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Let's not waste any more of Arrieta's time at Frederick


Frobby

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OK, I started this thread, now I'm going to weigh in after reading some very insightful comments.

1. Let's avoid the hyperbole, shall we? It is not "vital" to promote these guys the instant you can, nor is it "irresponsible" to keep them in Fredrick a little longer than absolutely necessary. The decision about how soon to move them is a matter about which people can disagree, but now vs. June 25 is not going to make or break these guys' careers or materially alter their timetable for development.

2. I don't discount the objective of winning the first-half title. That's a team goal, not just for these two guys, but for everyone including those who are sure to stay in Frederick all year. We do want our young palyer to get in the habit of winning. To me, winning the first-half title is a laudable goal.

3. Mr. Vencill's point about the presence of a 17-year catching coordinator in Frederick is very important. Good enough reason to keep Wieters in Frederick for another 5-6 weeks.

4. I'm still inclined to move Arrieta now. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he could jump right to AAA without missing a beat.

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I agree that Wieters and Arrieta have both posted very impressive stat lines, but that doesn't mean that we know everything just by judging a stat line.

Let's take Arrieta for instance.

His stat line is great except for his BB rate. Maybe they want him to improve his control a bit.

Maybe he's working with the pitching coach and they are trying to alter something in his mechanics and they don't want him to be promoted to work on this with a different pitching coach.

Maybe he's been tardy several times and they want to make a point.

Maybe there's no spot currently open in the starting rotation in Bowie and they will promote Arrieta to AA when they promote Tillman to AAA.

Who knows?

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OK, I started this thread, now I'm going to weigh in after reading some very insightful comments.

1. Let's avoid the hyperbole, shall we? It is not "vital" to promote these guys the instant you can, nor is it "irresponsible" to keep them in Fredrick a little longer than absolutely necessary. The decision about how soon to move them is a matter about which people can disagree, but now vs. June 25 is not going to make or break these guys' careers or materially alter their timetable for development.

2. I don't discount the objective of winning the first-half title. That's a team goal, not just for these two guys, but for everyone including those who are sure to stay in Frederick all year. We do want our young palyer to get in the habit of winning. To me, winning the first-half title is a laudable goal.

3. Mr. Vencill's point about the presence of a 17-year catching coordinator in Frederick is very important. Good enough reason to keep Wieters in Frederick for another 5-6 weeks.

4. I'm still inclined to move Arrieta now. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he could jump right to AAA without missing a beat.

These are interesting points you raise, Frobby (nothing unusual there).

We see the jump from AA to the majors a whole lot more than the jump from A to AAA. It seems that BOTH of these guys could jump to AAA -- I don't know about not missing a beat, but I'd say with minimal risk of being overwhelmed in a manner that might shatter their confidence. At the same time, the benefits you note with respect to Wieters staying in Frederick another 5 weeks apply almost as much to Arrieta (admittedly not the 17-year catching coordinator part). So one possible way to get the best of both worlds is to wait until the All Star break and then promote both to Norfolk. That would give good incubation time at Frederick and still get them on a very fast track to the majors.

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Frederick's been to the playoffs the last three years and won the Mills Cup in 2005 and last year. That last sentence of yours doesn't make much sense to me.

My bad, I forgot they have been that good three years running. :o Still my point was that the entire system outside of Frederick has been pretty bad at winning games for quite a while.

Good point about Tommy Thompson.

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I agree that Wieters and Arrieta have both posted very impressive stat lines, but that doesn't mean that we know everything just by judging a stat line.

Let's take Arrieta for instance.

His stat line is great except for his BB rate. Maybe they want him to improve his control a bit.

Maybe he's working with the pitching coach and they are trying to alter something in his mechanics and they don't want him to be promoted to work on this with a different pitching coach.

Maybe he's been tardy several times and they want to make a point.

Maybe there's no spot currently open in the starting rotation in Bowie and they will promote Arrieta to AA when they promote Tillman to AAA.

Who knows?

Why does the BB rate need to improve at single A before you move him?

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Why does the BB rate need to improve at single A before you move him?

I agree with you here. His BB rate could be a little better, but when you are allowing fewer than .5 hits per inning, it hardly matters. He can work on that at Bowie.

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I was having the thought that someone mentioned above about lack of room for Arrieta at Bowie, but our pitching at Norfolk sure provides room for Tilman and/or even Hernandez. I think it's time to send someone up.

Drungo made a good argument sometime over the winter, I believe, about the number of pitches in an arm and that it doesn't make sense to waste them before the player gets to the majors.

But maybe they are waiting for Bascom. He goes to Frederick and Arrieta goes up.

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Anyone like the idea of having Arietta and Wieters taking the same route to the bigs? Is there any actual value to having them "grow up" together?

There should be. Also, I would like to see Tillman spend the majority of the year at Bowie so once Wieters moves up, the three of them should ascend relatively together.

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I think when McPhail said in an interview this year that he didn't mind taking guys straight from AA to the pros he was indicating that Wieters last stop would be Bowie, and that he wouldn't spend much time there if he was "getting it." So I am not worried really by the lack of promotion. It make take the organization awhile to promote them to AA but I think if there is success at Bowie that it won't be long until the Majors.

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Count me in the pro - move 'em up now group. If they were Tillman's age, I'd agree with keeping them at Frederick, but these guys are fully grown men playing against boys. They probably should have started them in Bowie, to begin with.

It's obvious they don't belong in the kiddie pool. It's time for adult swim.

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Anyone like the idea of having Arietta and Wieters taking the same route to the bigs? Is there any actual value to having them "grow up" together?

I was thinking the exact same thing and reading the thread waiting for someone else to point it out. This seems like it could be a huge advantage for these guys. They get a head start and get to know one another's strengths. I also agree that getting Tillman involved in that could be great.

Isn't it great to have so much success in the minors that we don't have to quibble about tiny 40 man roster moves that have no impact on the success potential of the Orioles! We are going to have to shed some dead weight eventually but it will be replaced with quality.

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I agree with you here. His BB rate could be a little better, but when you are allowing fewer than .5 hits per inning, it hardly matters. He can work on that at Bowie.

It is almost as if people want perfection out of these guys before they move up.

Arrieta needs to improve his BB rate and GB/Fb ratio...But right now, he isn't forced to work on those things as much because he is dominating.

Its the same as Wieters...People said that he struggled...Well, he did go through a rough patch..So what? Every player does...Do you expect Wieters to bat 1000?

He is destroying that league..OPS over 1000, BA around 340.

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It is almost as if people want perfection out of these guys before they move up.

Arrieta needs to improve his BB rate and GB/Fb ratio...But right now, he isn't forced to work on those things as much because he is dominating.

Its the same as Wieters...People said that he struggled...Well, he did go through a rough patch..So what? Every player does...Do you expect Wieters to bat 1000?

He is destroying that league..OPS over 1000, BA around 340.

The O's obviously wanted to start these guys off at a level where they would experience quick success. They've certainly done that. It probably helps some of the younger prospects to see just how far they need to go to reach the level Wieters and Arrieta are at, too. I'm sure Rowell can learn a lot by watching Wieters' approach at the plate, for example.

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