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Evaluating the Gallardo Contract


FanSince88

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Why would you want the Orioles to take themselves out of the running for a starting pitcher to automatically award a rotation spot to Gonzo? I like Gonzo. He's been a good pitcher for us. However even in his good years, his ERA was over a run lower than his FIP because of an absurd rate. Last year, his strand rate regressed to the mean and the results were ugly. It would have been nice if the Orioles had signed a pitcher Latos or Fister along with Gallardo to really fortify the rotation.

I wouldn't just hand Gonzalez a rotation spot, no. If you were the second of those two guys, would you sign here or somewhere else where you have a better chance at making the rotation? What do you do with the extra roster spot? Keep Givens down? What if that extra 3-7M prevents you from signing Fowler?

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I wouldn't just hand Gonzalez a rotation spot, no. If you were the second of those two guys, would you sign here or somewhere else where you have a better chance at making the rotation? What do you do with the extra roster spot? Keep Givens down? What if that extra 3-7M prevents you from signing Fowler?

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Nobody said anything from the FO about not having money to sign Fowler, just taking longer than the fans want to happen.

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Nobody said anything from the FO about not having money to sign Fowler, just taking longer than the fans want to happen.

I'm not sure you were following the conversation. If/when we sign Fowler and payroll increases to around $150, do you think there is room in the budget to spend an extra $7M for a sixth starter?

I'm not worried about their ability to sign Fowler.

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I'm not sure you were following the conversation. If/when we sign Fowler and payroll increases to around $150, do you think there is room in the budget to spend an extra $7M for a sixth starter?

I'm not worried about their ability to sign Fowler.

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Ops, sorry.

Personally, I fear that the 150 range is probably topping out their room.

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/28495

He has topped 30 starts and 180 innings for seven straight seasons, the guy who has already undergone the signature concession of an aging pitcher, moving from strikeout stud to ground-ball grinder, the guy who kept the Rangers? thin pitching staff afloat long enough to let them get less thin and scramble to the division title in 2015, that guy is over a year younger than Jeff Samardzija.

There are two ways to read that, I guess. One way is that, hey, there?s really no reason not to believe there?s something left in Gallardo?s tank. Sure, he?s not missing bats the way he used to, but he?s still found success consistently over the last several years. His velocity hasn?t dropped measurably since 2012. He upped his slider usage in 2015, but the pitch didn?t go flat or get hittable from the added exposure. Few methods for comparing players are rougher than the Similarity Scores at the bottom of Baseball Reference pages, but Gallardo?s top comp there is Jake Peavy. Everyone thought Peavy?s arm was ready to fall off five years ago, too, and that his numbers were trending permanently in the wrong direction. Since then, Peavy has two full seasons, two halved by injuries, and one halfway between those posts. He?s won two World Series rings, and delivered 11.4 WARP.

On the other hand, Gallardo last had a cFIP below 100 (in other words, was last an above-average pitcher in a predictive, skill-centric sense) in 2012. PECOTA doesn?t even want to talk about Peavy; he?s not listed among the 100 pitchers most similar to Gallardo. Instead, the four closest modern comps the system gives are: Gavin Floyd, Jason Hammel, Brad Penny, and Matt Garza. When the uneven half-season dominance Hammel has managed each of the last two years is the beacon of optimism, things aren?t looking up.

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He's quality. He becomes one of the 3 best starting pitchers on the team, immediately. Adding money from the draft pick makes little sense since the money spent on the pick would not have appeared in the 2016 payroll calculations. Whomever they would have drafted would not appear on the major league payroll for the duration of Gallardo's contract and based on averages, Gallardo has had a better career than the average #14 pick over the last 12-15 years.

He improves the team and was the best starting pitcher available for the money. If they would have paid 5 millions a year more they might have gotten a better player, but I believe the O's maxed out on what they were willing to pay a starting pitcher. Good job O's you got him and at a good price. Face folks, you get what you pay for.

I like it. Would rather have had a better pitcher, but satisfied they bolstered the rotation with a professional

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If we add $20mil to Gallardo's contract to compensate for the lack of draft pick, we get 3/55.

* I'm convinced it would have taken 5/100 to get Chen signed here, in a hitter friendly league, hitter-friendly division, and hitter-friendly ballpark, without an opt out. Oh, and let's tack another $5 mil on to that to cover the loss of the comp pick for Chen. Ahem. So the Gallardo deal is nearly half the price and nearly half the time commitment as a Chen deal would have been. Gallardo may not be as good as Chen, but you've gotta think he'll be at least two-thirds as good. I'd say we head-to-head I'd rather take the Gallardo deal.

But that said...

* Ugh, we probably could have had Kazmir for 3/60. Sure, $5mil more than Gallardo but we did need a lefty starter and Kazmir might be better. And that 14th pick might just be worth a little more than $20 mil to an organization with as depleted a farm system as the O's.

