If The O's Play the Wild Card Game, Who Do You Want to Pitch?

[FlipTheBird]

Slim. We have every reason to think that the wild card will come down to the last 1-3 games. We end our season on the road in Toronto and New York. It's not likely we'll be able to coast through those games.

I don't know. With the couple day break, you can't see them either having a spot (or being ruled out) by game 161?

[Aristotelian]

So just because Saunders won one game in 2012, the playoffs are random? I agree much of baseball is out of anyone's control. Luck was on our side in 2012, not so much in '97 or 2014 ALCS. However, I would strongly disagree that Miley or Saunders would give you an even 50% chance to win any single playoff game. If you pitched them 100 times in a row, you maybe win 40. They give you a good chance to win, but not anywhere close to 50%. Why would you start somebody like that, given a choice?

[Aristotelian]

Oops, the above was meant to be in response to weams.

Miley is a lot like Joe Saunders. No, it's not like a probability question when you have only one game. If they are a pitcher, they have a 50% chance of being on the winning squad.

[oriole]

Joe Saunders.

You beat me to it.

I guess Wade Miley would be the 2016 equivalent but unless there's a significant turn around...nope.

[Ruzious]

Gausman. He's got the best health and the best stuff.

At this point, Tillman is just a sentimental choice, and Bundy's a 5 inning pitcher.

[Bradysburns]

Make your pick and state your reasons below.

Gausman. It's an intuition thing. (See, I'm learning from Buck.)

[FlipTheBird]

So just because Saunders won one game in 2012, the playoffs are random? I agree much of baseball is out of anyone's control. Luck was on our side in 2012, not so much in '97 or 2014 ALCS. However, I would strongly disagree that Miley or Saunders would give you an even 50% chance to win any single playoff game. If you pitched them 100 times in a row, you maybe win 40. They give you a good chance to win, but not anywhere close to 50%. Why would you start somebody like that, given a choice?

That'd be great question for Buck, since Saunders actually had terrible numbers against the Rangers that year... but was passable that night.

Let's face it: The Orioles have terrible starting pitching. No matter who they face, WC game or full series, they'll be at a disadvantage there and have to hope for hot hands/luck. But that's baseball. They did sweep Scherzer, Verlander and Price in 2014.

[allquixotic]

With two teams tied for the division lead and the O's just one game out, it's really a toss-up who will win the AL East. It could come down to a review on a home run (by any of the three teams), or a lucky bounce on an infield squibbler, or a walk-off wild pitch with the bases loaded. Who knows?

At this point, the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays should all be very seriously considering what they'll do for the Wild Card Game. After all, two of these three teams will likely be playing against each other in it.

How would you line up our rotation and the availability of our bullpen for the wild card game, and who would you start?

For me, I'd go with the following:

• Innings 1 through (3 to 5): Gausman -- let him go 5 if effective and pitch-efficient, otherwise use the early hook before he has a chance to blow it
  
• Innings (4 to 6) through 7: Bundy if available; if not, Givens; and Brach / O'Day if necessary (assuming O'Day is available and healthy)
  
• Finishing the game (innings 8 and 9): Britton
  

I might even consider pitching Britton in the 7th inning if the guy who starts the inning gets a guy into scoring position.

All of this assumes a fairly close game with the score either tied, or the winning team up by 1-2 runs until the late game. If the O's appear to be winning comfortably, I might just bring in Britton for the 9th only, so he doesn't get worn out by an extended outing before the ALDS.

[atomic]

With two teams tied for the division lead and the O's just one game out, it's really a toss-up who will win the AL East. It could come down to a review on a home run (by any of the three teams), or a lucky bounce on an infield squibbler, or a walk-off wild pitch with the bases loaded. Who knows?

At this point, the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays should all be very seriously considering what they'll do for the Wild Card Game. After all, two of these three teams will likely be playing against each other in it.

How would you line up our rotation and the availability of our bullpen for the wild card game, and who would you start?

