Just go trade for Jay Bruce or Markakis

[El Gordo]

Great analysis e16bball. :clap3::thumbsup1:

[e16bball]

Thanks to all for the kind words.

I neglected to mention one other thing in my previous post(s) that could be another source of bounce back production. UZR did still have Bruce rated as a below average defender in RF last season (-4.2 runs) --- but DRS actually had him back to a good bit above average (+5 runs). If his defense could turn out to be a positive asset next season, instead of a clear negative as we've generally been assuming, that would be an added bonus.

It gives me some optimism about the O's front office that we seem to be most prominently linked to Bruce at this point. They've been good at picking out undervalued assets in the past --- maybe they're seeing these same things and trying to pluck him at the nadir of his value. Not to say it's a sure bet, obviously, but a gamble perhaps worth making. And if it were to pay off, it could be to the tune of 2.5-3.5 wins at a position where we desperately need some production.

[scOtt]

Great analysis e16bball. :clap3::thumbsup1:

Fo shizzle to the nizzle! As the kids say.

[scOtt]

Thanks to all for the kind words.

I neglected to mention one other thing in my previous post(s) that could be another source of bounce back production. UZR did still have Bruce rated as a below average defender in RF last season (-4.2 runs) --- but DRS actually had him back to a good bit above average (+5 runs). If his defense could turn out to be a positive asset next season, instead of a clear negative as we've generally been assuming, that would be an added bonus.

It gives me some optimism about the O's front office that we seem to be most prominently linked to Bruce at this point. They've been good at picking out undervalued assets in the past --- maybe they're seeing these same things and trying to pluck him at the nadir of his value. Not to say it's a sure bet, obviously, but a gamble perhaps worth making. And if it were to pay off, it could be to the tune of 2.5-3.5 wins at a position where we desperately need some production.

So then what? Could be most of Chris Davis playing only RF?

[DrungoHazewood]

[CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS POST]

The big issue, then, is whether the BABIP plunge from 2013 to 2015 is real and likely to continue --- or if 2015 was an outlier of fluky bad BABIP luck that only appears to be a continuation of the injury-plagued 2014.

That's tough to know for sure. But two pieces of data I personally like to look at when it comes to determining if BABIP spikes/drops are likely to continue are the hard/soft contact rates and the hit direction distribution. There are two kinds of hitters who usually seem to maintain particularly low BABIP numbers: (1) hard-hitting sluggers who tend to be very pull-heavy, like Mark Teixeira or Carlos Pena; and (2) slap-hitters who don't manage much hard contact, like Brendan Ryan or Sam Fuld. Fairly rare that you see a particularly low BABIP from a player who hits the ball hard a lot AND has the ability to go the other way.

Using this as a (rudimentary, admittedly) guide, I went ahead and compared Jay Bruce's 2015 performance in these two categories to other similar players. Bruce's hard contact rate in 2015 was 35.4% and his opposite-field rate was 22.7%. I took all the seasons over the past 3 years where a player had a hard contact rate of at least 33% AND an opposite-field rate of at least 20%. There were 145 such seasons, including Bruce's 2015.

Of those 145 seasons, the average BABIP among the group was .317 and the median was .316. The bottom quartile was .294 and the bottom decile was .274. Bruce's 2015 BABIP of .251 was the second-lowest among the entire group, and only four other seasons were even below .260.

So what about those other 4 seasons, what happened to them after posting a low BABIP despite hard contact and going the other way? Well...

Anthony Rizzo 2013: .258 BABIP; 2014: .311 BABIP; 2015: .289 BABIP

Mitch Moreland 2013: .255 BABIP; 2014: .315 BABIP; 2015: .317 BABIP

David Ortiz 2014: .256 BABIP; 2015: .264 BABIP

Chris Davis 2014: .242 BABIP; 2015: .319 BABIP

With the exception of a decrepit, 39-year-old Big Papi, these hitters all bounced back in a major way from a BABIP standpoint.

I think it's reasonable to hope that the same may happen for Bruce. He's posted a good BABIP for most of his career, his constituent hitting abilities all seem to have rebounded last year after his injury-plagued 2014, and history shows that guys with his general hitting profile tend to bounce back after abnormally poor BABIP seasons. I still don't think you trade a lot for him, given his salary, but I would certainly be willing to roll the dice on him. I think there's a very real possibility that he may be back to a 115-120 OPS+ hitter over the next two seasons.