* Ugh, we could have signed both Fister AND Latos to one year deals for slightly more combined than we gave Yovani for one year, without losing the pick. Now they could probably both be significantly worse than Gallardo is, but there's an outside chance that one -- possibly Fister? -- could be better. Lots of O's fans will be eating crow if Fister has a bounce-back year in 2016 and Gallardo struggles.

*STILL, given the position we were in at the end of the FA class, given the inflated market for starters, I do have to say "well played" to DD for staring Gallardo down and getting a $10 mil cheaper deal than was initially rumored. Yovani blinked first, and we get a much better, low-risk deal than the one it would have taken to resign Chen. There were probably better deals to be made for SP this offseason, but at least something was done of significance. Gallardo will lessen the pressure on the other four guys. And, if one of them has a Norris-style meltdown this year, maybe the team won't feel as compelled to keep trotting them out there. I'm pretty convinced that Arrieta in 2013 and Norris last year were the biggest impediments to the O's playoff hopes in those respective seasons. Hopefully, with more depth that Gallardo brings, maybe the team will be more inclined to bench a struggling starter before they completely melt down.

Does this "20 million" value (which is an estimate and not on any budget sheets) for the pick include not having to pay the estimated 3 million dollar bonus (which IS a true savings from this year's budget sheet) for the number 14 pick? I really do not see how using these kinds of future value guesstimates helps the decision making process because the value is inherently not predictable...if I am a GM, either I think the pick is necessary for me to restock or I think that the player is necessary to help win now and to heck with the pick. This may mean I miss out on some pick that produces 20 or 100 million or maybe produces zero (i.e. fill in any number of past Orioles number one draft picks...). If the pick turns out to be Matt Hobgood, then, in fact, Gallardo's contract turns out actually to be 3/32 (because you did not have to pay the 3 million dollar bonus for a pick that produced no value.)

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It's an average of what all picks at that point would be worth. And it is not definite. But it has nothing to do with what team it is for.

According to whom?

According to this article, a 14th pick is worth somewhere in the vicinity of 2.7-3.2 WAR. That would be worth 22-26 million. However, it assumes that you'll get the production now (or in the upcoming season.) If you add a discount for the fact that a draft pick is usually future value, it's closer to 11-13 million. That's quite a long ways from 20 million.

Dave Cameron also thinks the 20 million value is quite high, as he assigns a value of 15-20 million for a 14th pick.

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According to whom?

According to this article, a 14th pick is worth somewhere in the vicinity of 2.7-3.2 WAR. That would be worth 22-26 million. However, it assumes that you'll get the production now (or in the upcoming season.) If you add a discount for the fact that a draft pick is usually future value, it's closer to 11-13 million. That's quite a long ways from 20 million.

Dave Cameron also thinks the 20 million value is quite high, as he assigns a value of 15-20 million for a 14th pick.

15 to 20 is a reasonable supposition. But maybe it is more. In general, most folks think the value is between 10 to 25 million. I'm certainly not in any position to argue that.

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Why would you want the Orioles to take themselves out of the running for a starting pitcher to automatically award a rotation spot to Gonzo? I like Gonzo. He's been a good pitcher for us. However even in his good years, his ERA was over a run lower than his FIP because of an absurd rate. Last year, his strand rate regressed to the mean and the results were ugly. It would have been nice if the Orioles had signed a pitcher Latos or Fister along with Gallardo to really fortify the rotation.

Perhaps most Orioles pitchers (Chen included) outperform their FIP by wide margins is because the Orioles fielding has been among the top 2 or 3 I the league the last few years. If Gallardo and Chen have equivalent FIPs and are similarly aged, I would think that Gallardo would outperform Chen simply because he is pitching in front of better defense this season.

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According to whom?

...

If you add a discount for the fact that a draft pick is usually future value, it's closer to 11-13 million. That's quite a long ways from 20 million.

.

According to what methodology? That seems to be a dramatic discount, in that money has no discounted time value at this point.
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I'm not sure you were following the conversation. If/when we sign Fowler and payroll increases to around $150, do you think there is room in the budget to spend an extra $7M for a sixth starter?

I'm not worried about their ability to sign Fowler.

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Ops, sorry.

Personally, I fear that the 150 range is probably topping out their room.

Well, to be fair, I think the FO has blown past all of our expectations on budget to this point, so it may be best to throw out any hard and fast notions with respect to where the cap is.

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15 to 20 is a reasonable supposition. But maybe it is more. In general, most folks think the value is between 10 to 25 million. I'm certainly not in any position to argue that.

Just a thought, but if we are basing the value of the draft pick on war, should we also judge Gallardo's contract that way? If we are paying him for approximately 4 war over 3 years and the pick is worth 2-3 war, then he more than covers for the lost pick if he averages 2.5 war/yr.

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Just a thought, but if we are basing the value of the draft pick on war, should we also judge Gallardo's contract that way? If we are paying him for approximately 4 war over 3 years and the pick is worth 2-3 war, then he more than covers for the lost pick if he averages 2.5 war/yr.

I'm not using any formula. Just quoting what others have said. Most minds tend to hover around that 20 million value for a 14 pick.

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