Poll: What should the Orioles do with Trumbo?

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

It means the season was an outlier, and he shouldn't be paid based on it, but on his career stats, taking into consideration that he'll be 31 next season (which means something unless he's juicing).He's averaged 1.6 fWAR over his career since becoming an everyday player. Pay him based on that.

I think I'm with you on the conclusion, I just disagree about how likely it is that Trumbo repeats his performance. I think last year might have become an outlier because of some improvements that Trumbo made that allowed him to hit for more consistent power than before. And if Trumbo does return to the O's, I would predict he'd have another season with more HRs than he ever hit before Baltimore. 

But I do think that 2016 will likely wind up Trumbo's best offensive year, and that the cost for Trumbo is not as wise an investment as some others we could make with the same cash. 

[Number5]

21 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Yup, highest fly ball percentage and highest hard hit percentage. No reason to believe he'll do that again. That's why it was a mirage. Poof! It's gone.

Why not?  The guy has always hit the ball hard.  It isn't like he was always a punch-and-judy hitter before.

[Can_of_corn]

I think the main point that folks need to remember is that even with a career year at the end he was basically a league average player. 

[Dark Helmet]

2 hours ago, Moondoggie said:

He had averaged 26.2 home runs per year prior to 2016 and his 47 took it to 29.6 over his six year career. He hadn't hit 30 since 2013. So I don't think it's a lock he would hit 35, even playing in Baltimore. Hell, he might hit 60. But he also may hit 25 to 30. To make a blanket statement that he's a lock to hit a certain amount is wishful thinking. Chris Davis isn't a lock to hit that many.

His 162 game average is 34 for his career. He only played 88 games in 2014. Also, he had to adjust a new league and play in bigger parks in the NL west. He was then traded to Seattle, a division full of big parks...still hit 13 in only 96 games. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Moondoggie said:

You realize he only hit 22 in 142 games the year before that, right? And last year was the only time he reached 35.

All you have to do is look at the numbers. He had 100 less ABs in 2015 and only 362 ABs in 2014. He hit 34 HRs in 2013 and 32 HRs in 2012 hitting in a MUCH worse lineup. So yes, I DO REALIZE what I said and I also realize that what you said still makes absolutely no sense. So there's that...

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, Moondoggie said:

He had averaged 26.2 home runs per year prior to 2016 and his 47 took it to 29.6 over his six year career. He hadn't hit 30 since 2013. So I don't think it's a lock he would hit 35, even playing in Baltimore. Hell, he might hit 60. But he also may hit 25 to 30. To make a blanket statement that he's a lock to hit a certain amount is wishful thinking. Chris Davis isn't a lock to hit that many.

Nothing in baseball is guaranteed.  However, there's a world of difference between playing in Baltimore and playing in Anaheim or Seattle.    I like Trumbo's chances of averaging 35 homers a season for the next three years if he's an Oriole and he's healthy.     Then the question becomes, how valuable is that, if the guy has a mediocre OBP and does not bring any significant defense value.

 

[Can_of_corn]

 

[Moondoggie]

17 hours ago, Dark Helmet said:

His 162 game average is 34 for his career. He only played 88 games in 2014. Also, he had to adjust a new league and play in bigger parks in the NL west. He was then traded to Seattle, a division full of big parks...still hit 13 in only 96 games. 

But he didn't say 162 game average. He said 34 per year. I will stand by my assertion that there's as much chance he hits 30 or less as of hitting 47 again. I have absolutely no problem with anyone projecting him for 35 (or even 40), but don't tell me he's a lock to hit that many.

[Moondoggie]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nothing in baseball is guaranteed.  However, there's a world of difference between playing in Baltimore and playing in Anaheim or Seattle.    I like Trumbo's chances of averaging 35 homers a season for the next three years if he's an Oriole and he's healthy.     Then the question becomes, how valuable is that, if the guy has a mediocre OBP and does not bring any significant defense value.

 

I don't disagree with that at all. My point was that there was as much chance of him hitting 25 or 30 next year as hitting 47. Personally, I think anything less than 40 probably isn't worth it considering his lack of defensive value and OBP, plus all the strikeouts (an area the O's could stand to cut down on considerably). But that can be debated.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

I don't disagree with that at all. My point was that there was as much chance of him hitting 25 or 30 next year as hitting 47. Personally, I think anything less than 40 probably isn't worth it considering his lack of defensive value and OBP, plus all the strikeouts (an area the O's could stand to cut down on considerably). But that can be debated.

I doubt he ever hits 47 again.    40, maybe.

[Ruzious]

Don't sign him for the sole reason of getting a pick.  Otherwise, I'd be fine with signing him to a reasonable contract.  He's a useful durable player, but he's replacable.  Might as well get a free pick.  

[ArtVanDelay]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nothing in baseball is guaranteed.  However, there's a world of difference between playing in Baltimore and playing in Anaheim or Seattle.    I like Trumbo's chances of averaging 35 homers a season for the next three years if he's an Oriole and he's healthy.     Then the question becomes, how valuable is that, if the guy has a mediocre OBP and does not bring any significant defense value.

 

The answer is not valuable at all.  If you turn 10-12 Trumbo homers into outs then he's probably a 0 win player. 

[Frobby]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

The answer is not valuable at all.  If you turn 10-12 Trumbo homers into outs then he's probably a 0 win player. 

I don't buy that.    Besides, nobody is saying the 10-12 homers become outs.   

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don't buy that.    Besides, nobody is saying the 10-12 homers become outs.   

Even if you turn them into doubles, I'm guessing he's a 1 win player at best. He was at 1.6 last year with the 47 homers. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Even if you turn them into doubles, I'm guessing he's a 1 win player at best. He was at 1.6 last year with the 47 homers. 

Somehow, he's been able to be worth 2 WAR a few times in his career without hitting 47 homers.     Keep him out of RF most of the time and he'll give you something half-decent, IMO.