The Defensive Regression

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I was reading an ESPN article and the author stated that our defense has been below average "as expected". I understood that with Trumbo/Kim we would regress a good amount defensively, but to go from one of the game's best to now below average, what else is at play?

Do we think Hardy's health should bolster its consistency in the second half? Has Jones regressed? Just curious here. I'd expect our infield to be one of the best in the majors..

[canonfaz]

Without looking it up, I would say the following are contributors:

* Slight Hardy and Jones regression

* Hardy not being healthy

* The outfield. (Trumbo has been well below average IMO, Kim has been decent, Rickard has been both good and bad).

[Redskins Rick]

I am a huge Jones fan, and I know he has been nicked, but this has not been one of his stellar defensive years, not that he hasn't made some good plays, which he has, but he has looked bad at times too.

[Phantom]

I was reading an ESPN article and the author stated that our defense has been below average "as expected". I understood that with Trumbo/Kim we would regress a good amount defensively, but to go from one of the game's best to now below average, what else is at play?

We were the 15th best defense in the MLB last year.

[Babypowder]

This regression has been happening over the last 2 seasons, not just this one. The entire outfield has been bad this year, and that's the biggest drag. Hardy being hurt and Flaherty not as effective, Alvarez getting some starts on defense and Schoop (while still solidly average) taking steps back from his rookie season have also contributed.

By and large, it's the outfield. Every guy who has played regularly has been bad this season according to the metrics.

[Frobby]

Per UZR, the infield is +8.6, while the outfield is -21.7.

Jones -7.6

Rickard -7.5

Trumbo -3.8

Kim -1.8

Reimold -1.4

Flaherty +0.4 (LOL, the one guy who doesn't play the OF regularly)

I don't necessarily buy into all those, but the overall number for the group makes sense to me.

[El Gordo]

Per UZR, the infield is +8.6, while the outfield is -21.7.

Jones -7.6

Rickard -7.5

Trumbo -3.8

Kim -1.8

Reimold -1.4

Flaherty +0.4 (LOL, the one guy who doesn't play the OF regularly)

I don't necessarily buy into all those, but the overall number for the group makes sense to me.

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

[Phantom]

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

Yeah that's not how statistics work though, especially in small samples.

[Can_of_corn]

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

Jones is being graded as a center fielder and Trumbo is being graded as a right fielder.

I will say to my eyes Jones is better in center than Trumbo is in right.

[Frobby]

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

For one thing, it's compared to other people at your position. A below overage CF will have a lower UZR than an average corner OF. But aside from that, I'd certainly say Jones is better in CF than Trumbo is in RF.

[El Gordo]

For one thing, it's compared to other people at your position. A below overage CF will have a lower UZR than an average corner OF. But aside from that, I'd certainly say Jones is better in CF than Trumbo is in RF.

So Trumbo is a better RF than AJ is a CF? Still hard to believe.

[Frobby]

So Trumbo is a better RF than AJ is a CF? Still hard to believe.

That's what UZR is saying -- and that's why you can only trust defensive metrics so far. I suppose it is possible that since CF have many more potential chances, it's easier to rack up a higher or lower than average number. E.g., let's say Jones only gets to 90% of the balls that an average CF would reach, and Trumbo only gets to 90% of the balls that an average RF would reach, but twice as many balls go to CF than to RF. In that case, Jones' negative UZR will be twice what Trumbo's is.

[Phantom]

So Trumbo is a better RF than AJ is a CF? Still hard to believe.

All the statistic says is that AJ has turned more outs into hits compared to the rest of the leagues CFs than Trumbbo has compared to the rest of the leagues RFs so far this season.

[LookitsPuck]

Thing about Jones is he's lost a step...and he plays pretty far in. Balls that are hit over your hit are pretty hard to track down compared to coming in on balls.

The defensive regression isn't a surprise. When you're running guys like Rickard, Kim, Trumbo out in the field with regularity and you were missing Hardy for an extended period of time...this should surprise nobody. And Schoop seems to be off/on this year. Wasn't never a believer in his range, but his arm and glove is special.

[Frobby]

All the statistic says is that AJ has turned more outs into hits compared to the rest of the leagues CFs than Trumbbo has compared to the rest of the leagues RFs so far this season.

Yes, but that seems a little hard to believe based on the eye test.