More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

[Enjoy Terror]

On 2/7/2017 at 1:31 PM, Tryptamine said:

PECOTA is notorious for their often nonsensical predictions. Hell, right now they have the Cubs at 90-72 which is 13 fewer wins than last year despite a vastly improved pen and getting full seasons out of Schwarber/Contreras, while the Dodgers are the run away best team in the NL at 98-64. The Astros are supposedly the best team in the AL at 93-69.

Cubs: 92-70

Dodgers run away best team in NL?

Astros, the team to beat in AL?

[Enjoy Terror]

On 2/7/2017 at 2:16 PM, OrioleDog said:

It does illustrate our potential SP depth vulnerability if someone goes down.

The now 73-89 projection includes 32 GS by non-rotation members, 240 innings total of replacement level work at about 5.25 combined ERA.

Worked out to 24 starts from non-rotation members. 73 was a darn close prediction.

[Phantom]

So the smart people who created PECOTA are not so dumb, huh?

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Phantom said:

So the smart people who created PECOTA are not so dumb, huh?

Well, even when they do their very best at predicting the O's in many, many years, and come closest to our record, we still go over their projection by a little bit.   And we had to have a godawful last 23 games to only go over by a little bit.

So I think it's still safe to use their prediction as a floor each year.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Well, even when they do their very best at predicting the O's in many, many years, and come closest to our record, we still go over their projection by a little bit.   And we had to have a godawful last 23 games to only go over by a little bit.

So I think it's still safe to use their prediction as a floor each year.

Anyone know what the 2011 projection was off-hand?

[thezeroes]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone know what the 2011 projection was off-hand?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12938

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, thezeroes said:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12938

I thought I remembered that they shot high in 2011.

Predicted record: 82-80

Actual record: 69-93.

 

That's just terrible, they did an awful job.

I don't think 2011 was many, many years ago.

[eddie83]

17 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Cubs: 92-70

Dodgers run away best team in NL?

Astros, the team to beat in AL?

How many people didn't think the Dodgers would win the West? I thought the Cubs would not be quite as good. I didn't think the Dodgers would win over 100 and I didn't think the Astros would be this good   

 

[thezeroes]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I thought I remembered that they shot high in 2011.

Predicted record: 82-80

Actual record: 69-93.

 

That's just terrible, they did an awful job.

I don't think 2011 was many, many years ago.

Baltimore Orioles 82-80 projected 2011 record

Why They Might Win: They’ll win if they somehow get furloughed to one of the Central divisions, where the competition is less intense. Otherwise, they will have to settle for enjoying the fruits of a vastly improved offense due to the addition of four veterans to the lineup. Given 13 consecutive losing seasons, a .500 record would be an accomplishment worth celebrating.

Why They Might Not Win: The vets were available to the O’s for a reason: Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee are aging, J.J. Hardy is notoriously inconsistent, and Mark Reynolds is a career .235/.323/.461 hitter outside of Phoenix who failed to hit .200 last year. PECOTA sees him roughly duplicating those rates with bad defense. Although the pitching should continue to improve, particularly if top prospect Zach Britton joins the staff at some point this season, there won’t be enough offense to make a decisive difference. 

Player Who Could Surprise: Hardy. Although the 50 home runs he hit from 2007 to 2008 seem a long time ago and his overall 2010 numbers were mediocre, once he got over an injured wrist, he hit .304/.363/.442 in the second half. He’ll be a revelation after two years of Cesar Izturis and should exceed his PECOTA-projected .261/.319/.414 rates. 

Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Wieters. While fandom still waits for the soon to be 25-year-old catcher to make good on his terrific minor-league numbers, PECOTA has stopped looking for a breakout, calling for a .268/.341/.419 season. Names like Ryan Doumit and Ryan Garko are starting to show up among his comparables, two too many mediocre Ryans for a future star.

 

They actually missed by 6 wins on NYY, 7 wins on Tampa, 2 losses on Bost, 5 losses on Tor, and the 13 losses on the Orioles.

[Tryptamine]

22 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Cubs: 92-70

Dodgers run away best team in NL?

Astros, the team to beat in AL?

I'd consider it a fluke more than anything. The Cubs played the first half at two games under .500 and played the 2nd half at 24 games over .500. So yes, all it took was a fluke half to make the Cub prediction correct. As far as the Astros go, kudos on that, I didn't think they had the pitching to put up as many wins as they did.

[Just Regular]

On 10/1/2017 at 11:43 PM, Enjoy Terror said:

Worked out to 24 starts from non-rotation members. 73 was a darn close prediction.

The thing is - if we could have pitched to the "replacement" 5.25 instead of what actually happened this summer, we would have been a bit closer in the last month and less apt to have a team-wide nod off.

Though, more apt for an exhausted top player to have a final run injury ala Machado in 2013.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/7/2017 at 6:40 AM, Aristotelian said:

I don't see anything hilarious about that. The margin between a 70 win team and a 90 win team is pretty small. The Orioles have lately overperformed. It is possible that given enough chances their model will eventually predict us correctly. I had us as a 70 win team last year and was pleasantly surprised, and we have pretty much tread water this year. I would probably be more surprised by 90 wins than I would 70 wins this year. That said, they must really hate our SPs. They are basically predicting Tillman and Gausman to both have career-worst seasons, with Bundy pitching like a #5 and both Ubaldo and Miley below their norms. At least one of those guys has to step up, right?

They were spot on regarding the O's starting pitching.  If anything they were not pessimistic enough.  Looks like the O's mediocre starting pitching, great relief pitching, and hit lots of homers model is played out. 

[Camden_yardbird]

This team quit.  They were what their record said because that is what you are, but at the same time.  This offense could have won some games if they weren't so disinterested for the 2 and a half weeks.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

This team quit.  They were what their record said because that is what you are, but at the same time.  This offense could have won some games if they weren't so disinterested for the 2 and a half weeks.

It always feels that way when a team is in a deep offensive funk, but it's hard to say if they were truly disinterested, or just not hitting well.     You'd think most of these guys had plenty of financial incentive to try to hit well right to the final day.    Don't forget the team had a terrible offensive month in July 2016, while they were very much in the pennant race.   Sometimes these things just happen.