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PECOTA projections

markakis8

By markakis8
in Orioles Talk

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McLovin Veteran All-Star

McLovin

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It's a good article. He states the reason why he believes the Orioles will struggle, starting pitching and OBP.

And that's just logical. A mediocre rotation is coming back worse. And the all or nothing offense is going to be even more all or nothing. Even if they make the playoffs, that's not a WS winning formula.

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Dipper9 Hangout Grand Counsel

Dipper9

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I agree starting pitching is our biggest question mark and is the deciding factor on where this team goes, but I'm not crying about losing Chen. He may or may not have been our best pitcher, but he's certainly no ace and he can be replaced if other guys revert to 2014 numbers. Losing Chen isn't like losing Palmer. I think we can be okay without him.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Lol. Stats people are dumb. If our pitching does well, we'll be in the playoffs, get a few breaks here and there, WS champs

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Yea, that's the way to convince people. Don't do your own research to counter a piece you disagree with, just say "them book-learnin' weirdos iz the dumb!"

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MDtransplant757 Hangout Grand Counsel

MDtransplant757

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Yea, that's the way to convince people. Don't do your own research to counter a piece you disagree with, just say "them book-learnin' weirdos iz the dumb!"

I was saying that people who just use stats to justify why they say your team will stink. And those same "stats" have the Red Sox winning it all

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I was saying that people who just use stats to justify why they say your team will stink. And those same "stats" have the Red Sox winning it all

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They finished three games behind Baltimore, added David Price and Kimbrel, and Bogaerts/Betts/Swihart/Rodriguez are all a year older. I don't know that it's crazy to think Boston is at least as likely to make a playoff appearance as is Baltimore.

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MDtransplant757 Hangout Grand Counsel

MDtransplant757

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They finished three games behind Baltimore, added David Price and Kimbrel, and Bogaerts/Betts/Swihart/Rodriguez are all a year older. I don't know that it's crazy to think Boston is at least as likely to make a playoff appearance as is Baltimore.

Because who else do they have besides price and Kimbrel and buckholts? Bullpen is an joke. Bogaerts/Betts/Swihart/Rodriguez are good, but shut them down and this team is done.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Because who else do they have besides price and Kimbrel and buckholts? Bullpen is an joke. Bogaerts/Betts/Swihart/Rodriguez are good, but shut them down and this team is done.

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They finished three games behind Baltimore last year, with Baltimore winning their last six against B-squads on playoff teams resting their regulars. I think maybe you are looked at this from a slightly biased perspective.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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I don't know why people take these things so seriously. If we add Gallardo and Fowler we are about an 84-85 W team. Which means there could be a ten point variance either way. So maybe as bad as 74, or as good as 94.

Setting the error bars on a prediction that wide isn't going out on much of a limb.

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osfanfrom70 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

osfanfrom70

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Maybe I am. I'm just calling what I see

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Mdtranspalnt is one of the biggest O's homers on this board and thats what I like about him! That said most people feel Boston will be better than Baltimore this year. Who cares though that is why they play the games. I will say though just as crazy as thinking they are 23rd in the league is thinking they win the World Series. I'd say the result is somewhere in the middle.

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MDtransplant757 Hangout Grand Counsel

MDtransplant757

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Mdtranspalnt is one of the biggest O's homers on this board and thats what I like about him! That said most people feel Boston will be better than Baltimore this year. Who cares though that is why they play the games. I will say though just as crazy as thinking they are 23rd in the league is thinking they win the World Series. I'd say the result is somewhere in the middle.

My homerisms come after defending a horrid team. I think we're criminally underrated and I love it

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I would say stubborn, thick headed and a few other words, but that's not what I meant. I meant justifying hyping a team up based on bogus predictions before we're even at ST

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If he predicted that the O's would win 97 games would you still be calling him out?

For someone that aspires to be a GM you are very anti-analytics.

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MDtransplant757 Hangout Grand Counsel

MDtransplant757

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If he predicted that the O's would win 97 games would you still be calling him out?

For someone that aspires to be a GM you are very anti-analytics.

I just love the underdog mentality (let's be real, unless we had Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, we're never gonna be the sexy pick to win it all). I've had it all my life. I'm not anti analytical. They have their place and are a huge value, but when people just throw random stats at you and say "this is why your team will forever suck", that gets annoying really quick. People over preform and under preform, and that why you play 162 games. Just angers me that no one thinks that maybe we'll be middle of the pack and not hanging around teams that do stink like San Deigo. This time of year enrages me as a baseball fan, and it's great when September comes around and everyone is wrong.

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