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Keith Law: Sisco no. 81 prospect, Harvey no. 100


Frobby

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Per Steve Melewski, Keith Law ranked Chance Sisco the no. 81 prospect today, saying that his defense has improved and that his glove is ahead of his arm. That's encouraging, because as I've noted elsewhere, Sisco's CS% improved dramatically as the season went on. If Sisco can stick at catcher, we've got a real prospect on our hands.

Law also ranked Hunter Harvey no. 100.

BA released its nos. 51-100 online and there are no Orioles. The top 50 are being announced on MLB Network at 9 pm (15 minutes from now). Could we be shut out? I hope not!

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No Oriole was in the "just missed" list that Keith Law put out (101-110). Also, he ranked our system 27th in the game. This was his explanation for our ranking:

"Hunter Harvey has been out for a year and a half; Dylan Bundy can't stay healthy and could be done as a starter; and their best prospect is a catcher who might be a singles hitter. Their upside was almost entirely in short-season last summer, but they wouldn't be in this situation if the last wave of arms had panned out."

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Reminder that 24 months ago, BP rated the Orioles with the best collection of under 25 talent in the AL:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22944

Gausman was even ahead of Machado then.

I don't think our farm is in great shape now, but I do think the optics are worse than the reality. With 3.5 healthy seasons and medium case outcomes, I say Bundy, Harvey, Sisco and Reyes are all Top 100's next year.

The 0.5 is for Bundy, who I am guessing will get some DL time, stay under 50 career MLB innings, and still be on lists next year (aka, doing the Buxton).

Bundy and Harvey both having healthy seasons is the main key, which while fairly unlikely to happen, isn't impossible.

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No Oriole was in the "just missed" list that Keith Law put out (101-110). Also, he ranked our system 27th in the game. This was his explanation for our ranking:

"Hunter Harvey has been out for a year and a half; Dylan Bundy can't stay healthy and could be done as a starter; and their best prospect is a catcher who might be a singles hitter. Their upside was almost entirely in short-season last summer, but they wouldn't be in this situation if the last wave of arms had panned out."

I think the last part there is everything. They haven't really done anything other than run into a bit of bad injury juju with their young pitchers and a rash of underperformance.

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No Oriole was in the "just missed" list that Keith Law put out (101-110). Also, he ranked our system 27th in the game. This was his explanation for our ranking:

"Hunter Harvey has been out for a year and a half; Dylan Bundy can't stay healthy and could be done as a starter; and their best prospect is a catcher who might be a singles hitter. Their upside was almost entirely in short-season last summer, but they wouldn't be in this situation if the last wave of arms had panned out."

He certainly doesn't have any optimism for the Orioles' farm.

..but then again, why would he given their history.

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I think the last part there is everything. They haven't really done anything other than run into a bit of bad injury juju with their young pitchers and a rash of underperformance.

Well, that's kind of the situation they've been in for the majority of the last 20 years isn't it?

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The funny thing about this ranking is that our system could completely jump up 10-15+ without adding a single player. If Harvey, Bundy, and Kline are healthy. Reyes and Cisco continue to mash. DJ Stewart hits like a first rd pick. We'll have alot of short season guys that will be making their Delmarva debuts that we're high on. Plus we have some nice role player type prospects that are already in the upper minors.

I'm sure every organization can say this. But Reyes, Mountcastle, and even DJ Stewart could all be top 100 guys by the time of the draft in June.

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I never thought the Os would have this "vacant" sign when it comes to our minor league system. When it comes to our ability to compete, short of a $150M payroll, a quality minor league system has been of significant importance since I've been at the Hangout since 2001. This current run has been paid for with the cheapness of Tillman, Chen, Davis, Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman. We are running out of quality cheap guys to bring to the majors.

If folks want to claim an Os victory with Mychal Givens, about the last remnant of our prior scouting director, that is truly sad. I have not seen an analysis, but I imagine the Os WAR from rookie contributors was in the bottom third of the league last year and is almost certain to be there or even the bottom five teams for the next three to five years. Very, very sad.

So, yeah we did bring up a reliever last year - oh joy.

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Interesting that he didn't list Bundy considering how incredibly high he was on him before his injuries.

He just posted 101-110 but I'm not an insider.

Edit- They don't have anyone from 1-50.

Sure would be nice to have three first round draft picks...

It would be nice to have the high picks. But other than Machado and Wieters, what have the high picks really produced? I guess add Markakis also. What's the point of having high picks, if you have issues in developing the players. Teams like the Giants and Cardinals usually have lower draft picks and have no issues giving up picks to sign FA. Yet they continue to bust out talent. Why? Because they scout and develop well.

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I never thought the Os would have this "vacant" sign when it comes to our minor league system. When it comes to our ability to compete, short of a $150M payroll, a quality minor league system has been of significant importance since I've been at the Hangout since 2001. This current run has been paid for with the cheapness of Tillman, Chen, Davis, Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman. We are running out of quality cheap guys to bring to the majors.

If folks want to claim an Os victory with Mychal Givens, about the last remnant of our prior scouting director, that is truly sad. I have not seen an analysis, but I imagine the Os WAR from rookie contributors was in the bottom third of the league last year and is almost certain to be there or even the bottom five teams for the next three to five years. Very, very sad.

So, yeah we did bring up a reliever last year - oh joy.

On the bright side we got all these picks coming up in the next draft!

Oh wait...

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It would be nice to have the high picks. But other than Machado and Wieters, what have the high picks really produced? I guess add Markakis also. What's the point of having high picks, if you have issues in developing the players. Teams like the Giants and Cardinals usually have lower draft picks and have no issues giving up picks to sign FA. Yet they continue to bust out talent. Why? Because they scout and develop well.

If Team A has an 80% success rate in developing minor leaguers and team B has a 40% success rate than team B needs twice as many prospects, not half as many.

Poor development is not an excuse for giving away picks, all it does is exacerbate the situation.

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