I looked, and then I cringed.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nick's oWAR is .6, Trumbo oWAR is 2.5

Nick's dWAR is .3, Trumbo dWAR is -2.0

Do the match, and Trumo is .2 better than Nick. LOL

Of course, I know he isn't but, what the heck.

I think some of us fans while still loving Nick, was concerned about a 4 year deal.

I beg of you, don't use oWAR and dWAR. Use component runs above average, and total WAR. Because someone is going to add the first two numbers together and double count the positional adjustment.

[Aristotelian]

When we are smart and play Trumbo at DH he has way more value than Nicky (wOBA .321 vs .355).

Good point. Although it forces Pedro to the bench, so his added value is not that much. Which is why you would have a positional adjustment hit. Ideally Trumbo is our DH and we spend Pedro's $5M on something that isn't redundant.

[Frobby]

Why would you assume that defensive performances would be very consistent year-to-year? Pretty much nothing else in baseball is. I assume that if George Brett can hit .390 one year and .314 the next, it's not remarkable that he could be a +9 and -1 fielder those same years. Or if you prefer and outfielder, one year Nate McLouth hit .190, another he hit .276. One year he was a +0 fielder, another a -23.

I think this is the crux of the issue. You very often hear managers or announcers say things like "defense never slumps," or "no matter how you are hitting, you can bring your defense every day." And watching baseball regularly, it feels like there is a lot of truth to those statements. Offensive slumps are very common, and a wide variation in offensive performance from year to year is pretty common. But if I had no numbers to look at all, I'd say that defense is quite a bit more consistent than offense. And yet, the metrics seem to say the exact opposite is the case. So, you can either believe that your eyes are deceiving you because the numbers say so, or you can believe that there is some fundamental flaw with the numbers. I don't think that those two options are mutually exclusive, either -- perhaps it is a little of both. I think with Statcast, there will be defensive metrics evolving in which I have a great deal more confidence than the current numbers.

[24fps]

I think Nick got a lot of heat, when he was trying to come back from injuries and not 100% and the OH can be a fickle bunch.

When the subject is Nick Markakis, fickle cuts both ways.

[atomic]

Why would you assume that defensive performances would be very consistent year-to-year? Pretty much nothing else in baseball is. I assume that if George Brett can hit .390 one year and .314 the next, it's not remarkable that he could be a +9 and -1 fielder those same years. Or if you prefer and outfielder, one year Nate McLouth hit .190, another he hit .276. One year he was a +0 fielder, another a -23.

Yeah hitting is less consistent. But you don't see the stats vary as much for infielders. Look at JJ Hardy's defensive metrics. The ones where his Defensive WAR is higher are usually the seasons he played more games. Than compare them to Mike Trout. Very good one year. Then bad 2 years than good again for 2 years. It seems to be like that for every outfielder. And Catcher stats vary a lot from year as well.

[Larry18]

If that's the case then why was he a -6 by the same measure last year? He's had a 16 run swing this year.

IDK, maybe having neck surgery had something to do with it.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think this is the crux of the issue. You very often hear managers or announcers say things like "defense never slumps," or "no matter how you are hitting, you can bring your defense every day." And watching baseball regularly, it feels like there is a lot of truth to those statements. Offensive slumps are very common, and a wide variation in offensive performance from year to year is pretty common. But if I had no numbers to look at all, I'd say that defense is quite a bit more consistent than offense. And yet, the metrics seem to say the exact opposite is the case. So, you can either believe that your eyes are deceiving you because the numbers say so, or you can believe that there is some fundamental flaw with the numbers. I don't think that those two options are mutually exclusive, either -- perhaps it is a little of both. I think with Statcast, there will be defensive metrics evolving in which I have a great deal more confidence than the current numbers.

I think the announcers who say that are just repeating cliches and don't even think about whether it's true. If most offensive metrics that anyone paid attention to were crude and subjective announcers would scoff at the idea that Darin Erstad could hit .355 one year and .258 the next.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah hitting is less consistent.

How do you know this to be true?

[sportsfan8703]

IDK, maybe having neck surgery had something to do with it.

This is why DD stayed away. I wish we could stop being an obsessive ex on this site and let Markakis go.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is why DD stayed away. I wish we could stop being an obsessive ex on this site and let Markakis go.

Just part of being a fan.

Steinbrenner: You are Mr. and Mrs. Costanza?

Frank (yelling): What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?!? He had 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs last year, he's got a rocket for an arm, you don't know what the hell you're doin'!!

Steinbrenner: Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people love Ken Phelps' bat. They kept saying 'Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps'.

[atomic]

How do you know this to be true?

Tell me why Trout DWar is so much better in 2012 over 2014. In 2014 he had less errors, more put outs and more assists. When he played center field in 2014 he average 2.6 Put outs per game. In 2012 he averaged 2.4 put outs per game. And in 2012 the Defensive Metrics say he is a bad Left Fielder but a great center fielder.

[DrungoHazewood]

Tell me why Trout DWar is so much better in 2012 over 2014. In 2014 he had less errors, more put outs and more assists. When he played center field in 2014 he average 2.6 Put outs per game. In 2012 he averaged 2.4 put outs per game. And in 2012 the Defensive Metrics say he is a bad Left Fielder but a great center fielder.

How many balls came his way at each position and year? How many innings at each spot? He's only played 700 innings in LF in his MLB career, almost 6000 in center. There will be more noise and variability in the smaller samples. His career UZR in left is much better than in center. It's fairly obvious in retrospect that he's not a +20 or +30 CFer, but these things take time to smooth out. 350 innings in LF, like he had in '12 is about the same as 150 PAs. You can find 150 PAs where David Newhan hit .400, and 150 PAs where Nelson Cruz hit .188.

Summing up: Defense isn't consistent, and metrics are subject to noise especially in smallish samples. And even acknowledging that swings of 20 runs on defense are uncommon, while they happen all the time with pitching and hitting.

[Pheasants]

So maybe the question should be not is Trumbo better than Markakis, but why did we sign Alvarez when we had both Davis and Trumbo? Having three IB-DH types meant one had to be out of position. Or, would Markakis have been better than Pedro?

[Can_of_corn]

So maybe the question should be not is Trumbo better than Markakis, but why did we sign Alvarez when we had both Davis and Trumbo? Having three IB-DH types meant one had to be out of position. Or, would Markakis have been better than Pedro?

Because Fowler backed out.

[Redskins Rick]

So maybe the question should be not is Trumbo better than Markakis, but why did we sign Alvarez when we had both Davis and Trumbo? Having three IB-DH types meant one had to be out of position. Or, would Markakis have been better than Pedro?

The goal I believe was to upgrade COF and DH.

Fowler, Kim and Trumbo was expected to do that.

As it turned out. Fowler jumped ship. DD & Buck decided Trumbo was a good enough COF to sign El Toro for his bat and stick him in the DH spot, since he was cheap, ala Cruz in 2014.

IMO