could sign Alvarez to DH. He, Upton and Trumbo will supply more runs that Davis and whoever the O's put in the open outfield spot and whoever the DH is.

This would be my preference as well.

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Upton is not going to sign a one-year deal. Fantasy land. He won't miraculously fall into our laps...

We either sign Davis and a retread pitcher to complete with the great Vanimal or we get Pedro Alvarez and a starter (Doug Fister comes to mind).

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Upton is not going to sign a one-year deal. Fantasy land. He won't miraculously fall into our laps...

We either sign Davis and a retread pitcher to complete with the great Vanimal or we get Pedro Alvarez and a starter (Doug Fister comes to mind).

I agree. Upton will not sign a one year deal.

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Upton is not going to sign a one-year deal. Fantasy land. He won't miraculously fall into our laps...

We either sign Davis and a retread pitcher to complete with the great Vanimal or we get Pedro Alvarez and a starter (Doug Fister comes to mind).

Davis and a retread will cost much more than Alvarez and Fister, so I don't see this as an either/or

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