For me, I'd go with the following:

• Innings 1 through (3 to 5): Gausman -- let him go 5 if effective and pitch-efficient, otherwise use the early hook before he has a chance to blow it
• Innings (4 to 6) through 7: Bundy if available; if not, Givens; and Brach / O'Day if necessary (assuming O'Day is available and healthy)
• Finishing the game (innings 8 and 9): Britton

I might even consider pitching Britton in the 7th inning if the guy who starts the inning gets a guy into scoring position.

All of this assumes a fairly close game with the score either tied, or the winning team up by 1-2 runs until the late game. If the O's appear to be winning comfortably, I might just bring in Britton for the 9th only, so he doesn't get worn out by an extended outing before the ALDS.

You wouldn't want to pitch both of them in case you win you will need them in the other playoff games. I would let Gausman goes as far as he can go assuming he is still pitching as well as he is now. Of course if Gausman pitched the last game of the season that would not work. I think if you get to that point then you decide on whom i s doing well at that time and who is rested. Also if you clinch a certain position with two games to play you might start Tyler Wilson and Mike WRight the last two games. Hard to guess right now.

[Frobby]

I expect Price to pitch for Boston and Happ for Toronto.

[Aristotelian]

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/154564-If-The-O-s-Play-the-Wild-Card-Game-Who-Do-You-Want-to-Pitch

[allquixotic]

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/154564-If-The-O-s-Play-the-Wild-Card-Game-Who-Do-You-Want-to-Pitch

Whoops, missed that thread!

[DirtyBird]

This is pointless. We are winning the division.

[allquixotic]

That'd be great question for Buck, since Saunders actually had terrible numbers against the Rangers that year... but was passable that night.

Let's face it: The Orioles have terrible starting pitching. No matter who they face, WC game or full series, they'll be at a disadvantage there and have to hope for hot hands/luck. But that's baseball. They did sweep Scherzer, Verlander and Price in 2014.

I wouldn't say the O's have terrible starting pitching. Some of our starters have been terrible, but Gausman has been okay for most of the season and excellent of late; Bundy was in the bullpen until recently, and has made some excellent starts; Tillman was awesome until he got hurt; and Ubaldo has been very good in a SSS.

If you think the O 's have terrible starting pitching, you must be ignoring the accomplishments of those four guys, and focusing solely on Miley and Gallardo. And of those two, I'd mainly call Miley terrible and Gallardo just below average. So does one bad pitcher ruin the whole batch? If so, you might as well call every starting rotation in the majors terrible, because I don't think any manager would candidly tell you that all five or six of his starting pitchers are ideally fit for that role.

[FlipTheBird]

I wouldn't say the O's have terrible starting pitching. Some of our starters have been terrible, but Gausman has been okay for most of the season and excellent of late; Bundy was in the bullpen until recently, and has made some excellent starts; Tillman was awesome until he got hurt; and Ubaldo has been very good in a SSS.

If you think the O 's have terrible starting pitching, you must be ignoring the accomplishments of those four guys, and focusing solely on Miley and Gallardo. And of those two, I'd mainly call Miley terrible and Gallardo just below average. So does one bad pitcher ruin the whole batch? If so, you might as well call every starting rotation in the majors terrible, because I don't think any manager would candidly tell you that all five or six of his starting pitchers are ideally fit for that role.

Ubaldo's little 2 week run of success doesn't erase how awful he was for the entirety of the season before that. I'm glad he's doing well, too, but his 2016 as a whole remains listed under "awful." Sure, he's helped them win a couple games recently, but he lost a bunch in the first half because of how poorly he was pitching.

Gallardo has labored to a 5.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He rarely gets beyond the fifth. He's been terrible.

Miley, we're on the same page with.

That's 3/5, or 3/6 if we're counting everyone currently starting. And even the guys that have pitched fairly well haven't totally offset the bad. The O's entered Sept. with a team ERA above 5 for starting pitchers. That's terrible. If you think otherwise, you're being naive.