Excellent work. One question, forgive me if I missed you already answering: How is it that he was credited with a hard contact rate of 35%, but a line drive rate (as per Fangraphs) of only 18%? A lot of hard-hit flyballs? That would seem to be the case, a lot of flyballs with a fairly large percentage turning into outs. But his HR/FB rate was the lowest of his career. How do you hit a lot of hard-hit flyballs in a fairly hitter-friendly park in Cincy but end up with most of them being outs? It would be interesting to see average hang time data on his batted balls. And I'd also be interested in potential stringer bias, maybe there were others on the Reds who had similar idiosyncrasies.

[Roll Tide]

All I care about is this guy has hit around .220 in his last 1300 ABs. His ops has also been between a high six and low seven over that period.

This is a guy I don't really want ... As a salary dump perhaps. Not for anything of valuable . And get 4-5 million per in addition

[DrungoHazewood]

This be dating myself, but I know it used to be a general rule of thumb that BABIP could be estimated by LD% + .12. Obviously not a hard-and-fast thing, but just an estimator.

Various Reds and their LD rate, BABIP, and (LD%+.12)

Jay Bruce, 18.7%, .251, .307

Billy Hamilton, 19.6%, .264, .316

Bryan Pena, 22.3%, .303, .343

Eugenio Suarez, 20.8%, .341, .328

Joey Votto, 25%, .371, .370

Todd Frazier, 19.1%, .271, .311

Zach Cozart, 19.3%, .258, .313

Brandon Phillips, 24.9%, .315, .369

Marlon Byrd, 20.8%, .297, .328

Ivan Dejesus, 23.8%, .315, .358

Tucker Barnhart, 24.9%, .294, .369

Skip Schumaker, 26.8%, .301, .388

Jason Bourgeois, 20.5%, .275, .325

Kristopher Negron, 17.6%, .186, .296

Reds Overall, 21.5%, .290, .335

NL Overall, 21.2%, .302, .332

AL Overall, 20.6% .296, .326

When I started this I thought maybe there was something here. Now I'm not so sure. The Reds do have a BABIP that seemed low for their LD%, but then when I checked league totals it seems that the BABIP estimator maybe should be updated (at least for 2015) to (LD%+ 0.9). The 1.2 was probably from the era before the recent offensive decline and the increase in shifts.

It is of note that Bruce had the 2nd-lowest LD% and the 2nd-lowest BABIP of any Red with 100+ PAs.

[DrungoHazewood]

All I care about is this guy has hit around .220 in his last 1300 ABs. His ops has also been between a high six and low seven over that period.

This is a guy I don't really want ... As a salary dump perhaps. Not for anything of valuable . And get 4-5 million per in addition

You don't care about the underlying reasons for that and the probability that he'll rebound to his prior level of performance?

[Roll Tide]

You don't care about the underlying reasons for that and the probability that he'll rebound to his prior level of performance?

Again I'm interested as a dump. A filler prospect and 3-5 million per to cover his salary. 1300 abs is not a SSS. I find a better way to spend the 12 million per than taking a chance on a rebound guy.

[SteveO]

I would be fine with taking on Bruce for minor league filler. Issue is according to a friend of mine who lives in Cinci, at this point according to what they have said to local media, they are open to moving him but not simply for tje sake of payroll relief. Reportedly the Reds are hinting they would hold on to him and revisit it at the trade deadline, likely they hope Bruce can have a bounceback 1st half.

Thats the issue with trying to get guys now. If the team your dealing with wants some value back they can always wait and try at the trade deadline

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[oriolesacox]

This is why I love the OH. I can be talked out of a player and then magically talked back into the same player. Good stuff in this thread.

[El Gordo]

If what Crasnick is suggesting is true, that CIN is asking Gausman or Schoop, then forget it.

[DrungoHazewood]

If what Crasnick is suggesting is true, that CIN is asking Gausman or Schoop, then forget it.

For Jay Bruce? I wouldn't do Gausman or Schoop for Bruce if Cincy pitched in $50M of his remaining $14M contract.

[Il BuonO]

If what Crasnick is suggesting is true, that CIN is asking Gausman or Schoop, then forget it.

I'm advocating for him in this thread, but if true they're out of their minds.

[higgybaby]

If they're asking for gausman or schoop they are out of their minds!

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