PECOTA projections

[weams]

I'd really like to see what's behind those pitching projections. They have us allowing the most runs in the majors, by a pretty wide margin.

"Predictive" analytic statistical trends. I guess.

[Redskins Rick]

I'd really like to see what's behind those pitching projections. They have us allowing the most runs in the majors, by a pretty wide margin.

When was the last time, PECOTA was remotely right about any of their preseason predictions about the Orioles?

[Redskins Rick]

"Predictive" analytic statistical trends. I guess.

I think the Magic 8 ball would be more accurate than PECOTA, geeze.

[DrungoHazewood]

I no longer subscribe to BP, but it would be interesting to see what the details are. I'm not a big PECOTA fan, I think its comp-based projections sometimes result in unjustifiable idiosyncratic results. And I also know that in previous years early drafts of the PECTOA projections were incomplete with weird playing time numbers and depth charts. Before jumping to profanity-laced conclusions I'd like to see some backup data.

[Redskins Rick]

Mods, would it make sense to merge these two threads, since they are the same topic:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/151702-I-wasn-t-expecting-top-10-but-23rd-With-a-predicted-74-win-season/page7

????

[Frobby]

2013: 74-88

2014: 75-87

2015: 78-84

2016: 72-90

2015 wasn't that far off, though still too pessimistic. But this is the second year in a row they have predicted that Tampa will outscore us. We outscored Tampa by 69 runs last year. I really don't know what they're smoking.

[Orange]

So they say we will score the fewest runs in the division and also have the worst FRAA (fielding runs) plus our OBP will be worse than last year. Strange, right?

[Redskins Rick]

2013: 74-88

2014: 75-87

2015: 78-84

2016: 72-90

2015 wasn't that far off, though still too pessimistic. But this is the second year in a row they have predicted that Tampa will outscore us. We outscored Tampa by 69 runs last year. I really don't know what they're smoking.

And we all know how well they did in 2014, don't we?

[Aristotelian]

I'd really like to see what's behind those pitching projections. They have us allowing the most runs in the majors, by a pretty wide margin.

You take a bad pitching staff and lose your best pitcher, you are going to get a bad projection. I am more surprised by the Tampa result.

[Redskins Rick]

You take a bad pitching staff and lose your best pitcher, you are going to get a bad projection. I am more surprised by the Tampa result.

This isn't a bad pitching staff, this is a good pitching staff that suffered a down year last year, that did lose a good pitcher, but a good pitcher that had limitations and even when he was here, PECOTA was still pessimistic in their predictions of this team.

[Can_of_corn]

This isn't a bad pitching staff, this is a good pitching staff that suffered a down year last year, that did lose a good pitcher, but a good pitcher that had limitations and even when he was here, PECOTA was still pessimistic in their predictions of this team.

Or it is a bad pitching staff that had a good year in 2014.

We might find out which this year.

[Aristotelian]

This isn't a bad pitching staff, this is a good pitching staff that suffered a down year last year, that did lose a good pitcher, but a good pitcher that had limitations and even when he was here, PECOTA was still pessimistic in their predictions of this team.

Let me rephrase. You take a pitching staff that was bad last year, lose their best pitcher, and you are going to get a bad projection.

The offensive projection is a mystery. Same core group of players. I don't know why we would score dramatically fewer runs. Maybe they expect Manny, Schoop, and Davis to regress, each of whom was significantly worse in 2014.

[Redskins Rick]

Let me rephrase. You take a pitching staff that was bad last year, lose their best pitcher, and you are going to get a bad projection.

The offensive projection is a mystery. Same core group of players. I don't know why we would score dramatically fewer runs. Maybe they expect Manny, Schoop, and Davis to regress, each of whom was significantly worse in 2014.

They predicted failure in 2012, 2013 and 2014, this is what they do.

He wasn't their best pitcher in 2014, he was their best pitcher in 2015.

[Aristotelian]

They predicted failure in 2012, 2013 and 2014, this is what they do.

He wasn't their best pitcher in 2014, he was their best pitcher in 2015.

Who was our best pitcher in 2014? If it was Tillman, it was very, very close. Slightly better ERA vs slightly better FIP. Same K/9 but Chen crushed Tillman in BB/9, always has. No question in my mind, Chen has been the O's best pitcher overall the last three years.

I am not defending PECOTA at all, I know that it has gotten the Orioles wrong more often than it has gotten them right. I am just not surprised by the pitching projection this year.

[Redskins Rick]

Who was our best pitcher in 2014? If it was Tillman, it was very, very close. Slightly better ERA vs slightly better FIP. Same K/9 but Chen crushed Tillman in BB/9, always has. No question in my mind, Chen has been the O's best pitcher overall the last three years.

I am not defending PECOTA at all, I know that it has gotten the Orioles wrong more often than it has gotten them right. I am just not surprised by the pitching projection this year.

Then clearly Chen should have been opening day starter, than shouldn't he.

I think personally, Chen is a good pitcher, that when handled by a good manager, got more out of him, then maybe the next guy.

So it shall be interesting to see how he performs in Florida.