Joey Rickard is the real deal

[Can_of_corn]

I think I'd wait a little bit before drawing firm conclusions. Rickard has 64 MLB PAs. Yes, I know about stabilization rates.

I think it would be fairly remarkable if his 12-13% walk rate in the minors translated to 3% in the majors. Brian Roberts walked 12-13% of the time in the minors and ended up around 9-10% in the majors. 3% is Jonathan Schoop. Or Mariano Duncan. You basically can't go lower than 3%, that's like the rate you get when you're a pitcher hitting and you just decide you're not ever swinging.

Schoop walked a lot more than 3% in the minors.

[DrungoHazewood]

Schoop walked a lot more than 3% in the minors.

About 7.5%, compared to 12.5% for Rickard. If Rickard's rate falls off similarly to Schoop he'll be around 6-7%. That's not the 3% CaptainRebeard fears.

[DrungoHazewood]

He really does recall Roberts up there, minus the pop. Just quiet, deep ABs.

Rickard had more minor league power (read:ISO) than Roberts.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Last bit of Rickard data. I had to download data from fangraphs and calculate it myself, I wish they had it on their website: Z-Swing minus O-Swing. They've referenced it in articles before. Conceptually, if you want a stat to approximate plate discipline, it's ability to discern balls from strikes and then swing at more strikes than you do balls. So, low = bad and high = good. Here's where Rickard stacks up:

Z-Swing minus O-Swing

1. Rickard: 17.2%

2. Infante: 20.4%

3. Kipnis: 23.4%

4. Iglesias: 23.6%

5. Mercer: 24.1%

Not...great. He's certainly at the extreme end of the spectrum so far through the season. Not a death sentence, but not...great.

While this is an interesting data point, I'd be interested to see those players' outside of the zone contact rates. Since these numbers are binary (in or out) it makes it difficult to discern the true nature of what's going on. As others have alluded to, this could be attributable to Joey fouling off a lot of borderline pitches to protect at two strikes. The high contact rate on OZ swings would support this.

The data doesn't differentiate between swings at balls close enough to be ring up on potentially and those at a batter's feet.

[BohKnowsBmore]

At this point in the season I'll take what I see from his AB over SSS data. Maybe after 150 PA I'll glance at the data if he isn't still hitting.

Right. Regardless of what the data say at this point, I don't get the sense at all when I watch him that he has a poor command of the strike zone. I expect the walks will come.

[DrungoHazewood]

Right. Regardless of what the data say at this point, I don't get the sense at all when I watch him that he has a poor command of the strike zone. I expect the walks will come.

So all of the Fangraphs projections translate his minor league numbers to an 8% walk rate in the majors. Like I said, 3% would be very surprising.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think I'd wait a little bit before drawing firm conclusions. Rickard has 64 MLB PAs. Yes, I know about stabilization rates.

I think it would be fairly remarkable if his 12-13% walk rate in the minors translated to 3% in the majors. Brian Roberts walked 12-13% of the time in the minors and ended up around 9-10% in the majors. 3% is Jonathan Schoop. Or Mariano Duncan. You basically can't go lower than 3%, that's like the rate you get when you're a pitcher hitting and you just decide you're not ever swinging.

I am not drawing any firm conclusions right now - the only one I have presented is that 20% K rate + .350 BABIP = .280 AVG and that's just math. I agree that a 3% walk rate would be extremely low given his minor league rates. I think he'll do better than that, but I wouldn't be surprised by something in the 5-6% range. He didn't walk much in spring training either, and spring training BB rates do have some meaning, so we are slowly approaching that point where you can start to take notice. Projection systems have him at 8% BB%, which I think is fair.

Steamer and ZIPS combined have him at .254/.322/.345, with 8.0 BB%, 20.5 K%, and .316 BABIP. That's only good for a 83 wRC+. To be a league average hitter, he needs a tad more power than the projection systems give him, better BABIP, and at least hold those projected K/BB rates. I think all of that is perfectly reasonable to expect of him, particularly the BABIP, the only component that I have concern about is the BB%.

[SteveO]

I am not expecting Rickard to continue to hit at the level he has. There is enough data to suggest some kind of regression would be likely. I do think however he can be a productive player nonetheless.

Some guys though just outperform what the scouting report and talent suggests they should. Usually those are guys who demonstrate the qualities that Rickard has to date. No problem with rolling with for now.

[bobmc]

He joins CD and others with the Gilded Sombrero last night vs. KC hurlers.

