Davis Signs With Baltimore (7/$161M, incl $42M deferred)

[Orioles West]

This is a wow for me. Yes, some overspending for sure, but certainly the left handed power bat helps more (at least to me) then a nearly as expensive Cespedes or Upton over the long haul. I bought into the idea the O's had moved on, and as a fan over 40 years now, I fully expected Davis to depart after balking at the initial offer.

What did we win?

Nothing yet, but some pretty nice looking one bounce to the warehouse home runs. And, I like those.

May he stay healthy, and out of trouble, and get some more pitching help before this season starts....

-Don

[weams]

Someone is full of it. No way Cespedes is seeking more than 161M in total commitment. It is somewhat plausible that he could be seeking more than 23M AAV for a 3-4 year deal, but still unlikely.

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I do not know. I would not have paid him AAV 20 for five myself.

[waroriole]

Someone is full of it. No way Cespedes is seeking more than 161M in total commitment. It is somewhat plausible that he could be seeking more than 23M AAV for a 3-4 year deal, but still unlikely.

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Roch doing his PR work.

[weams]

This is a wow for me. Yes, some overspending for sure, but certainly the left handed power bat helps more (at least to me) then a nearly as expensive Cespedes or Upton over the long haul. I bought into the idea the O's had moved on, and as a fan over 40 years now, I fully expected Davis to depart after balking at the initial offer.

What did we win?

Nothing yet, but some pretty nice looking one bounce to the warehouse home runs. And, I like those.

May he stay healthy, and out of trouble, and get some more pitching help before this season starts....

-Don

Some home runs for the next few seasons. And a lock down at first base. And Adam's joy. And a Ticket announcement.

[Tony-OH]

Someone posted a few days ago (it might've been vatech or Frobby) that Boras is a master at playing off the sentiments of owners. That appears to be exactly what he did here to Angelos. He got Angelos to bid well more than anyone else was offering (as far as we know) by taking advantage of Angelos' personal fondness for Davis.

Sigh. Boras wins again. And he also got 5/$70 for Ian Kennedy from the Royals somehow.

Say what you want about Boros, but he is a master manipulator who gets the last drop of money he can for his players. No one, and I mean none was bidding on Davis yet he squeezed another million a year from Angelos. Going seven years for a guy with this much miss is a mistake. The years and money just don't make sense for a guy who could come back next year and hit .210 with 30 dingers and 220 Ks. Kudos to Boros. Sometimes you have to tip your cap to a guy who knows how to work on sentimental owners who don't let their GMs use their money how they'd like, but rather how he wants to them to spend it.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

On the first point, clubs currently do no pay players who are busted/suspended under the PED rules (see: Rodriguez, Alex).

On the second point, I suspect there is some decent amount of the contract that is deferred, such that this may be less in terms of real 2015 dollars than initially offered.

Thanks for pointing that out. And agree on the deferred money. Hope there is a good chunk.

I like CD, and clearly this is a move to try to win now, over the next 2-3 years. Just going to be tough to stomach seeing a guy like Upton, who I liked more, getting a good deal less money (probably).

Oh well. O's are putting up in an attempt to win. Add a Latos or a Fister and let's give this a go.

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[xian4]

I'm all for a Cespedes pillow deal ....

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[Can_of_corn]

Britt is on Sport Center

What's her take?

[ledzepp8]

Part of me says "Yea. I like Chris Davis. He's been a very good Oriole. I'm glad he's pretty much going to finish his career here."

Part of me says "Hmm. They're paying a guy who had three good years in his 20s to have seven in his 30s. That's almost guaranteed to not happen. This contract will almost certainly end up somewhere between not-so-bad and 'Ryan Howard'."

My contract estimator said he was worth $120, so this is about a 30% overpay. And he's a extreme variance guy. You can almost count on 2-3 zeros out of the seven years.

This is pretty much how I feel about it as well. That being said, probably the vast majority of FA deals end up not being worth the money but that doesn't seem to deter the salaries and long term contracts from getting higher and higher each year. So I guess if you're the Orioles, you either join the party or stay at home.

[TradeAngelos]

I seriously doubt he will be worth 20 wins. If we get 15 out of him I'll consider us fortunate.

And even at 15 he is worth the deal easily. He has one more great year at 5ish and he needs 10 over the other 6. That should be pretty easy barring injury.

[Can_of_corn]

I do not know. I would not have paid him AAV 20 for five myself.

5/100 for Cespedes isn't near as bad as 7/161 for Davis.

Plus a pick!

Retaining Davis and Wieters really socked it to the 2016 Draft.

[DrungoHazewood]

I could be wrong but Davis would need about 20 wins to be worth contract, assuming very conservative win inflation. (9.1m by time deal ends). Over 7 years I don't see that as a problem, even with a small dropoff every single year.

Davis was worth about 15 wins in his 20s. I'd guess 80%+ of players are worth more in their 20s than their 30s.

If you assume $7M/win, 5% inflation, 4-3-2-1 weighting of the last four years, and half a win decline a year Davis is worth about $120M. Without considering possibly accelerated decline due to age and type of player.

[weams]

Say what you want about Boros, but he is a master manipulator who gets the last drop of money he can for his players. No one, and I mean none was bidding on Davis yet he squeezed another million a year from Angelos. Going seven years for a guy with this much miss is a mistake. The years and money just don't make sense for a guy who could come back next year and hit .210 with 30 dingers and 220 Ks. Kudos to Boros. Sometimes you have to tip your cap to a guy who knows how to work on sentimental owners who don't let their GMs use their money how they'd like, but rather how he wants to them to spend it.

Boras certainly got what he needed.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Someone is full of it. No way Cespedes is seeking more than 161M in total commitment. It is somewhat plausible that he could be seeking more than 23M AAV for a 3-4 year deal, but still unlikely.

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I think there is a difference between what he is seeking and what the legitimate market for him is. Chen was seeking $100M for 5, we know he got more like $80.

[Can_of_corn]

The plan has to be to move Trumbo, Davis, and Kim through the RF/DH/1B slots. I'm not saying I like that plan, only that this looks to be where they are going. Davis may be the best defensive outfielder of the three which is a bit scary.

So, I'm setting the over/under for Davis starts in the outfield at 54 (1 in 3 games) and going with the over anyway. Anyone else?

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Going to be hard for the starters to bounce back with that defense behind them.

Going to be a lot of balls dropping in, Jones doesn't have the range to get to cover both gaps.