PECOTA projections

[ArtVanDelay]

Yea, these things are terrible. I remember them thinking the 2011 team was going to be good.

Funny how people here only talk about these things when they say the O's will be bad or the Red Sox will be good.

Aren't we projected to be bad every year?

[Frobby]

Yeah, and here was a carefully reasoned, statistically sound, complex, researched opinion from one of the top baseball blogs in January 2014. Ummm....a little off. 78 wins, last place for 2014...actual results 96 wins, first place. So the range of most "predictions" for wins seems to be somewhere between 75 and 95. And I predict that tomorrow it will either snow....or it won't. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-stars-and-scrubs-problem/

Of course, that article was long before we acquired Jimenez and Cruz. But that wouldn't have moved the needle more than 5-6 games, if that. I think Schoefield's prediction assumes the acquisition of Gallardo.

[Can_of_corn]

Aren't we projected to be bad every year?

What were the predictions for last season? I don't recall but I think it was around .500.

[SpinJr]

There certainly is a counterargument that can be made. I don't think "stats people are dumb" is a tactful or accurate one, though.

Hasn't our pitching staff been shattering projections each of the last four years?

[Can_of_corn]

Hasn't our pitching staff been shattering projections each of the last four years?

They shattered projections last year?

[SpinJr]

They shattered projections last year?

I initially thought about saying, excluding last year. However, I'm not sure we exceeded there. I haven't looked at the data.

Heck for 2014 I don't have too.

[SpinJr]

I'm not sure we *didn't exceed there

[SpinJr]

I'm not sure we *didn't exceed there

I'm joining today so I can edit

[fearthenoodle]

Everyone's favorite projection system.

TB 91-71

BOS 88-74

TOR 86-76

NY 85-77

BAL 72-90

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

[Aristotelian]

Crazy. Not surprised about the O's, but I am curious how they end up with Tampa #1. Sure they fleeced the Rockies of Dickerson, but is he that big of a difference maker?

[Frobby]

That's insane. They have us scoring 16 fewer runs and allowing 93 more runs than last year. That's unjustifiable.

[weams]

That's insane. They have us scoring 16 fewer runs and allowing 93 more runs than last year. That's unjustifiable.

It will be enjoyable smashing these projects. Once again.

[BohKnowsBmore]

What were the predictions for last season? I don't recall but I think it was around .500.

This is PECOTA, so it's not all sets of "predictions," but:

http://edgevegas.com/2015-mlb-season-win-total-pecota-projections/

They had us at 78 - 84, which isn't a far cry from 81 - 81, but still below where we ended up. They also had us finishing in last in the division and the Red Sox winning the division with 87 wins. So, while it's not like we blew them away last season, the predictions still seemed to follow the trend being alluded to.

[Ripken]

That's insane. They have us scoring 16 fewer runs and allowing 93 more runs than last year. That's unjustifiable.

Yeah, I'm not real bullish on this team (though I would be with Gallardo and Fowler) and the farm is weak, etc., but that projection is [insert profanity].

[Frobby]

I'd really like to see what's behind those pitching projections. They have us allowing the most runs in the majors, by a pretty wide margin.