[Bahama O's Fan]

so no hit tonight, but gave us a four run inning.

[Aristotelian]

I am not expecting Rickard to continue to hit at the level he has. There is enough data to suggest some kind of regression would be likely. I do think however he can be a productive player nonetheless.

Some guys though just outperform what the scouting report and talent suggests they should. Usually those are guys who demonstrate the qualities that Rickard has to date. No problem with rolling with for now.

I am sure his avg will fall off, but I could see him maintaining his obp. Only two walks so far, but walks will come with his approach.

[SteveO]

I am sure his avg will fall off, but I could see him maintaining his obp. Only two walks so far, but walks will come with his approach.

Kind what I am going for also

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[The Wedge]

Real deal, flash in the pan, whichever, but that kid really reminds me of pre-Super Soldier serum Steve Rogers.

[Filmstudy]

I've been progressively concerned with Rickard's strike zone judgment this season to the point where it's significant right now.

In the 1980s, you could be Floyd Rayford or Larry Sheets and get away with lousy plate discipline for one entire good year, but information travels more quickly and impactfully today and he'll be facing many fewer good pitches to hit sooner. On top of his low walk rate is the fact he's getting very lucky at the plate with a high number of infield hits and bloops. With reversion to mean luck, I expect his BABIP to drop significantly.

Curtis Goodwin came to the majors with a huge splash in 1995. He went 21 for 43 (.488) in his first 11 major league games including an amazing 10 multi-hit performances. Goodwin was 22, LHB, a plus centerfielder with speed, and he appeared to have the league figured out if you could just overlook the fact he'd drawn only 1 major league walk to go with those 43 ABs. Walk rates for the league are down approximately 20% from 1995-2015, so Godwin's judgment was more of an outlier. Rickard's minor league record projects to more walks, but it looks to me like his judgment at the ML level is a function of how overmatched he appears as a hitter by ML pitching. Rickard also has not been nearly as good.

Goodwin played just 1 season with the Orioles (.633 OPS) and had a .307 OBP with a .609 OPS (58 OPS+) in a 431-game career.

To avoid Goodwinitis, Rickard needs to do what every ML hitter should do and what every marginal major leaguer must do:

--swing at fewer pitched outside the strike zone

--make better contact on his swings inside the strike zone

Said otherwise, this problem won't be fixed by above-average contact on balls outside the strike zone.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've been progressively concerned with Rickard's strike zone judgment this season to the point where it's significant right now.

In the 1980s, you could be Floyd Rayford or Larry Sheets and get away with lousy plate discipline for one entire good year, but information travels more quickly and impactfully today and he'll be facing many fewer good pitches to hit sooner. On top of his low walk rate is the fact he's getting very lucky at the plate with a high number of infield hits and bloops. With reversion to mean luck, I expect his BABIP to drop significantly.

Curtis Goodwin came to the majors with a huge splash in 1995. He went 21 for 43 (.488) in his first 11 major league games including an amazing 10 multi-hit performances. Goodwin was 22, LHB, a plus centerfielder with speed, and he appeared to have the league figured out if you could just overlook the fact he'd drawn only 1 major league walk to go with those 43 ABs. Walk rates for the league are down approximately 20% from 1995-2015, so Godwin's judgment was more of an outlier. Rickard's minor league record projects to more walks, but it looks to me like his judgment at the ML level is a function of how overmatched he appears as a hitter by ML pitching. Rickard also has not been nearly as good.

Goodwin played just 1 season with the Orioles (.633 OPS) and had a .307 OBP with a .609 OPS (58 OPS+) in a 431-game career.

To avoid Goodwinitis, Rickard needs to do what every ML hitter should do and what every marginal major leaguer must do:

--swing at fewer pitched outside the strike zone

--make better contact on his swings inside the strike zone

Said otherwise, this problem won't be fixed by above-average contact on balls outside the strike zone.

You do understand that Rickard walked about 12% of the time in the minors, right? And that Curtis Goodwin walked in 8.7% of minor league PAs. Rayford 8.2%. Sheets 8.8%. Rickard will probably have the highest major league walk rate of that group, and probably by a substantial margin.

Also, MLB's 2014-2015 walk rate is lower than any season since 1968. There were more walks in Rayford's and Sheets' and Goodwin's eras than today. So far in '16 we've seen a blip, with more walks through about 1/10th of the season, but we'll see if that holds, probably not.