Bedard

[tim27]

CC could be a GG CFer though.

Maybe. A dog could fly if it had wings but it doesn't. So as long as CC stays in left and Beltran's D doesn't diminish his glove will be worth more than CC.

Crawford will be a Beltran type player though(imo) but i agree he isn't there yet.

Appreciate the imo;)

However, you need to compare the 2 at the same ages.

Here are their OPS's from ages 22-24(Crawford first):

781...791

810...675(Beltran was hurt this year i believe...this was in just over 300 abs)

830...876

So far this year, at age 25, CC has an 838 OPS...Beltran had an 847 OPS in his age 25 season.

There is every reason to think Crawford can approach Beltran status if he can stay healthy.

BTW, i am not sure how the 2 parks compare but KC is a good hitters park, so any power difference may be explained there(not sure about the Trop though)

I wasn't meaning to say that CC isn't going to get better and that one day he might not approach the player Beltran has become (Personally I don't think he will) but simply that as of now it isn't really that close.

[Sports Guy]

Maybe. A dog could fly if it had wings but it doesn't. So as long as CC stays in left and Beltran's D doesn't diminish his glove will be worth more than CC.

Appreciate the imo;)

I wasn't meaning to say that CC isn't going to get better and that one day he might not approach the player Beltran has become (Personally I don't think he will) but simply that as of now it isn't really that close.

Well again, you have to compare them at the same ages. It isn't fair to compare Crawford to a player in his prime versus a player who is very early in his career and a few years away from his prime.

Crawford's numbers getting better every year.

And btw, his speed and arm are plenty to be a GGer in CF. He is a CFer playing LF.

[Leitch]

I think Will Carroll does not really analyze mechanics as you have. He's more into how many innings a pitcher has thrown at certain ages, high pitch count outings, etc.

This is simply not true.

His book, Saving the Pitcher, contains a good bit of research into pitcher mechanics and even argues that pitch counts are overrated.

[rolliefingers]

I think Vlad Guerrero is a better comp in terms of overall profile. Ton of average, zero walks, even fewer strikeouts, ton of speed - the only difference is Crawford's(relative) lack of power, something that can still improve.

His OBP has gotten much better in recent years, and he's still not in his prime. I think his power will improve now that he's hitting #3.

[xKHx]

If we extended Bedard lets say three years wouldn't his worth just be that much more? So I think we should be looking to do both because extending him is a win win situation for the O's.

[Frobby]

This is simply not true.

His book, Saving the Pitcher, contains a good bit of research into pitcher mechanics and even argues that pitch counts are overrated.

I stand corrected (and embarassed).

[DrungoHazewood]

So, Drungo or others,

Would you say I'm off base with this assessment since Will Carroll assesses him as green? I'm curious about other opinions about this observation?

Truthfully, I don't know enough about biomechanics to have an informed opinion on whether Bedard's windup is likely to cause problems. Maybe he's like a less-risky BJ Ryan - everybody knew BJ's delivery would eventually cause problems. It just took the better part of a decade. Bedard may eventually have hip issues, but it might be in 2014.

[Mackus]

If we extended Bedard lets say three years wouldn't his worth just be that much more? So I think we should be looking to do both because extending him is a win win situation for the O's.

Ina vacuum thats a good idea, but its not a great precedent to sign guys to extensions and then immediately trade them.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, but PECOTA is naturally biased against pitchers.

I don't think PECOTA is biased against pitchers, I think it takes a very conservative view of their durability and consistency. Most pitchers do get hurt, or are wildly variable year-to-year, so their predictions work out well. What they don't do is always catch the superhuman outliers who can pitch 220 innings a year, every year for a decade.

[xKHx]

Yea i should have thought more about that one hehe.....

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Will Carroll does not really analyze mechanics as you have. He's more into how many innings a pitcher has thrown at certain ages, high pitch count outings, etc.

You're probably thinking of the guys who came up with the PAP system, Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner. The BP team is quite diverse, with a lot of writers who do very little number crunching.

[tim27]

I don't think PECOTA is biased against pitchers, I think it takes a very conservative view of their durability and consistency. Most pitchers do get hurt, or are wildly variable year-to-year, so their predictions work out well. What they don't do is always catch the superhuman outliers who can pitch 220 innings a year, every year for a decade.

Well I didn't mean biased like Don Imus;) I just meant that it took a dim view of thier prospects because it factors the blowouts and injuries into the weighted mean.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well I didn't mean biased like Don Imus;) I just meant that it took a dim view of thier prospects because it factors the blowouts and injuries into the weighted mean.

We're on the same page...

[Mackus]

Well I didn't mean biased like Don Imus;) I just meant that it took a dim view of thier prospects because it factors the blowouts and injuries into the weighted mean.

Why shouldn't it factor that in? Theres certainly a risk there.

[Flosman]

CC could be a GG CFer though.

Crawford will be a Beltran type player though(imo) but i agree he isn't there yet.

However, you need to compare the 2 at the same ages.

Here are their OPS's from ages 22-24(Crawford first):

781...791

810...675(Beltran was hurt this year i believe...this was in just over 300 abs)

830...876

So far this year, at age 25, CC has an 838 OPS...Beltran had an 847 OPS in his age 25 season.

There is every reason to think Crawford can approach Beltran status if he can stay healthy.

BTW, i am not sure how the 2 parks compare but KC is a good hitters park, so any power difference may be explained there(not sure about the Trop though)

SG I think you have your years mixed up. Beltran's 25 YO season he had a 911 OPS and it was his 4th year where he hit over 20 Hrs. Beltran had proven to be a better player when healthy than CC has been thus far. My point about the numbers is guys who have 5+ years in the majors at 25 YO if they are going to be elite players they usually already are by thier 5th season. I would love to have him but I stand by he is just a very good player not an elite player.

BTW for Leitch the only thing comparable between Vlad and CC is that they play baseball and both are corner outfielders. I am talking about at the same point in thier careers also, not CC today vs. Vlad in his prime. CC is simply not nearly the player Vlad was and it is not even remotely close.